Cigar Mile
 

Race - Aqueduct - Saturday, December 1st, 2018
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $750,000. Cigar Mile H.



1 Mendelssohn..........Moore Ryan L.
2 Sunny Ridge..........Ortiz, Jr. Irad
3 Pat On the Back......Davis Dylan
4 Stan the Man ........Cancel Eric
5 Copper Town..........Castellano Javier
6 True Timber..........Bravo Joe
7 Timeline.............Velazquez John R
8 Patternrecognition...Ortiz Jose L.


:1: Mendelssohn - if at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try..........
:2: Sunny Ridge - 2-3-2 in his oly three 1 turn races
:3: Pat on the Back - beaten a neck and a nose in his 4 start for Englehart
:5: Coppertown - done nothing wrong, but will he cause a pace meltdown
today?
:6: True Timber - not with your money
:7: Timeline - last race makes him a contender p finally getting back to last year's good form?
:8: Pattern Recognition - probably can't win today's race shape


:3::2::5::7:

Not a huge fan of the race, but I'll take a shot with Timeline if 8-1 or more. TimeformUS has a fast pace being likely, he has the best Late Pace rating, and he had a very tough trip last time on a track coded red (speed favoring) in a race that had a slow pace (blue pace figures).

MOTO play is the 8.


Undefeated at track and distance
won a G2 last out
popped a career best 103 at CD (course and distance) in the spring.

top trainer and jock
3 consecutive triple digit beyers


whats not to like (the price...yuck)



Allan

I like the :3: as well, and he's really the only one in the field I'd be interested in at the price he'll be offered at.

Maybe :3: / :1::2: / :1::2: if I did play for the ex and tri, which I probably won't.

Copper Town, Sunny Ridge, Timeline.

Could be value in the race if Mendelssohn and/or Patternrecognition take a ton of money.

How many cross Atlantic trips has Mendelssohn made? And a trip to Dubai as well.

I don't think he has left since rolling in for the Kentucky Derby. I certainly could be wrong.

:1: Mendelssohn

:3: Pat On the Back

:5: Copper Town

:4: Stan the Man

In that order, GL.

$2 Ex Box :2:, :7:, :8:

He's been back and forth each time. A NYRA press release for the Cigar Mile mentions him having to clear quarantine at Belmont before being able to ship to Aqueduct.

He was in Ireland between the Jockey Club Gold Cup and BC Classic, too.

Welp. I was wrong.:pound:


That is just shit-assed stupid. No other way to put it.

Honest Opinions
 

:1: Mendelssohn - O'Brien is getting the hang of this thing of ours. Next crop or three, he could produce a Derby contender... This horse made us some money so far due to his popularity. However, he has shown to be a tough horse and has matured as they tried to make him into a speed horse. Today he gets significant pace relief, and the Pletcher horse may not even fire. Not a ton of value here, but he's a top contender to run off with this race and Win.

:2: Sunny Ridge is a hard-hitter. If Mendelssohn or Copper Town don't make their own luck, this guy is going to feast.

:3: Pat on the Back is a cool NY-bred. You really have to root for him. Others appear more likely.

:4: Stan the Man - "Stan the Man Musial" The 'Donora Dandy'. How can I not like a hunch play with a horse sharing the nickname of Donora boy? Others appear more likely.

:5: Copper Town - Flip a coin. Heads you got a talent to keep Mendelssohn honest or even wire this field. Tails you got a sprinter with some talent and some issues, and they are praying they can hold him together in hopes to add a Grade-1 to his nice pedigree for breeding purposes.

:6: True Timber - Hopes to 'suck up' in a race where the pace scenario is too formidable for his participation. Not a bad horse. He could trip into a board spot if he's forward and conservative on 'cruise control'. He could be dead last if he tries. Price is decent enough for gimmicks, but unlikely to make a winning bid.

:7: Timeline - Handsome boy has matured into a grinding OC/$$ type. Hasn't lived up to his precocious start. I think he'll finish in front of his stablemate today. Tough to win with those horses trying to win on the lead, and with Sunny Ridge being a better stalker. I like Timeline, and he's finally a usable price. Jumps off the page as a key underneath of a Trifecta and Superfecta.

:8: Pattern Recognition - He's been really thriving this season, and he's a solid OC/$$ type who can capitalize when there aren't good horses on the pace. This is kind of a bad race for him. A harsh, rude awakening type of thing. You look to exclude Pattern Recognition from the exacta in your exactas, tris, supers... You can't blame the connections or the trainers for entering, and I'm sure he'll bounce back for more nice optional claimer type of races.

I don't know how much speed relief he's really getting. Patternrecognition will be on or near the lead after several extended sprints this summer. True Timber is stretching out to a mile after several sprints and has flashed speed in his two-turn tries. Copper Town, off a long layoff last out, broke poorly but advanced to the front as soon as he recovered--he set fast paces in his races at a mile or more last year.

It's probably moot since Mendelssohn has drawn the rail, but given his modicum of stamina in longer races (he usually only caves in the final 1/16th), he might be better served with a stalking trip. He was fried when facing sprint speed in the one-turn mile Dwyer in the summer. He has a router's early speed--geared towards controlling the pace, not outgunning everything else--but this race might lean towards some sprint speed.

Ryan Moore worked out a similar trip for him in the BC Juvenile Turf way back when, and he broke from the rail that day, too.

Full on buying the :5: Copper Town in this very weak G1 field. 2/1 or better is a play.

Will look to get :3: Pat On the Back in the 2 hole or :2: Sunny Ridge or :8: Patternrecognition

Pattern Recognition and True Timber aren't up to the task. Non factors.

Yea, if Copper Town is blazing on a mission, you'd prefer Mendelssohn cruise along off of him and not lock into some all out duel, but it's not like Mendelssohn is going to have to fight for position out of the gate. This Mile at Aqueduct doesn't call for that, especially in this field.

Just break, and cruise near the lead and try to go on.

I've bet against Mendelssohn in 5 straight races, and it's been good to me. Today he's a player.