Gotham/FOY/San Felipe
 

Big day in racing across the country with a number of solid cards. And Kentucky Derby prep season is now in full swing with 3 big time preps with almost assured entries in the starting gate to the winners with 50 points given for each.

GOTHAM:
Wow. What a race. 14 will likely go to the gate with an alternate on standby. Doesn't look to be a real standout in the entire field, and with the 1 turn mile, the pace looks to be lively.

Almost assuredly having to send is the :14: Recruiter off his 4 for 4 start to his career at Monmouth, Laurel, and Parx. Maybe he has surprised the connections a bit, but certainly has earned the right to be here. Stretches out to a mile for the first time and is obviously facing his toughest test to date.

Along with him on the outside, it looks to be contentious with other speed in the :9: Clubhouse, :10: Lugan Knight, :11: Slip Mahoney, and :13: Eyeing Clover. With so much speed on the outside, it seems to almost guarantee a hot pace. We also have the :5: Carmel Road, :7: Transect, and :8: Fort Warren that would also like to be in the mix early with the :5: maybe being the speed of the speed.

With all that said, everybody and their dog can read a form and see this almost assured pace duel. Thus tactics of who sits and who sends will be at a premium and 'trip' the likely deciding factor of who wins and loses when all is said and done.

An interesting horse to note is the :2: Howgreatisnate. The Delaware/Parx shipper is undefeated and has blitzed his competition late in the game with his closing punch. While distance may ultimately be a question for this one, the 1 turn mile could be right in his wheelhouse as he looks to be passing a number of rivals late.

A couple of former 'Bafferts' are in the field with the :5: and :8:. Great betting race in which the favorite may well be 9/2 or higher.

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH:
With the likely scratch of the :1: Gentlemen Jim, this race still looks to be contested between the 3 likely favorites, including the almost assured odds on choice of :4: Forte. 7/5 ML looks like a gift, and I can see this one getting bet down to possibly even 3/5.

:6: Blazing Sevens and :7: Mage look to be other serious contenders. Both by Good Magic, the :6: has some obvious catch up to do on the favorite as they have faced either other twice before and :4: Forte has simply dominated him thus far. With the time off and maturity, the :6: looks to be training as well as he ever has coming into this one, and will be interesting to see how much (if any) ground he has made up. :7: Mage is off a brilliant 7F Maiden romp in which he put up a big fig while being a nearly 12/1 shot in his debut. Attracts Javy for this one, and will be interesting to see how he progresses. Not much other speed in the field, and he could well be a gate to wire candidate if he is ready to improve off his maiden score.

Not seeing much else in here, but have to respect the two Mott entries in the :3: Shadow Dragon, and :8: Rocket Can. Afterall, they did make up the EX in the earlier Holy Bull prep, and Mott has shown his horses have been more than ready on big days this meet at Gulfstream.


SAN FELIPE:
A number of former 'Bafferts' are in this field in the :2: National Treasure, :7: Hejazi, and the :9: Fort Bragg. Interesting to see who will be the favorite in here as the :2: National Treasure failed in his 3YO debut in the Sham as the 3/5 favorite. The winner of that race, Reincarnate, then went on to finish a respectable 3rd in last weeks Rebel, but really wasn't ever a threat to win that race.

:3: Practical Move is off a big effort last out in which he turned the tables on :9: Fort Bragg and won convincingly in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Looks to be kicking the barn door down with some very solid works coming in including back to back :59.1 5F near bullets.

:7: Hejazi is a $3.55M purchase. Yes that is over 3 and a half million. While he has ran well to date, he has certainly ran well below expectations thus far and finally broke his Maiden last out. Beaten already by a couple of rivals in here, he is in off a bullet work and a big fig. Likely won't get a fair price, but an obvious contender.

:8: Geaux Rocket Ride is the interesting entry in here for me. Blitzed the field in his debut winning by nearly 6 over a next out winner. Papa Mandella isn't known for sharp firsters, and the Candy Ride on top and Uncle Mo on the bottom is some very intriguing breeding. Obviously nowhere close to lone speed in here, but will be interesting what kind of action he takes on the tote with some seriously expensive other horse flesh in here with much more experience.

The other of note is the :10: Skinner. He'd love for a hot pace to unfold, and it very well could. While Santa has never been kind to deep closers on the dirt, he nicely put it all together in his Maiden win last out. Got his brains beaten in by the :2: and :7: last October in the G1 American Pharoah, he should be much more prepared to tackle those rivals today.

A very solid trio of Kentucky Derby preps with a number of solid story lines. Should be a great day of wagering.

TRIO? No mention of the JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL tonight at Turfway? Last year's KEY Kentucky Derby prep? ;):D

Ha. You got me.

Need to keep tabs on that one for whomever passes 7 horses to finish 4th. :cool:

Fountain of Ute:
I'm going to use Rocket Can as value.

My Nonsense Late Morning Opinion
 

Timeline: (est)
Gotham - 4:56
San Felipe - 5:27
Fountain - 5:43
Battaglia - 9:25

The Gotham :5: Carmel Road @ 6/1 (ml 6/1)

San Felipe :3: Practical Move @ 9/2 (ml 4/1)

The Fountain :4: Forte - no bet

For those that like Mage - you should likely learn how to say the horses name first. The only other horse I would consider is Cyclone Mischief - I'd really need some kind of premium for Gafflione going a route on the Dirt (GP) for DALE. At that point... I'd likely pass the race but I guess I wouldn't vomit if I wrote in a "c" next to the horse's name. My solution to digesting all the chalk in the previous 4 races.

Battaglia :2: Aristocrazy @ 5/1 or more (ml 8/1) - I'd have no issues betting against the 3/1 ml favorite Gilmore. The pair of 3 furlong works just tell me the horse is slow. Scoobie Quando is more or less the same horse imo. (for betting purposes)

My eyes are on Practical Move *** this weekend. (I'm a numbers guy and this one is one of the elephants in the room with a "?" I have next to the name.)

*** So I'm a firm believer in epigenetics and for a long time have wondered what will happen with Chad Brown horses in the breeding shed. Practical Move's Sire & Dam in this case were both trained by Chad. This is unchartered territory type stuff. Obviously, I don't know exactly how well any trainer takes care of their horses...nevertheless, my ojos tell me Chad's horses always look better than every horse in the paddock parades.

that Gotham is one of the MOST confusing races I have reviewed in quite some time...LOST of possibilities from untried sophomores stretching out.

FoY hot take, back later like last week after other life stuff going on today

:7: has accomplished more than most of the field in its one race. Not a pristine trainer scenario, and has more to prove than one wire-to-wire maiden win. Class will come for him late, but can't dismiss.

:4: chalk is easy to like. Speed, pace, class, connections.

:6: horse fits and pace suits but not the perfect trainer scenario. Do not want the short price. Prefer other chalk. Prefer only defensively

:8: Just fits here with as much upside as any with two worthy wins. Might need to work out a trip. Good horse likely at a good price, absolutely underneath.

:3: always risky casting your lot with a closer, but here's a proper one predicted to be overlooked on the ML. Totally worth a shot, underneath.

:2: ratable but hasn't shown enough late to keep with these, respectable pass

:9: Romans shot can beat me. Anything's possible but don't have anything here to bet on. They surprisingly liked him last time and he disappointed

:5: & :10: toss

Worth studying the Holy Bull with several of these coming out of it. Not as intriguing as the Rebel and won't merit as big a swing from me accordingly.

Gotham: $5 Exacta Box :5::10::11::13::14:

Fountain Of Youth: $12 Exacta :4: / :2::3::5::6::7::8::9::10:

San Felipe: $16 Exacta :2: / :1::3::7::8::9::10:

The Gotham is completely wide open and that race will hopefully offer a lot of value; Projection is that #13 and #14 run right off the gate (75% chance on #13 and 80% for #14 according to my projections)

The FOY Forte is the one to beat so I put him on top and the next best horses underneath to get a nice big price home for 2nd

The San Felipe I also think that this race is another one of those "cannot pass races" on a strong horse and in this case the #2 National Treasure fits that scenario like a glove and underneath is the next best horses which again would like to see a nice longshot underneath

Good luck to all!

I really like the :10: Lugan Knight in the Gotham

His Jerome was fast and he ran strong all the way. Ample time to recover, works say he's still sharp, anything around 4-1 or over and it's a go.

Wow, the Gotham.

Bettables:

Signs point to :14:, undefeated ratable speed won a quality stakes last out at PRX in the slop. Hoping 12-1 holds.

:6: may be strongest late, respectable record, but might just be too much to navigate today. Plenty of margin at 30-1, or even 20-1.

Chalkiest I like is fourth on the ML, :10:. Speed and class are there, pace O.K., low key trainer. Hoping others take more money.

:3: maiden win last but ranks among the best of these, speed but doesn't need lead, use at double-digit odds

:7: surface uncertainty adds value, can pass horses, solid choice at 15-1

Also-rans

:13: may need the lead more than others and it will be very hard to come by today. Way prefer others than this ML favorite. Pass.

:11: among best of figs last but was was on the lead which will be dear today, looks to be placed well back, another with too much to do at too a short price

:5: caught my eye coming from off the pace first out, but that was more about coming out slow and gaining ground. Use defensively if at all.

:2: came from 5th in maiden win but looks to be too far back here

:4: confident connections or just too ambitious? I'm betting its overbet (prefer the :3: off stronger maiden win)

:9::1::12::15: maybe one of these longshots hits the board but any would be a surprise and you can't bet them all.

Gotham

:10:+:14: exacta
:10::14:/:3::6::7::10::14:/:3::6::7::10::14: trifecta

Whoa, :4: way more odds on than I thought in FoY

:7: win
:3:+:7:+:8: exacta
:4:/:3::7::8:/:3::7::8: trifecta
:4:/:3::7::8:/:3::7::8:/:3::7::8: superfecta

FOY Win bets on the :7: and :9:

Exacta Box: :2::7::8::9:

Exacta: :2::6::7::8::9: / :4:

Forte looked loaded right from the start. He has that look, very eager, confident.

I didn't make the :9: for anything but he snuck up to fifth choice in the win pool.