What's up with the Capper?
 

Because of some recent post that question what I'm up to, I'll just post my answer here.

After 5 profitable years as a low roller, I move up to roller. My average size bet jumped from about $6 to $12 a race to $12 to $24. I blew it and had a bad year and lost money. I couldn't figure out what went wrong, was it a losing streak or my new wagering methods? Or did racing catch me unaware and changed again right under my feet?

I still have my day job. So my time is very limited. I usually wager only one card a week on Saturdays. So about a year and a half ago, I thought that I would rewrite my app and, hopefully, find out what happened. The rewrite was suppose to take 6 moths. Now a year and half later, I'm hoping to get it finished in 6 months.

As I go through my rewrite, I find questions to post about of interest to me and hopefully others too. As for what happened to my winning years, I believe it was mostly my new more aggressive wagering approach going for the big money that might of worked against me in conjunction with a losing streak. At the time I thought I had the game beat. And what about now? I'm willing to lose money for the next 6 months to year and enjoy myself while I get all my ducks back in a row. Meaning, as I go through my rewrite, I'll post what I find interesting. As for those who claim that I am secretly hunting for answers, I have one question for you. Did you have a five year winning streak? If so, then we need to talk. Otherwise, enjoy my post.

The best modelers/scientists, etc. tend to have a deep understanding of what they're reasoning about. This allows them to create abstractions that facilitate/illuminate reasoning about the target.

You approach the game in terms of abstractions created by others. As your understanding of the thing itself is quite poor, you lack the ability to properly assess the abstractions. You know what your data tells you but you don't understand why.

You've come to it ass backwards and you constantly post these childish perspectives. Anyone can be profitable if they identify a few patterns and only play under optimal conditions. When they step outside of the little pond and try to make some real money, they fall on their faces. Face it, you don't know the game and thus don't really have a clue, let alone a strong opinion.

On the other hand, plenty of someone-else's-abstractions players out there, which is actually a good thing.

I've always enjoyed your posts, Al. Some thought provoking, some not so much....but always enjoyable. I keep fooling around with software, or paper & pencil methods, but maintain my profitable core angles. You'll re-find your profit zone... Good luck :)
-NCG

This kind of criticism is what I was trying to address. Why I get it, I don't know. I can only guess that making some people think pushes them out of their comfort zone.

Somehow you have made 5 years of profitability sound inconsequential. You have no idea of what I know or don't know, yet you insult me as if I know very little. And the funniest thing is that you assume I don't know my data. Kick a cat if you need something to kick. Please leave me out of it.

Thanks. I have seen my stuff work. Why else would I take my time carefully to rebuild and get back into my system? Good luck with the angles.

I hope you don't think that this is more "criticism", Al...because all I am trying to do is understand you better. You said in your initial post here that your aggressive "go-for-the-big-money" approach might have been responsible for your most recent losing streak...and yet, you revealed earlier that you wagered from $6 to $12 a race during your 5 winning years. Is this type of betting really well-suited for "going for the big money"? What "big money" can the player go after when his betting scale reaches from $6 to $12 a race?

Or is it that you decided to go for the "big money" only later, when you increased your bets to $12-$24 dollars a race? But the increased wager amount couldn't have brought about the losing streak...unless you radically changed your playing method. And why would you change a playing method that had provided 5 consecutive years of profits for you?

Only a person with out any class would post something like the above:mad:

The plan was to keep doubling up; 12 to 24 followed by 24 to 48 etc... I know your low wagers are much bigger than my big ones. So be it. I've always claimed to be a low-roller. Sometimes I even referred to myself as a mini-roller. It is what it is.

Why do you think that increasing your betting unit might have led to your losing streak? Did you also change your playing style when you upped your bets?

A rise from $6-$12 to $12-$24 dollars isn't the type of increase that leads to stepping out of one's "comfort zone".

I changed my wagering ways and with more money became the wheel. I underestimated how important narrowing my wager was when I had less money and keeping my focus on the key(s).

Change of focus equals change of results.

When you hedge with wheels versus focus with key{s} you generate more losing bets. Your results indicate just that.

Return to your original bet size because you have mastered that process.

Good Luck

At least your honest. do you write in OO and use a DB, or pay a guy?
if you made no changes maybe the bet size did it. fear can change your bet, betsize. And no I do not have a 5 year winning streak,

It's C++ using a little OO programing. The problem was that I kept developing the original programming while I fell deeper and deeper into the hole.

As far as a DB is concerned, I have been mostly tracking results on spreadsheets on an as need basis while developing. Once the system is up, I'll get serious with a DB.

my first program was in C++ and I used oracle. Oracle too slow on a standalone, I tossed Oracle and went to one super huge multi-dimensional array , ran selection sorts off the key value a million ways went old school.

One day my PC crashed , could not recover, and I had no backup. 2nd version I switched to Java and Mysql , took me 2 days to parse and load the DB. and you'll remember everything you did in the past.

good luck

I don't know if you have studied courses or worked in an environments with financial decisions under risk, but your post gives me the reader an insight about you and it is that you have a good understanding about risk and decision making.