As always, thanks for the update.

Helping me get used to TimeformUS and learn how to use the pace figures.


Was interested to see what you guys had for Magnum Moon's Bluegrass. Looks like a moderate-to-slow pace. A little slower paced, and a little slower final time than most top derby preps. Not quite an auto-toss, but worth considering the pace figures when handicapping this guy.

Well if you want to know who can win the fall apart race with a fast pace its My Boy Jack, done it twice now.

Its also worth noting that while its very easy to discount closers who won off fall apart race it does tell you that when there is a fast pace they can finish.

I often see horses who closed off average paces do little with fast paces. I chalk this up to they had to be used more to stay within contact of the leaders and thus did not have the same punch as they did with an average, or even sometimes slow pace.

While I almost auto discount fall apart closer winners next out due to price in the case of the Derby I would not. Vinno Rosso and My Boy Jack would come to mind.

This is such a great point and one I always like to point out when evaluating closers. Many players do not get the implications. Many dismiss closers who win when the pace in front of them is fast. But lesser closers would get stranded by the fast pace. The ability to finish fast vs fast is the only thing that matters. I talked about this til I was blue in the face last year and folks weren't getting it. Good to see your post here GMB.

Always have to have a comprehensive understanding of the horse, and an opinion about how today's race projects.

'auto-toss' is a tough game to play with proven stakes horses. If I'm auto-tossing a dream pace setup horse, it has to do with value. I know in my gut that he's still capable of beating me, but I feel the public is betting him based on his best-case-scenario.
I'm also generally harder on Early types who scored on a slow pace, than I am on closers. Again, some of this comes back to price, some has to do with the dynamics mentioned in this thread by you and Cincy (fast early fast late).


some random personal thoughts on some of the extreme paced TimeformUS races

Arkansas Derby= Magnum Moon- ran fine. Stylish, good looking colt. I just don't feel he proved to me that he's a top-tier colt yet. Nothing really negative from the effort.
Quip- Was less impressed with Quip. His Tampa and his Arkansas Derby were both really soft up front. Even his allowance was a soft paced race. Faced a fast pace in the KYJC and didn't do much. Unfortunately he won't take enough money to really gain an edge by tossing.
Solomini- Had a wide trip and had to close against the slow pace. He didn't change leads which is his own fault but there's room for improvement from the pace and the footwork.

Florida Derby= Audible's Florida Derby set up great for him, but the Holy Bull was a soft pace and he was just as impressive. I'm more inclined to distrust Hofburg(even though I picked him as a key in that race) because he simply followed Audible's great setup and doesn't have a race like the Holy Bull in his resume to look back on. Promises Fulfilled- Gets another chance due to the first turn, but have a feeling he's not the 2nd coming of Shackleford.

Wood= Vino Rosso had a great setup, but he ran legitimately well, and he was an odd case of a distance loving grinder, whose had all very slow paced races until the Wood. I still don't know if he's more than a very good grinder, but even if that's the case he'll be passing horses.
Enticed had a little worse trip, and you can't rule out that it cost him a couple lengths. May be some trip-capping value in Enticed, if you actually like him.

My Boy Jack = great mud ride in the Southwest, good setups in La Derby and Lexington. But you know he's a quality horse that has been trained-up to close and pick up pieces. You know the jockey and the horse have a special relationship. The more adversity, weather, etc... that hits the fan, this triple crown journey - the more Kent and Jack are going to be capitalizing. And you will get a square price. There's nothing smart about auto-tossing a good price because of an angle.
To be honest, I'm not specifically high on the horse, but it wouldn't surprise me either way if he ran 2nd or ran 12th or anywhere in between.

You guys do a 'Pace Projector' yet?

Plenty of new stuff added today:

https://timeformusblog.com/2018/01/2...-triple-crown/

You're slacking...need the Peter Pan...as that horse will run in the Belmont...always used a prep...:coffee:

Not going to add it to the sheet since it isn't a Derby points race or TC race, but here is the chart of the race with figures:

https://image.ibb.co/deFcBT/PeterPan.png

In the TUS charts, and this image, is weight factored in. I know it is in the spreadsheet.

No, and not in the spreadsheet either.

Thanks for posting....thought it was included in previous years as all...but those years have been deleted...guessing cause they had proprietary iinfo...or I'm going senile...:eek:

thanks again.

So with weight factored in the 128 would go up if he was to carry less? Not sure how this actually works.