Tampa Bay Derby PPs
 

Tampa Bay Derby PPs

Pletcher > Outshine . . .

This race is tricky since it's hard to gauge how the sprint to route types like :11:Zenden will run. My guess is he goes quickly but is nothing more than cheap speed for a route. :5:Well Defined folded like a cheap tent when faced with a hotter pace in the BCJ and Macho Man. He was able to set the table in Sam Davis. There is a chance one or two of the sprinters take aim out of the gate otherwise there isn't much proven early speed to go with him and he's a big risk to steal the show again. I am looking forward to seeing :7:Win Win Win make a route. He's as fast as Instagrand sprinting but gets far less attention and I'd argue has the better pedigree. Slow breaking the last two and that could be harder to overcome against this class. He should be in a higher gear about the 3/4 and it's just a matter of how well he can sustain it. Irad is monster upgrade in pilot. :1:Admire could be the sneaky good one in here. Romans has a knack of flying under the radar then punching you in the mouth at 12-1 odds. Withers run at 9F was a solid effort in spite of missing the board, coming from mild layoff and jump in class from maiden score to graded stakes company. That race also featured a somewhat hotter pace than most other preps. He should improve with second start this year. :4:Dream Maker is getting some buzz however his speed figures are a touch below others, albeit with room to improve in second start this year. He retains top flight services of Geroux but can expect a bit more pace this time. Pletcher brings :6:Outshine who seems a cut below previous TAP runners in this event. That said, Pletcher has won four of the last six renewals and simply cannot be ignored.

I have absolutely no clue how exactly I'll play this race but first instinct is to consider win bets on :1::7: and using the :1::5::7: on top of gimmicks with the :2::4::6: underneath.

I have my fears the :5: will get another easy lead and run away with this race. Third off the lay-off. Think he is due to run another big race, however if another horse is sent ala the FOY and tries to set a suicidal pace I think the :5: will fold at some point. Regardless, I think the :7: is the horse to beat. Should ensure a good stalking trip with a potent closing kick, Irad didn’t come here to ride a loser. The Pletcher horse :6: has to be respected as well.

To finish out the exotics I like the :1: and :4:

Looking at :5::7:/:5::6::7:/:1::4::5::6::7:

Well Defined might make the lead again but he is going to have to go faster than he did last time bc Zenden is a very fast horse early. That being said, I don’t think Well Defined will get the job done. I think Dunph will get first crack at these two, just ahead of The Right Path and Outshine . After that it’s pretty much going to be whoever wants to keep running after the leaders fold. Win Win Win looks like a better one turn horse but that doesn’t mean he can’t win here. In a lot of ways he’s the horse to beat after his last race. The workouts are solid and Irad will ride. Speaking of one turn horses I feel that Zenden, Dunph, The Right Path, and Outshine are all better at one turn. If Dream Maker doesn’t get discouraged early (he’s going to be distanced) he could be a major player but you’ll probably have to find out at a short price. I think Tacitus will also be distanced and I don’t think he has the racing experience to relax and come from way off the pace to win a race like this yet. Would anything surprise you in this race though with the exception of Lord Dragon. I think Admire ran in spots in the Withers and should still be running at the end here. He isn’t impossible at a giant price. I also think Sir Winston could benefit from a hot pace and maybe take it down at a giant price. Tentatively I’ll make Win Win Win an A , Dream Maker a B, and Sir Winston and Admire a C.

Well Enough . . .
 

:1: Admire - weakened late
:2: Sir Winston - no cigar
:3: Lord Dragon - blowin’ smoke
:4: Dream Maker - tough
:5: Well Defined - horse to beat
:6: Outshine - outshone
:7: Win Win Win - tough; works; sprinter
:8: The Right Path - too soon
:9: Dunph - had enough
:10: Tacitus - weak works
:11: Zenden - game
~
:5: Well Defined to win.

Best of racing luck.

Lookin' forward to the Tampa!

I don't like :5: Well Defined. He's a need-the-lead horse who quits otherwise. There's no guarantee he can secure the lead with :11: Zenden and :9: Dunph.

:4: Dream Maker looks good to me. On TimeformUS, his best number is right there with all the other top contenders.

I'll take the :10:
Sure like the talent level shown by Tacitus.
The son of Close Hatches moves along very easily.......talented for sure.
He was a bit green last year,so the layoff made sense.
I think he'll move forward.
I think this one is Mott's best 3yo.

:1: Admire: Three solid works since last out. Looses 3 lbs and gets a pilot who won with him. See some potential here. Contender.

:2: Sir Winston: Beat the :1: in last. looses 5 lbs and sort of think that was a fluke. Bottom of tri and super.

:3: Lord Dragon: 6 tries to break Maiden, with a drop in class. Out.

:4: Dream Maker: Surprisingly low ML. Last race looks good on paper but was not impressed watching it. Tossing.

:5: Well Defined: Was said before, need the lead type. Was rated to the front in last, so there is more speed than was shown. With the :11: having a wide post, should see him get hooked. Playing against.

:6: Outshine: Really liked the last work. Needs to improve a little, and that is within his reach. Contender.

:7: Win Win Win: Distance the question here. Looked good in every race and lights out workouts. Key horse.

:8: The Right Path: Right path to the wong race. Cut below others here. Out.

:9: Dunph: Two good races and two bad ones. Which one do you get. The price will be there, will use in exacta.

:10: Tacitus: Not to keen on this one. Although Ortiz did get on this one instead of the :9:. Can't see it. Out.

:11: Zenden: Push the :5: all the way to the bottom of the turn then go by him.( At least thats what I hope for.) contender.


:7: boxed with the :1::6::9::11: and the :1:6::9::11: boxed for the exacta.

:6: Outshine is decent ml value. Maybe a key horse.

otherwise the morning line choices look fairly strong.

:1: Admire and :9: Dunph have long shot chances of running a competitive race.

what a disappointing looking race. can you even toss 3 or 4 of the 11 horses and feel good about a bet?

unlike most prep races i wouldn't hold it against anyone to look deep in here and go for the 500-1000 exacta.

Hope Win Win Win gets some points, but playing Sir Winston here

I think win win win is too tuff in here. if tacitus isn't all amped up from the layoff I think he might be able to catch them in the stretch. Close Hatches with Tapit might be a good horse.

:8: The Right Path has me really intrigued here. Not real good trips in his 1st 2 but he is here.


:2::3::4: with him make sense as well to beat the :7:


This is a wide open race.

Why take Pimentel off Win Win Win?

i think the long shots that might step up is the 1-10-11. want to play the 1 but not a robby fan. will still use him though

i guess it would be foolish to not use the 4. but after that it gets a lil dicey for me.

would hate to miss out and not have the 7 with a price horse with him..but i dont like him as much as some.

if pletcher or the 5 is there i won't be cashing