correctly determing the exacta place horse
 

I use the twinespires tote board for down loading wps and exacta pools into excel.

I have hundreds if not thousand such files going back years.
The down loads for each race range incrementally from 4 min to 1 or 0 minutes to post.

For the past several months I have been looking at this data to find occasions when the exacta $1 return will outperform the $1 win return.
As of now, I have has some limited success in determining which horses, placing 2nd will accomplish this.

I have been posting many such plays live in the selections forum.
You should note here that I’m picking the place horse and bet size, not the winner. That’s left up to the viewer;)

You say 'outperform the winner' but talk about the place horse, and saying the winner is unknown.





Make sense to you?

The intent is to offer the win bettor a possibility of improving his return by matching his win selection with my place selections.
here is an example of a play I just posted on the selection forum

Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
"Finger Lakes
Race
1

Post
1:10

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,160"

Code:

---

pgno        bet size
1        493
2        0
3        0
4        0
5        507
6        0
7        0
8        0
9        0
10        0
11        0
12        0
13        0
14        0
15        0
16        0
        1000.00

---

the 2/1 exacta wins. $1 exacta track payout was $14.90
your $1 win bet returned $6.10
our $1 exacta payout was $7.35
the flx book % is 1.21

our exacta $1 play exceeded the win by 1.20.

of course the play does not always win, so the overall exacta returns must exceed the win returns by a substantial amount.. the proof is in the data.

I'll mention something further, it aligns with the "late money" thread.

at 4 min to post the $1 exacta return was $6.89
at 3 min to post $7.30
and at 0 min to post it was $6.62

here are the results for another posted play

pax r4 today

That explains everything. Keep up the good work

here are the results for 193 races

* calculations based on a successful win bet