Just going off memory (so correct me if I'm wrong), I thought Thunder Gulch got smoked by Wild Syn in one of the Florida prep races?

It was the Blue Grass. The race was billed as a rematch between Thunder Gulch and Suave Prospect who dueled together in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby (Thunder Gulch won both photos). Instead, Wild Syn was allowed to walk on the lead in an era when Keeneland was considering a conveyor belt for speed horses while the jockeys on the two favorites (Pat Day and Julie Krone) waited on one another to make the first move.

I'm not sure why that made Thunder Gulch a toss in the Derby, going off at nearly 30-1, but I suppose he simply got overlooked in the big field, especially with the recent defeat, the musical jockeys (Gary Stevens was his 3rd rider in as many starts), and the fact that trainer Wayne Lukas had two other top prospects in champion juvenile Timber Country and iron filly Serena's Song.

Thank-you for that.

Thanks for another bad memory. I recall yelling profanities at Patient Pat at a local OTB while flinging losing tickets in the air. I ate a lot of crackers for the next 2 weeks.

RR

A little color on Thunder Gulch story, he was completely washed out before the Bluegrass, I am not sure if it was a reaction to the big crowd, or in those days Lukas was doing some interesting things too. Three weeks later he won the Derby at a huge price, and he looked the part!

WOW! No matter what number you gave him in his 1st race he ran better than that number today!

Today was my 1st and last time betting against him. My only concern is if he comes out of the race ok.

Yeah, that is something special. But I will bet against at right price.

Amazing horse though, the 3 is quite a horse and had no chance.

Loose on the lead at Santa Anita going 1:12 and change, there was no way anyone would catch him. Now he gets to travel, face a real field of horses with a big bullseye on his back. That's a lot to overcome for a favorite and makes him a strong bet against.

Add that Bolt d'Oro grabbed a quarter and a mile and a quarter is probably too long for him, I don't see the winner coming from California this year.

OOOPS!!

The first chink in the armor is exposed.

I'll never forget the final 5/16ths that American Pharoah ran in the slop in Arkansas which totally gave it away that he wouldn't have any problem with the classic distances. Sorry folks. We didn't see that from this one at Santa Anita. There was absolutely zip impressive about his final 3/8ths.

Somebody a number of pages back questioned his distance limitations (maybe Spaulding?). I think he was on to something. Have to agree with the post directly above me.

Typically to win the Derby a horse has to have Beyer figs of 100+. Among this year's 3 year olds, that is a very short list. He's had 3 starts running a 101, then a 104 and yesterday's race which is probably going to be a 105-108. I'm not seeing anyone around to match those figs.
After 3 starts he has won about a million & a quarter. Not bad for a colt with allowance conditions left. Going into the gate he was a little washy and Smith said he became a bit distracted at some point. Considering those two things, even more improvement may be on the horizon.
Re his being loose on the lead, if you look at the chart, Bolt actually was 1st at the break but didn't hold the lead for long. When Castellano made his move, it was described as urging, but it really looked as though he was working his horse hard, while Smith was sitting chilly the entire race.
I don't bet CD, so I don't have a Derby pick, but if I did, at this point I'm not seeing anyone else. :)

Hard to figure seeing how that race was run, I don't see the Derby being one pace like that, this horse could be anything from a star to a disappointment.

I do know one thing. Confucius says, when someone says they don't see anyone else...........look at everyone else. I'll have someone i like but only a fool sits on one horse in this cattle call.

I can't quite say what I was expecting but whatever it was I didn't see it.
He did run a sub 38 but as the derby favorite I don't know.

There are many people who are totally impressed by what they have seen so far but I am not one who would take 3-1 in the futures on this horse. You will get that price come derby day if you still want it but what if he draws a post like #20. I can see there is going to be an ample amount of early paced horses if all the top point earners go. Horses like Flameaway, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Runaway Ghost. He may just prove to be the next big thing but I will wait till the first Saturday in May to make any decision but maybe getting bit in the butt, I am one who will not use him on top. I will however congratulate those who do if they should win.

Totally agree with and enjoyed your post. :) Have a wonderful weekend.

It appears that you have to be a number maker of some kind to appreciate the effort yesterday. His last 2 races he was beating the equivalent of claimers versus running against a proven grade 1 horse yesterday. People fawned all over him when beating NOTHING and the same people weren't impressed yesterday, LOL

I can say that the SA Derby number was SO EASY to make that I didn't even need for the Oaks to run to verify anything. I had the race equivalent to 133-135 on the Timeform scale and they gave it a 132.

One interesting thing is the Beyer. Doug Salvatore posted on twitter this morning that in the Oaks all 9 horses were given lower beyers than their previous. He thought it should have been 5 points higher and the 107 number given to Justify is 5 points less than the "usual" Timefore to Beyer equivalent. Did they "adjust" the Oaks down so they wouldn't have to give Justify the 112?