JerryBoyle |
10-03-2020 10:41 AM |
This is completely anecdotal, but the moment covid hit and tracks began closing, I got slaughtered for 2 or 3 weeks straight. It seemed as if the average price of winners was sky rocketing, which is usually bad for my model.
My 2 second thought is that with only a few tracks open and no other betting outlets, there was significantly more "dumb" money in the pools decreasing the efficiency of the prices. My models use the public's price as an input with a certain weight decided by looking at 1000s of past races. It can't adjust to the efficiency of a few tracks decreasing within such a short amount of time, so it's essentially providing too high of a weight on the public's estimate.
I've done nothing to investigate this, but I plan to in the future. It certainly makes me concerned about how to handle that 3 or 4 month time period going forward....
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