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-   -   HONG KONG – SHA TIN SUN -1/17/21 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=162665)

Nitro 01-16-2021 11:08 PM

HONG KONG – SHA TIN SUN -1/17/21
 
Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’ll be posting my pre-race as well as some of the live updated selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 7 races on Turf and 3 on the Dirt

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, I’ll also be posting some live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis can certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Good Luck if you’re playing!
.

Nitro 01-16-2021 11:52 PM

Preliminary Selections for ALL 10 races:

R#1-1600M C5 (8F)T………..1-5-2 W/ 6-7-11

R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T……..….1-13-10 W/ 4-2-6

R#3–1650M C1 (8.25F)D…...1-3-2 W/ 4

R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D…...10-1-9 W/ 4-8-3

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....10-4-8 W/ 1-14-7

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....1-3-11W/ 9-7-5

R#7– 1000M C3 (5F)T…….….3-1-13 W/ 14-5-4

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D…...3-12-9 W/ 5-2-10

R#9- 1000M C2 (5F)T…..….…5-4-8 W/ 6-13-2

R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T…………4-11-8 W/ 6-10-5
.

Nitro 01-17-2021 12:10 AM

Quote:

R#1-1600M C5 (8F)T………..1-5-2 W/ 6-7-11
5-12-10-8– Dutch WIN 50% Profit Margin - PLAYED / No action on the HUGE LS Placer #12 @ 224/1 !!

Nitro 01-17-2021 12:26 AM

UPDATE ---R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T….1-13-10 W/ 4-2-7

Nitro 01-17-2021 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2694771)
UPDATE ---R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T….1-13-10 W/ 4-2-7

2-10-12-11– Dutch LOSS 5% Profit Margin - PASSED / $94.30 Quinella

Nitro 01-17-2021 01:07 AM

Quote:

UPDATE --- R#3–1650M C1 (8.25F)D…...1-3-2 W/ 4
2-5-4-3– Dutch WIN 6% Profit Margin - PASSED / No action on the LS Placer #5

Nitro 01-17-2021 01:28 AM

UPDATE --- R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D…...10-1-8 W/ 4-2-9

Nitro 01-17-2021 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2694779)
UPDATE --- R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D…...10-1-8 W/ 4-2-9

11-8-4-7– Dutch LOSS 92% Profit Margin - PLAYED / A bit of early action on the LS Winner #11

Nitro 01-17-2021 01:57 AM

UPDATE --- R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T……10-8-2 W/ 7-1-4

Nitro 01-17-2021 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2694786)
UPDATE --- R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T……10-8-2 W/ 7-1-4

6-1-3-2– Dutch LOSS 67% Profit Margin - PLAYED / No action on the BIG LS Winner #6 @ 75/1

Nitro 01-17-2021 02:32 AM

UPDATE ---R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T….1-3-12 W/ 9-7-11

Nitro 01-17-2021 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2694788)
UPDATE ---R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T….1-3-12 W/ 9-7-11

5-11-13-1– Dutch LOSS 39% Profit Margin - PASSED / Very late solid action on the LS Winner #5 (part of the early picks)

Nitro 01-17-2021 03:00 AM

UPDATE ---R#7– 1000M C3 (5F)T……3-13-14 W/ 1-4-5

Nitro 01-17-2021 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2694790)
UPDATE ---R#7– 1000M C3 (5F)T……3-13-14 W/ 1-4-5

1-3-13-4– Dutch LOSS 22 % Profit Margin - PASSED / $26.80 Quinella & $256.00 Triple BX & ($2,067.80 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

Nitro 01-17-2021 03:32 AM

UPDATE ---R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D….3-9-7 W/ 12-5-10


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