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- General Handicapping Discussion (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2)

- - Formula 2002 exacta play study (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=163069)

formula_2002

02-06-2021 10:59 AM

Formula 2002 exacta play study

Formula 2002 exacta play study

Reviewing every race, my study now includes 579 races.
45 of those races were determined to be non-playable, leaving 534 playable races.

Here are the $1 exacta returns using the top two public choices with my system horses (x) at determined bet sizes.
Column 1, x/favorite, $0.73, 13% wins
Column 2, x /second favorite, $1.23, 23% wins
Column 3, favorite/ x, $0.98, 22% wins
Column 4, second favorite / x , $0.62, 11% win

Recently, I converted these plays into a matrix format with a different bet size calculator.
I only have 75 races in this analysis returning a $1 return of $1.25, 52% wins

formula_2002

02-08-2021 09:00 AM

column #2, 1 win in last 15 races

column #2 returned $6.18 over those 15 races.

I'll post again when column #2 turns positive over the next series of races.

FakeNameChanged

02-08-2021 09:47 AM

Is there a spreadhseet link to your work? You mention columns 1,2, 3,4.

formula_2002

02-08-2021 06:06 PM

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged (Post 2700376)

Is there a spreadsheet link to your work? You mention columns 1,2, 3,4.

here is a picture of the bottom of my excel sheet..

there is some more information in the selections forum, where i occasionaly post my plays

formula_2002

02-27-2021 01:16 PM

1 Attachment(s)

an update for study

formula_2002

02-27-2021 01:29 PM

Code:

Gulfstream* Race 5 4 8 4 8 un un ov 0v 4 0 63 0 63 8 42 0 42 0 6 36 23 36 23 2 11 7 11 7 3 11 7 11 7

Code:

Gulfstream* Race 5 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 4 8 6 probability 89% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 12 0 10 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 14 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.90 0.00 36.70 0.00 37.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 208.42

formula_2002

02-27-2021 01:54 PM

4/6 exacta wins $1 track exacta payout was $10.40

the matrix bet size (straight and reverse) was $208.42
the matrix bet returned $312

the column bet 2 bet size was $100
return was $0

the total bet size was $308.42 , the return $312 (10.4 x $30)
total play bet = $208.42 +100 =$308.42
$1 return =$312/$308.42 = $1.01

formula_2002

02-27-2021 04:31 PM

Here are two additional notes about the study plays.
when there is no exacta matrix play, the col #2 $1 return is $1.35

when the is a exacta matrix play the column #3 produces a $1 return of $1.05

formula_2002

02-28-2021 05:35 PM

Code:

Fair Grounds* Race 8 3 4 3 4 un un ov 0v 3 0 70 0 70 4 43 0 43 0 8 57 30 57 30 7 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 400

formula_2002

02-28-2021 06:02 PM

Code:

Fair Grounds* Race 9 4 9 4 9 un un ov 0v 4 0 78 0 78 9 58 0 58 0 8 42 22 42 22 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 400

formula_2002

02-28-2021 06:14 PM

Code:

Santa Anita* Race 6 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 2 4 1 probability 81% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 0 12 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 2 12 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218 23.51 24.37 0.00 24.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 145.28

formula_2002

02-28-2021 06:27 PM

Code:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 10.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.31

formula_2002

02-28-2021 06:33 PM

Code:

Golden Gate* Race 6 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 4 6 1 probability 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.43 0.00 10.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.18 #DIV/0! 1 0.00 51 #DIV/0!

formula_2002

02-28-2021 06:46 PM

Code:

Santa Anita* Race 7 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 8 9 3 probability 78% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0.00 0.00 10.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.04 13.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.54

formula_2002

02-28-2021 08:09 PM

Code:

Golden Gate* Race 9 - BET SIZE $1 RETURN EX $1 PAYOUT KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 8 4 3 probability 63% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 37 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 2 3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 3 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 4 5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 5 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 6 7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 7 8 ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 8 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 9 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 10 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 11 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 12 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 13 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 14 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 15 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 16 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.71

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