All Faves to W, P & S
 

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trying to remember from Tom Ainslie's old book - I don't have it - about how betting all and only faves cut into the takeout


iirc all faves to win lost about 12%

all faves to place lost about 9%

all faves to show lost about 6%


I'm all but sure it's much different now because of the small fields - and prolly place and show lose much more

does anybody know what the stats are now_____?

I don't bet only faves but I'm very curious

thanks

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Have the takeouts on the WPS pools stayed about the same over the decades?

This is 2022, so about the same as 2023 so far:

Last one, for contrast...all non-favorites, 2022:

I haven't done a study of this but I think the differences in takeout from one track to another and from decades past to now are fairly small in w, p, s

I think there are greater differences from track to track in the exotics

not sure how the takeout on the exotics of yesteryear compare to today



and to CJ - thanks

and wow - that's a huge difference between faves and non faves

prolly an even much bigger difference if looking just at shots going off over 10/1

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People should look at that comparison very carefully. I brought this up years ago, but the data screams it here.

Let's assume you have even marginal skill at identifying reasonably bet favorites vs. very overbet or bad favorites.

That means the "legitimate favorite" category ROI would be even better than the "all favorite" category above and the "all non favorite" category ROI would be a monumental disaster against those "legitimate favorites".

That means any time you handicap a race, come up with favorite as the most likely winner, and think he's a solid horse, you better have a damn good reason to play against him because you are playing a game where the expected long term ROI is going to be quite bad.