A serious question about Bolt ( No sarcasm )
 

Ok so Justify gets a 114 for crawling around the Santa Anita track uncontested in the SA Derby.

Bolt gets a 110 for crawling even slower than Justify around the track uncontested for 2nd.

Audible demolishes the Florida Derby field and gets a 107.

Magnum Moon demolishes the Arkansas Derby field and gets a 99

Is there really people on this forum that saw the SA Derby and thought wow that performance by Bolt sure was better than Audible in the Florida Derby and significantly better than Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby ?

It appears you're citing Brisnet figures. Both Beyer and Brisnet incorporate the past performances of the animals racing. Raw time is only part of the equation. In the case of Jusify, he beat the highest speed rated horse which helps inflate his figure. So be it. Andrew Beyer himself effectively stated this after Bolt won the FrontRunner 0.8 seconds faster than older females the same day but garnered a 100 versus 105 for Paradise Woods. Beyer simply couldn't believe all the horses that filled out the super in the FrontRunner could have performed so well so he lowered the figure. Funny stuff. Imagine if he gave him what should have been a 108 (which would actually better support Justify's figure in the Santa Anita Derby). The smaller the field, the larger the potential error. This is Statistics 101.

To quote another author, "True speed figures don’t necessarily measure ability. They are merely snapshots in time".

Trollbot

I tried to be nice about it.

I think I asked a legitimate question.

Core Beliefs earned a higher number in the SA Derby than Magnum Moon did winning the Arkansas Derby .... Is there people out there that believe if the SA Derby was run exactly the way it was to earn all those lofty speed numbers and Magnum Mood was also in the race and he ran exactly the same quality of race that he ran in Arkansas that he would have finished behind Core Beliefs ?

My concern is not for the experienced horse players on this site, if you want to throw your money away jumping on the Justify hype train than you know exactly what your getting into , rather my concern is for the casual once a year players who don’t know any better and just take the numbers as gospel not understanding what they are actually looking at is a grossly inflated speed figure that is nothing more than propaganda to push Justify . His first two races were against 5 horse fields of nobody’s so they had to really come up with a huge number for the SA Derby whether he earned it or not to justify ( no pun intended ) to make him the derby favorite. Even Frezien Fire could have lopped around the track uncontested in those fractions. Bolt did nothing to challenge Justify in that race. He just let him canter around the track.

If you want to build the sport of horse racing long term than you are going to need to convert some of these casual players to regular players and getting them to throw away their money on horses that don’t realistically have a chance by publishing Highly Questionable ( nicest way to put it I could think of ) speed figures is just plain wrong and not good for the long term viability of the sport.

When you start out using "crawling around Santa Anita" that is trolling obviously. If you don't like speed figures, don't use them. Many have pointed out that the SA surface has been historically slow this year. Plenty of horses have shipped out and ran great to show it isn't some anomaly where the current barns there are full of slugs that skewed the ratings.

The windows are a great place to express your opinion. Pace Advantage is probably the next best place. But you don't have to express the same opinion 42 times. We get it.

I'm of the belief that if Magnum Moon tried to keep up with Justify early he'd have been looking for a place to lay down in the stretch. The Arkansas Derby was a joke pace wise. And even with that he was running on about a 20 degree angle through the stretch. Good luck with him.

Fair enough about posting I don’t like Justify 42 times, but we really do have a difference of opinion on Magnum Moon getting fried if he tried to keep up with Justify. Baffert ducked Magnum Moon in Arkansas . He wanted no part of him. He opted for the much easier spot in the SA Derby.

well thats a bunch of crap. he kept Justify home at Santa Anita after McKinzie was out of the race. He didnt want to run Justify, McKinzie, and Solomini in the same race. Same reason he moved Solomini from the wood to the Arkansas Derby... So did he value McKinzie over Justify? Who knows. Would be interesting to know tho. If a horse is going to break the Apollo curse this year, and im far from sold of that, its going to be Justify not Magnum Moon.

We all know outrun numbers don't mean much. That the horses beaten that badly could not likely duplicate that figure winning a race. They were sucked along for the ride. It happens. But the key to Justify is his 2nd race back. In his route debut with mud kicked in his face he stalks a 45 and 109.6 pace and draws off and runs a big final figure. If this race had been a mediocre allowance win I would fairly agree with you analysis of the SA Derby. But it does exist and makes him double dangerous. He can stalk a fast pace and win and he can run off on a slower pace.

Well I think we can agree it will be a lot of firsts for Justify in the KY Derby

1. First time facing a field over 7 horses

2. First time racing at a track other than Santa Anita

3. First time he will make actual physical contact with another horse

4. First time he will take any significant amount of dirt in a race

5. First time he faces a top tier horse. ( Sorry Bolt does not qualify as top tier ecspecially when he treated the race more like a tune up than a race )

Serious question ....

Has Justify actually ever raced against a horse that has crossed the wire first in any race at all this year ??? I know Bolt has not. Maybe one of the other 13 horses he has raced against in his career has actually won at some point this year ??? Maybe one of them took down a $2500 claimer at Thistledown ??

Maybe we have another first for Justify ....

6. First time racing against a horse that has crossed the wire first in 2018

You actually have to feel sorry for Justify. Putting such a lightweight up against a battle tested , well oiled racing machine , wrecking machine and just all around beast of a horse like Mendelssohn. Baffert should be ashamed !!

That's horse crap! I'm done with this nowhere conversation. We're both betting what we want. I've been here for 10 years and I'll be here after the race.

What’s horse crap ? What FACT did I state that’s not true ? Is there a race missing from his past performances that I don’t know about ?

And as far as Bolt goes ....

1. He is either treading water or declining in his form cycle depending on how you want to look at it. He has not done anything since the Frontrunner . He is going up against horses who are actually peaking right now and coming up to their best race. He just never made that big jump from 2 yr old year to 3 yr old year like some of the other horses.

2. He showed in both the San Felipe and SA Derby that he wants no part of a 1 1/4 mile. He will be going up against other horses that will relish the added distance.

3. He has a jockey who has never ridden him, because his previous jockey left for greener pastures.

4. He has the most incompetent trainer in the derby.

5. To top it off he will be a underlay because of all the hype from his 2 yr old year. You won’t even get value.

Just don’t see a lot to get excited about with Bolt.

Bolt d'Oro earnings: $1,016,000.00

I sure would love to find a similar incompetant trainer! 6 races.


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