Gotham
 

Tough race; no cakewalk for HANSEN. Going to give TIGER WALK a long look, but he's kind of marooned out there as no. :13: .


Ocala Mike

Hansen changing bit and blinkers off, 12 post and likely trying to rate a tad. All of those things are new and makes him a great bet against here.

Race might fall apart. I have #2 Stealcase on top but am a slightly concerned after watching replay of last when he couldn't have had a better trip. However, word has been out for a while and willing to give him a shot here.

I do agree with other poster who liked some things related to #7 Suns Out Guns Out. It is a maiden but good speed figures, two long races and catches a field of possible heavy-legged runners late. Might be motoring at boxcars. Great blowout a few days ago, too.


By the way-- am I crazy to think the other five might let #2 Royal Currier all alone in the Tom Fool? I would think the other speed candidates would be saving something for Caleb Posse late. Usually when that happens, it gets lazy on the lead.

MY ADONIS is the wiseguy horse.
He's ok, but I would hate to play him. Will be overbet.

Hansen should win this easily. Very little has been made of the fact that Hansen stumbled at the start in the Holy Bull and then immediately used horse to make the lead. Today, assuming a clean break he easily controls the pace and figures a perfect ride. There are no Algorithms or Union Rags in this field.

Done Talking is a better horse than My Adonis. Nobody is catching runaway Hansen, but if Hansen quits DT has a good shot to win.

Dan and Sheila is a contender.

My Adonis, Finnegans Wake, and Tiger Walk make up the fringe contenders.

This field is oozing with mediocrity. I have no qualms whatsoever about post 12. Hansen is the best horse in the field.

My Adonis is the question mark - how will he run today? If he runs back to his previous races prior to the last one, I think Hansen eats him up in the second fraction. But MA ran a monster F2 after the trouble, and tied his best ever F3. I just think he needs to improve too much to be worth what will probably be under-layed odds.

Two That will not surprise me with a big race are Pletcher's Raconteur and Dutrow's King and Crusader. I will have both of them covered today.

Here's the play (and it's quite a spread):

EX
:8: :11: w :4: :5:

EX
:4: :5: w :1: :4: :5: :8: :10: :11: :12: :13:

WIN
:5: :8:

If you don't like Hansen in the win hole i gotta believe a spread is in order. Lotsa overlaid prices...exotics should be big.
I will be playing a few 10cent supers here but don't wanna bore folks with all the numbers...know that Hansen won't be on top on any of my tix though.
He's the fastest (as a 2yr old), but my figs have Raconteur and Pretension as running the best last out numbers this year.
Good luck...tough race.

Hansen looks a little lighter today.

not emaciated but he may have lost a few lbs but on the flipside is carrying his weight well.

Found a new way to do it today. My Adonis ran very well. Worth the talk.

No excuse for D&S #6

CHRIS FARLEY HORSERACING SKIT
 

SONNNNAAFVA BEEEEEE!!!! :bang:

Rated kindly....very impressive!

i know he didn't beat squat.. but he looked quite good doing it. he was still running at the end. maybe that's the ticket for him to rate

Congratulations to the winner today in the Gotham, he showed the right stuff. And a good fine job by the track Superintendent there at AQ as they did a fine right job in getting that track nice and tight before the race.

Once again, congratulations to Hansen and his connections.

I agree, I think the track was a bit faster for those last three races; maybe .6 of a second for the Gotham compared to earlier routes. But doing some quick and dirty calcs, that still puts Hansen at something probably around a 103 Beyer.

Another mixed bag from Hansen.
Failed to explode early as is his trademark(By design? ). Rated kindly, but then was very green while having to actually maneuver a stalking trip. Much the best when allowing for the wide first turn. While I tend to think he will get exposed eventually as he approaches the Grade I level of competition, what I will say is that this new found ability to press and pounce will bode well in general at levels where he does fit.

Prelim Beyer is listed at 95. So they're claiming that the track sped up by 11 Beyer points (1.2 seconds at 8.5f) between the Top Flight and the Gotham. Specifically, from the other numbers it looks like they're saying it sped up by several points immediately between the 6th and 7th races and then another few points just before the Tom Fool and Gotham. Then reversed and slowed again by several points for the last race.

Write me down as "skeptical." I don't make dirt or poly figs anymore and perhaps overestimated the route variant by a length or two when I analyzed quickly, but on second blush I would estimate it at 100. 95 is too low.

Not sure what I was thinking here; the last race is actually in line with the Tom Fool number so they didn't readjust. When the simple math fools me it's time to quit. With a night's sleep I might think they're right about the Gotham number, too.