If Justify becomes the 2nd unbeaten Triple Crown winner...
 

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

An unbeaten TC with a 97 Beyer. :faint:

Real Quiet is rolling in his grave...a dirty head bob vs a 97 Beyer...:pout:

As to the question, it will depend on how sound he truly is I suppose. The NY Times article on as the hoof turns was far more enlightening than the racing puff pieces.

He had to have sugery as a two year old to correct a problem with his conformation (this must have been what Coolmore was talking about when they said they passed on him because he failed their vet check). Then he was sidelined for 2 months with muscle injury. Then, according to Baffert, he always gets scratches which supposedly makes horses act lame (which may be BS). Then he gets a bruise.

He seems to have had a lot of issue related down time as a two year old that belies Baffert's assertion he was able to build up a solid foundation from works. This may be why he was on fumes yesterday.

I found an article on bruises, it is possible his bruise is a function of his weight and an imbalance in his stance. That was one type, and he has a lot of tonage and has some conformation issues. FWIW the bruise article also said visible bruises are weeks ol.

Real Quiet is also rolling in his grave because Baffert said he never had a horse run faster than Justify in the Preakness.

Justify 1:55.93
Real Quiet 1:54.60

Just for fun, Lookin at Lucky 1:55.47

:bang:

Oh, before the raw times are garbage crowd chimes in, Baffert was using raw times, so apples to apples.

Justify is owned by basically the absolute worst people if you want to see a TC winner run on.

Thankfully he isn't going to win the thing.

I wouldn't put any faith in that 97.
And none at all in the raw times.
CJ's figure is much more believable and that puts him at about 108.

This^^^^^^



Don't fall for the 97 beyer BS

All figure makers at one time or another....HAVE CHANGED figures at a LATER date...suspecting this time it will Beyer...

Beyer changes figures far more often than most would imagine.
I get the DRF Winners Books and track them for more than a couple of track. They don't usually change a lot, but sometimes you will see a 5,6,7 point change. Sometime whole days or weeks will change by a pint of two after he monitors his track to track performance. Good Quality Control. :ThmbUp:

Not a big deal because when you buy the PPs, you are getting the latest version. Being a 97 now means nothing if it is a 105 on Belmont Day. That is the fig people will be looking at in real time.

But isn't a Timeform 108 similar to a Beyer 97? Tenfold and Diamond King had 108 Timeform figs coming into the Preakness. A 108 Timeform figure isn't that good. In the 14th race at Pimlico Saturday, a $35,000 starter allowance, three horses had Timeform figures of 108 or higher. The bottom line is, for whatever reason, using any speed figures, the Preakness was a slow race for a GR1, even for three year olds.

From Haskin

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse...-go-again.aspx

""As for the final time of the Preakness, Justify ran almost three full seconds or 15 lengths faster than American Pharoah and Exaggerator did on sloppy tracks, and ran faster than I'll Have Another, Risen Star, War Emblem, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, and Carry Back did on fast tracks. And his 1:55 4/5 was the same time as Hall of Famer Alysheba ran on a fast track.""

Cj will be right this time...

by the way....more historical facts about beaten lengths in Preakness...vs...what happens in the Belmont...

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse...-go-again.aspx

There is a 20-25 point gap between the two figures, on average.

108 is actually somewhere in the 80's.

124, which was the races base figure, is somewhere around 99-104 Beyer.

Timeform has the race faster by a few points, nothing crazy. Now adjusting for the fast pace boosts up the horses individual performance figure, which Beyer does not have built into his figures.

There's no benefit to retiring a horse in good order in mid June given breeding season is 8 months away. Out of sight, out of mind for that length of time is even a detriment. The only reason he'd retire is if he's injured or does so poorly in training or racing that they risk demolishing his reputation. Good losses won't hurt him, just running up the track.

This post had me go back at look at CJ's fig. I looked at something wrong earlier. I thought CJ gave this race a 140, and had that in my head when arguing against that fig. So apologies, CJ, I find a 124 to not be unreasonable.

Some "experts" thoughts
 

“NBC’s Randy Moss: ‘When there's four horses right there at the wire, it means it was a slow race. It's gonna be tough for Justify to win the Belmont.’

“Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker: ‘It is plainly obvious -- to me, anyway -- that Justify tailed off his best form in the Preakness. His preliminary Beyer Figure of 97, the lowest of his career, is strong supporting evidence. But you didn’t have to know what Justify’s Beyer was to know that even though he won, his Preakness performance was short of what we have come to expect from him. For one, Justify had to dig deep to prevail despite getting a trip that was easier than the one he got in the Kentucky Derby, when he contested a scorching early pace and still bounded away from his field through the stretch.’

I think this is full of wishful thinking.

The author is rooting, not handicapping.