Late Derby Prospects
 

Loggins - no works since the Breeder's Futurity; not clear he's even shipped in to a racetrack to train (was/is at WinStar)

Cave Rock - no works since the BC; according to a local news report has no race picked out for his return

Blazing Sevens - 3 works since the BC starting in late Jan; probably status quo for a horse from that barn

Forte - 3 works since the BC starting in late Jan; already reported that FOY is his targeted return

National Treasure - 2 short & slow works since his odds-on defeat in the Jan 8 Sham in which the only horses he finished in front of eased or pulled up

For comparison, 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was injured in the fall of his 2yo year and didn't start breezing until early February as a 3yo. However, he was put on a very aggressive training pattern, working every 5 or 6 days in fast times.

The Derby trail gets more inconsistent and jumbled every year.

No doubt. All the 'golden rules' of picking a Kentucky Derby winner, including the dreaded curse of Apollo, have been pretty well shattered over the last decade.

We probably aren't far away from a maiden winning.

Maidens have won the Derby before, albeit many decades ago.

Speaking of maidens, I see that Pletcher has entered Crupi in the Risen Star. He can probably place and show to enough points to enter the starting gate.

Ha. Well, lets be fair. That last Maiden to win the Kentucky Derby was in 1933.

90 years ago.

The Kentucky Derby and all the Triple Crown hoopla really didn't have much merit or hoopla till the 70s. Even the great Secretariat merely ran against 12 other foes. Seattle Slew a mere 14. Mighty Affirmed beat all of 10 in 1978.