Arrogate's Next Race
 

Pretty simple. Where should he race next?

Last I saw it doesn't matter what we think, Classic is his next start. Breeders' Cup has destroyed other stakes around the country.

He ran well enough to go in the Breeders' Cup. Had he finished far back it might be a different story.

Baffert will start lobbying for more clay in the surface for Breeders' Cup starting yesterday IMO.

I agree he goes straight to the BC. If Baffert did decide he neeeded a prep, it would be the Awesome Again. No way does this horse go to New York before the BC.

Do you toss him out of the pick 4 and pick 6 BC day? I'm inclined to say yes if someone runs big in the Travers. He will definitely be an underlay again in the BC

I think you have to, subject to change based on who else makes it to the race and if Arrogate suddenly starts working lights out or resembling his old self.

On that note, over the last couple of years I've heard a few trainers complaining that they were sorry they ran at Belmont on JCGC day, and blaming the short rest (4 weeks) for their BC loss. This doesn't bode well for Belmont.

I'd head for the Woodward

Get off that Del Mar track and answer the question on whether or not the surface is a problem

This has been known for awhile. Hoppertunity, a consistent loser in California, winning it last year certainly underscored it.

The trainers don't like the 10 furlongs either.

Honestly I actually think it is silly. If I had a New York handicap star, I would prep for the BC in the JCGC. 4 weeks is plenty of time to come back. But the JCGC has probably been hurt more than any other race by the BC other than maybe the DC International.

I know the speed figures are there, at least for the last race, but he just doesn't look like the same horse when I see him run. Who am I going to believe, my lying eyes or the lying speed figures?

BCC: Where he'll probably go. A loss would devalue his breeding prospects and they'll never know if it was the track surface.

Awesome again stakes: I can't see the greatest Thoroughbred that has ever lived running for that chump change. ($300k) Not sure if they would up the purse.

Woodward: Why not? The SPA is where he broke the track record, which has stood since time immemorial. Also, would give him an 8-week rest for the BCC.

JSGC: This is my vote.

Pegasus: He would have to kiss 2017 HOY good bye, but if he needs a rest, he needs a rest. He could go into the breeding shed from here and not miss the 2018 breeding season.

Santa Anita Handicap (in the spring): Ditto, but would miss the breeding season, so they would only do this if they intended to run him another year; they would be taking a big gamble here.

Retire him : If he's not 100%, this might be the thing to do.

Jockey Club Gold Cup and Clark Handicap.

Retire with 2017 Horse of the Year honors by picking up 4 Grade I wins. He doesn't need the Breeders' Cup. I know they won't take this route though.

he's going to go straight to the Breeders Cup and hope that GUNRUNNER catches a cupcake field in his prep. i happen to know that team GUNRUNNER isn't going to run in an easy field and get wiped out in the Breeders Cup. they think they have the goods and want to face only the best.

I know missing the BC worked for Rachel Alexandra and Holy Bull, but this is the sort of thing that's going to stop working at some point. If Gun Runner continues winning everything and wins the Classic, or if a three year old steps forward (I know, that division sucks as of now, but still), or even if Collected wins out, there's going to be plenty of people who are not going to want to reward Arrogate for ducking the BC. Especially if there isn't an excuse (Rachel and the Bull at least had the argument that they had hard campaigns).

The JCGC is just not that relevant to HOTY considerations anymore. I don't think Arrogate's connections can get away with that unless the division falls apart.

We're certainly all entitled to our opinions, but unless you've only been playing the game for a few years, declaring that Arrogate is the "greatest Thoroughbred that has ever lived" is about as valid as saying the sun rises in the West.

For those who still can't get over Arrogate's 2 recent races and perhaps thinking that the single race in Dubai may have had a negative impact on future events, just think about what those 2 recent races might have done: Both mentally and physically!

The BC Premiers at HST - a mile and three furlongs on the bullring would be ideal...