it took me a few days to try to put this on a fundamental basis, what i see are long term interest rates up double off the bottom. i see oil having run to fast to the upside and should back down to around $50 per barrel. most important number that i see is that people on margin are at all time highs. once they get called in, it will exaggerate the downward move. you have a great shot to be right on your call for about 500 s+p points going south the way the stars are aligned now.

This article at The Motley Fool site goes into four reasons the author thinks a short term pullback could be in the works.

If markets do pull back in the short term, I see these two as key:

1. Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio (all time high.)

2. Stock Buybacks (on the decline.)


-jp

.

I don't know...market crashes don't usually begin with the media predicting a market crash...:lol:

This market could melt up for a while....

ain't that always the case!

pretty strong day for AMV,V today. that went up another 30% today.. its over a 10 bagger since i pumped this thing 2 months ago when it was selling for .22, now $2.63.

another good pump was MP which also had a stellar day today up $5.49 or 15%. i pumped that one 6 months ago at $11.50 now $40.75.


my main pump now is MUX. that baby inched up with volume today while gold got hammered. under full disclosure, i have been Mr. Wrong on this one for the past 10 years and i am a very stubborn bastard. i read a book somewhere that told you to redact the name of the equity and do your analysis fundamental or technical without looking at the name. no doubt i didn't listen to my own advice. but that being said right here and right now, if i was looking at this thing for the first time without knowing the name, i would be buying with both hands.

the 13 f filings are coming in now and Fidelity and Wellington are relentless sellers of Barrick Gold. this stock is never going up until these guys are done selling.

Fidelity is also lightening up on their AMZN holdings. i am going to look through the rest of the high flyers as the reports come in.

gold and gold miners have been getting slammed as of late. dating back to 2008 when the same thing happened, it turned out to be a pre-curser to a major top in the S+P.

currently gold and many other commodities including copper, silver and various soft commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans etc. all look great.

if anyone was looking at getting involved in junior minors, i would take a look at Liberty Gold at around $1.40 canadian (support level). Rio2 .70 canadian (support level).

MUX
 

Excerpts from a Markets Daily article:

Roth Capital boosted their price objective on McEwen Mining from $1.90 to $2.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Friday, January 8th.


A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the business. SG Americas Securities LLC boosted its stake in McEwen Mining by 19.2% in the fourth quarter. SG Americas Securities LLC now owns 70,381 shares of the basic materials company’s stock worth $69,000 after buying an additional 11,345 shares in the last quarter.


Teacher Retirement System of Texas boosted its stake in McEwen Mining by 57.5% in the fourth quarter. Teacher Retirement System of Texas now owns 31,738 shares of the basic materials company’s stock worth $31,000 after buying an additional 11,585 shares in the last quarter.


UBS Asset Management Americas Inc. boosted its stake in McEwen Mining by 3.9% in the third quarter. UBS Asset Management Americas Inc. now owns 361,015 shares of the basic materials company’s stock worth $383,000 after buying an additional 13,420 shares in the last quarter.


Heathbridge Capital Management Ltd. boosted its stake in McEwen Mining by 35.3% in the fourth quarter. Heathbridge Capital Management Ltd. now owns 54,100 shares of the basic materials company’s stock worth $53,000 after buying an additional 14,100 shares in the last quarter.


Finally, California Public Employees Retirement System boosted its stake in McEwen Mining by 2.5% in the third quarter. California Public Employees Retirement System now owns 726,640 shares of the basic materials company’s stock worth $770,000 after buying an additional 17,500 shares in the last quarter. 16.02% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

the above post represents a cross section of different institutional holders that have fallen into the same trap as myself!!

i hope they wind up being right, because i am never selling.

today bitcoin traded with a $10,000 range in one day.. this thing is no investment, a matter of fact to me its completely un tradeable, so as far as i am concerned its completely useless.

Gold
 

Gold looks to me like it's trying to make a bottom. It has been below its 250 day EMA for a few days, and closed above it yesterday. I need to see it close above its 20 MA to get interested. But it's made several of these head fakes in the recent past. Usually, the 250 day has been fairly reliable where it bounces. if the tech sector drags the whole market down, then it may be on.

the way to the money these days is to be selling premiums on options or etf structures. there is tremendous whipsaw action... if you are not in the trade over night, you are not participating in the action.

personally, i have no idea how to handicap premium moves, so i stay away. i know that most of the action is predicated on open interest and expiration. for someone that can figure out where the best place for those options to expire worthless with the buyers losing the biggest amounts, they can score big.

cost to mine bitcoin
 

regular electric costs are about $4200 per coin. it cost you some money to buy a machine that runs all day..

https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-m...0per%20bitcoin.

Gold & Silver
 

I may have been a bit premature about trying to make a bottom. Gold dropped below its 250 day average for the last four days. It sits closer to a 375 day average, not that it has any meaning. The 8 day EMA has crossed below the 250 day, and the 20 day MA is about to do the same. Wrong direction for a bullish case on gold.

Silver, still looks neutral to mildly bullish in comparison but needs to overtake the high close on Feb1 of $29.42 to make its case. That high on Feb 1, overtook the previous closing high back on Aug 10, 2020, by a small amount. Surprisingly, that was approx. the same date for a high water mark for Gold back in August.

If the dollar continues to strengthen, then the metals both look to continue down (gold) or tread water (silver). All reports on the news is the economy is strengthening, which bodes well for the dollar IMO.