False Favorites
 

OK guys...

Lets do some real handicapping here...

I'm trying to find the best way to tackle false favorites...

IMO I can see a few ways that this can be done...

1) Tip Sheet...a written list of rules if he has a few than hes falls into the "False Favorite" category

2) Software....what ever you use or devised that gives you a rating
This 2 fold...

a) Using your "ratings" that you constructed to find "winners"
the favorite lands in slots 2 thru last...

b) a rating you devised that is targeting false favorite and their factors


there might be others , so chime in

THx

Mike

How about watching the early tote to see if a horse with obvious good and recent form is chilly? These horses often get bet back down to reality but there may have been a reason why the early money was absent.

I am not referring to lay-offs, firsters or other horses with question marks (new surface, new no-name barn, etc.). I often ignore the board with these types. It's a bit counter-intuitive, but if I like these questionable types, I am glad when they are cold on the board. An obvious horse that is cold early makes me worry.

I look for class droppers as false favourites. Especially if the horse is dropping significantly. Sometimes that is hidden and it looks like they are only dropping down one class. I consider whether the horse is just being tested at the surface/distance/level of competition, being eased in off a lay off, etc, and perhaps is not actually "in it to win it". I would bet a horse that moves up in class over a lot of the class droppers.

I think the class drop is still too hard to count out so those horses will take the share of the betting and so it's possible to find good value in the longer odds horses that won't be bet down too hard.

I like to compare the shortest odds horse to the longest odds horse and figure what is the difference and if I find it significant or trivial.

I think the best strategy is to find races with false favourites that have a high back class or back speed that make them tempting to other bettors. Then see what the other horses of value are. Finding false favourites isn't useful on it's own. I think many races have full fields of them

I'm going to put these in the non-computerized angles
Thx guys

But I would like to hear how the computer guys tackle these situations

Mike

Last race was above par for a higher class, but the trainer keeps the horse at the same level.

Wins at N2L, but the speed figure says the horse should be compete at ALW class, instead the trainer enters in N3L.

Not giving away methods, but agree that 'false favorites' is a good place to look for value.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/afhnc6.jpg

The most elementary, important insight, related to our Parimutuel System, is the fact that our system is 'Favorite-Centric'. By definition, the favorite has the largest market share of each pool. In order to overcome the takeout (often 15-25% taken out of pools before payouts are calculated), you absolutely must be right about the favorite. If that isn't already obvious, let that sink in. Every horse has a bucket of money in front of it. The BIG BUCKET is in front of the Favorite.

Jay, I have to sort of disagree with you here....

If that horse just won a N2L....and is good enough to win an ALW race

Why wouldn't you take that N3L purse if its easy pickens...

Remember, he can never get that N3L if he wins another different race

Mike


Man these computer guys are tight lipped here :sleeping:

True, I guess I am thinking more of a trainer, like Pletcher, or Brown, who I think seem to spot their horses well. When that happens, it gets me thinking "why are they not moving them up". Plus it is pretty easy to flag in Excel.

food for thought example
 

here's a little angle that I don't use often enough to mind sharing;

this can be 'programmed' and inputted in excel or access or whatever if that is your goal,

1. look at cheap maiden claimers, favored either FTS or this is one of their first couple/few starts
2. appraise the breeding value of pedigree (mechanical excel formula to 'flag', or you can do each one by hand, but the point is to find a binary 'yes' or 'no' to whether there is market value for that pedigree, not trying to nail down the nearest dollar)
3. determine whether the owner is in the breeding game (if it's a homebred, you've solved the mystery, Sherlock)

If the pedigree has some value, but the breeding-owners put him or her in very cheap, the money says that the horse has problems (conformation/"crooked", or injuries).

When these horses are heavily favored, you think about at least using alternate A's and B's or perhaps opposing altogether.

Tip Sheet Approach
 

I start my preliminary handicapping with a Tip Sheet generated from a database that classifies each race type as “Dominant”, “Orderly” or “Chaos” …. Each race entry is sorted from best to worst using a projected “fair” odds line…. For comparison purposes, a “custom” morning line is generated that is intended to represent/project final tote odds (“best guess” at a Contention Line) …. I utilize the ranks of six different models to identify corresponding Contenders; Contender Grades; Form Power Points; and a Reynolds number…. Finally, an algorithm populates the “Bet” column with top two projected tote favorites and any projected value plays…. In turn, the potential “False Favorites” / “Playable Races” become readily apparent.

BOL!

Dang, that sounds (and looks) downright awesome!

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I'm not a savant, but I can read all that in within a minute. I can also read the class, skill, and ability of the jocks and connections in milliseconds.



I use 1 model. My collective brain utilizing 30+ years of greatness.

A reynolds number....are the horses running through a pipe? Jokes aside what is the reynolds number for?

And what is dominant/orderly/chaotic? I assume chaotic is a race where the pace is really unpredictable?

Dam Beta.....that is some work up

A friend just gave me info on Dominant alternative/strategy using Brohamers early work. Glad you showed it in action with your charts.

Thx
Mike

LOL - That would be my doing.

The Reynolds Number, Modeling and Osborne Reynolds
In my research I came across the work of Osborne Reynolds, a 19th century English physicist and engineer whose area of interest was “turbulence” (fluid mechanics).

In 1883 Reynolds, by experimenting with pipes of varying sizes, was able to come up with a number, (now known as the “Reynolds number”) that tells engineers when a fluid system will reach turbulence.