Belmont Day Speed Figures
 

HUGE difference between Beyer and CJ. Races were not even close timewise, but Beyer gave them 98 and 95, CJ 127, 116.

Beyer will be on Byk showMonday morning.

Class? Your thoughts?

What is Byk and how do I tune in?

Thanks! I have Sirius.

I don't have a chart for 12 furlongs....anyone know what an 80 is for the distance?

At the Races on Sirius FM, also available for streaming I believe on stevebyk.com

Yes, there is a "Listen Live" button. That's what I use when I listen live.

Hmmm....that sounded dumb! :D

According to Picking Winners:

2:36 = 80 , 1 fifth equals 1.2 points

At Belmont

And it's subscribable/downloadable into whatever podcast app you may use. They normally post within an hour or so of the show's completion each day.

The short version is Beyer has no explanation for the Brooklyn, and I believe his words were "assigned it an arbitrary number."

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I didn't mean it in a bad way. I've done the same thing myself at times and usually it is the right call.

I don't agree on this particular call, but there are reasons. A big one is that though are speed charts are probably similar at most distances, I think I give faster ratings at longer distances, and it isn't by accident.

My speed charts are much newer. They equate what horses do at specific distances for fairly recent times to each other. As far as I know Beyer is still using the same charts from when he wrote "Picking Winners" (with some adjustments) back in the 1970s.

Horses were a lot better going longer distances back then than they are now. So unless you adjust the charts, the same class horses are going to get lower figures at longer distances. Tracks have also changed quite a bit in that they are slower. That has probably changed the relationship between distances as well.

Maybe Beyer has made big changes, but from what I've seen I don't think so and I believe that is why we differ on these longer races more often than shorter ones.

In "My 50k Year", he had already lowered the equivalent ratings by 16 pts.

It looks to me like Beyer broke out the Brooklyn from the rest of the card and has most of the dirt races a bit slower than Timeform. The pace of the Brooklyn was much slower than the Belmont stakes, but you would think if that impacted the time, they would at least have come home quicker. They came slower too.

Something is amiss in the charts and projections. :)

This is the kind of thing where I look at the quality of the fields and make a more subjective judgment about the races rather than let figures dictate the answer to me.