BC Friday thoughts
 

Juvy Sprint - who cares? Gonna take a small stab with #7 Sweet Shirley Mae from off the pace in the hopes that they blaze out up front and come back to her. Using mainly underneath in exotics with a small win bet.


Marathon - quite a few on the pace types and i will go with two late runners, Atigun and the classy Grassy (two time Gr2 winner). Fame And Glory could waste this field or spin his wheels over the SA dirt...i will bet on the latter; it's just a bad bet to play these Euros on firm American dirt. Grassy will be a nice price and is also making his dirt debut, but he and Gomez have done some nice work together, and he's the perfect jock for his running style. He's a serious late runner when he's ready.

Juvy Fillies Turf: - two girls for me here, Spring Venture and Kitten's Point. The former has been stunning in her short career so far and has to be used. KP is proven without lasix while no other N American based runner is, strong late kick too. Sky Lantern is formidable and may try to wire this bunch, but i'm betting someone gets this pace going and she becomes a late casualty.

Juvenile Fillies - all signs point to a fast and contested pace that is sure to take it's toll. Gimme Spring In The Air from way back to run these girls over. Dreaming Of Julia and Broken Spell (was she gaining on SITA late at Kee??) are next best imo.

Filly & Mare Turf - sigh, i am swanging for it here with In Lingerie (pause for your laughter to subside) to go a long way on the front end and get a big piece of this. I have not seen Pletcher try a move like this before (first time turf in a race of this caliber/magnitude) and i will trust that he sees something in this filly that made him try this.
Gotta use The Fugue and Marketing Mix. Trying to beat Ridasiyna on firm turf which she may not prefer.

Ladies Classic - you can value hunt all day on this race but i don't see more than a $6.00 win mutuel. Best value imo is Include Me Out but not in the win hole...just don't think she's good enough, but racing on her home track will help. Using her big under Royal Delta and small under Awesome Feather; tossing My Miss Aurelia and Questing out of the top two slots. Will make a token "just in case" win bet on Include Me Out.

Good luck y'all

Juvenile Sprint

Win selection: Merit Man
Longshot: Hazardous
Boxed Exacta: Merit Man x (Hazardous, Ceiling Kitty)

Marathon

Win selection: Not Abroad
Longshots: Commander, Calidoscopio

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Win selections: Spring Venture, Kitten's Point.
Longshots: Summer Of Fun, Oscar Fun, Tara From The Cape
Exacta: (Spring Venture, Kitten's Point, Waterway Run, Flotilla) x (Spring Venture, Kitten's Point, Waterway Run, Flotilla, Tara From The Cape, Nancy O, Sustained)

Juvenile Fillies

Win selection: Spring In The Air
Longshot: Broken Spell

F&M Turf

Win selection: Nahrain
Longshot: Shamrock Lady
Exacta: (Nahrain. The Fugue, Shamrock Lady) x (Nahrain. The Fugue, Shamrock Lady, Up, Marketing Mix)

Ladies' Classic

Win selection: My Miss Aurelia
Longshot: Include Me Out
Exacta: (My Miss Aurelia, Awesome Feather) x (My Miss Aurelia, Awesome Feather, Grace Hall, Include Me Out)

Classic Double

My Miss Aurelia x Mucho Macho Man

Juvenile Sprint - Sweet Shirley Mae
Marathon - Commander
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Kitten's Point
Juvenile Fillies - Broken Spell
F&M Turf - The Fugue
Distaff - Awesome Feather

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint
PICK: Ceiling Kitty
Alt.: Sweet Shirley Mae

Breeders' Cup Marathon
PICK: Sense of Purpose
Alt.: Juniper Pass

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
PICK: Waterway Run
Alt.: Sky Lantern

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
PICK: Spring in the Air
Alt.: Beholden

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
PICK: I'm a Dreamer
Alt.: In Lingerie

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
PICK: Awesome Feather
Alt.: Love and Pride

Juv Sprint:

Merit Man, with the scratch, is the pick. Also like Hazardous and think he might grab a piece. His owners did supplement him.

Marathon:

Tough race, I like Eldaafer, Commander and Atigun in that order.

Juv Fillies Turf:

I really like Spring Venture a lot here. Maiden race and stakes race have been really impressive. Natalma prep has been key the last couple of years. Flashy Ways (supplemented) and Sky Lantern underneath.

Juv Fillies:

I think Executiveprivilege and Kauai Katie are going to duke it out for the win here. I also think Spring in the Air has a shot as they may go too fast early.

F&M Turf:

Ridasiyna seems the class of the field followed closely by The Fugue. But to be honest, there are a lot of other horses which can also win here if they get favorable circumstances (Nahrain, Marketing Mix, Lady of Shamrock or Zagora)

Ladies Classic:

Awesome Feather over Royal Delta and My Miss Aurelia. Watching the preps leads me to believe this is the most likely outcome.


Will be watching odds carefully though for all these races and will bet what I see as value. Good luck to all.

Wow - Grassy opens at 10-1 from a 30-1 ML.
A decided underlay...let's hope he drifts upward to about 18 or 20-1 by post.

Don't think i can pull the trigger at under 15-1

Boxing the :6: Calidiscopio with :7: Not Abroad in The marathon

EX:
1-4 w 1-4-7-10-13
WIN:
4-13

well, dammit man! :bang:

Race 6:

ex: 1-5 w 1-3-5-8-10
win: 1-8

now using :8: Tara From The Cape pretty prominently at a nice 14-1

Juv Fillies Turf is the big betting event of the day for me (exotics)

Kittens Point 20/1 here which is the win bet of the day for me

Nancy O and Summer Fun should outrun their odds

Boxing the :5: , :6: , & :12: in the 6th race
Betting the :12: The Gold Cheongsam to win

Any win money on Calidoscopio?
Nice call

The one American filly (Kittens Point) who had been running without Lasix ends up last (or close). The one she beat last time (Summer Fun) drops Lasix and comes in third. Go figure.

Juvy Fillies:

I think Dreaming Of Julia sits a very nice stalking trip behind the speed and can get a big jump on the late runners if she's right.
Hoping she pounces at about the 1/2m pole and gets a nice lead into the lane...6-1 odds more than acceptable.

EX: 5 w 1-2-3-7
WIN: 5-7