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-   -   Sunland Derby (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=151070)

f2tornado 03-18-2019 02:03 PM

Sunland Derby
 
:1:. Mucho Gusto, 8-5 (Mucho Macho Man – Bob Baffert/Joe Talamo – 4:3-1-0 – $234,000)

:2:. Anothertwistafate, 3-1 (Scat Daddy – Blaine Wright/ – 4:3-0-0 – $94,545)

:3:. Hustle Up, 5-1 (Abstraction – Todd Fincher/Juan Hernandez – 10:8-0-0 – $363,143)

:4:. Wicked Indeed, 6-1 (Tapit – Steve Asmussen/Luis Contreras – 4:1-1-1 – $57,330)

:5:. Cutting Humor, 8-1 (First Samurai – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 5:1-2-1 – $56,167)

:6:. Walker Stalker, 15-1 (Stroll – Jose Gonzalez Jr./Alejandro Medellin – 3:1-1-1 – $25,720)

:7:. Pasamonte Man, 20-1 (Strong Mandate – Joel Marr/Ken Tohill – 3:0-1-0 – $9,288)

:8:. Collusionist, 25-1 (Ez Effort – O. A. Martinez Jr./Alfredo Juarez Jr. – 5:2-1-0 – $45,751)

:9:. Diamond Blitz, 15-1: (Munnings – Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux – 6:1-0-0 – $29,511)

:10:. Eye Cloud, 30-1 (Point of Entry – Tracy Norris/Isaias Enriquez – 8:2-0-1 – $43,050)

I have little enthusiasm for this race but it might just be an easy one for wagering purposes. It could very well end up in order of post position. Cheap Hi5 play. I'm not convinced the :1: is a 9F horse but this field is pretty mediocre beyond the :2:. I wasn't that inspired by Anothertwisafate in the El Camino but it was nine panels and it was a triple digit Equibase figure... but it was all weather surface. The next three have some work to do. The rest appear to be also-rans. Perhaps the :7: will appreciate some added distance and ruin some dime superfecta plays as it did make up four lengths on the leader in the MTB.

letswastemoney 03-18-2019 06:45 PM

I only recognize 4 horses. I don't even know who Hustle Up is lol.

I was assigned this race for Horse Racing Nation, so hopefully I have a more clever opinion than Mucho Gusto.

ReplayRandall 03-18-2019 08:55 PM

Rare is a Derby prep race that has an "8" time winner and a winless maiden competing.

Robert Fischer 03-19-2019 11:27 AM

3/2
 
Mucho Gusto is a significant overlay as far down as 3/2 for this race.

Will he go off 3/2 or higher?

One thing that will help his price is that his speed figures(from Beyer, TFUS, Bris etc... - I haven't looked at sheets/thoro) for the Robert B. Lewis were several points too low.

His 5-length loss to Improbable (a horse who happened to finish 2nd this weekend and burned a lot of bandwagon-money), may also contribute to an indecisive Public.

GMB@BP 03-19-2019 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2442916)
Mucho Gusto is a significant overlay as far down as 3/2 for this race.

Will he go off 3/2 or higher?

One thing that will help his price is that his speed figures(from Beyer, TFUS, Bris etc... - I haven't looked at sheets/thoro) for the Robert B. Lewis were several points too low.

His 5-length loss to Improbable (a horse who happened to finish 2nd this weekend and burned a lot of bandwagon-money), may also contribute to an indecisive Public.

He feels more like 4-5 in this spot.

jocko699 03-19-2019 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2443100)
He feels more like 4-5 in this spot.

Agree but thinking he may even go to 3-5. The :2: is way over their head IMO.

rastajenk 03-20-2019 08:22 AM

Collusionist sounds like a currently trendy hunch-play name.

jay68802 03-20-2019 02:10 PM

Would love the :2: at the morning line. His last race is by far the best in this field.

Afleet 03-20-2019 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2443254)
Would love the :2: at the morning line. His last race is by far the best in this field.

cant see how he doesn't get a good trip here, not sure if he is better than Bafferts horse

jay68802 03-20-2019 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afleet (Post 2443268)
cant see how he doesn't get a good trip here, not sure if he is better than Bafferts horse

I am pretty sure he easily handled a Baffert horse in the last. Or maybe Hollendorfer? And by the way, I had bacon and eggs for breakfast, or was it oatmeal?

Afleet 03-20-2019 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2443274)
I am pretty sure he easily handled a Baffert horse in the last. Or maybe Hollendorfer? And by the way, I had bacon and eggs for breakfast, or was it oatmeal?

forgot about that; he smoked a Baffert Tapit horse who just got back on the worktab

Tee 03-20-2019 08:02 PM

Wicked Indeed and / or Cutting Humor could find the early pace to their liking.

boys at tosconova 03-21-2019 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall (Post 2442778)
Rare is a Derby prep race that has an "8" time winner and a winless maiden competing.

haha

charlie hustle...they lucked out with this horse. i have my doubts but i hope he keeps it up.

airford1 03-24-2019 08:09 PM

Anothertwistafate My Dervy horse. On to the Kentucky Dervy.

jocko699 03-24-2019 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocko699 (Post 2443102)
Agree but thinking he may even go to 3-5. The :2: is way over their head IMO.

Eating crow. The 2 raced very well!!!!!!


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