Yea, sometimes you get the feeling there may be opinions that racing is actually doing well.

tbh dude i wouldn't be able to look at myself in a mirror if i banked a million dollars doing it that way. I'm ok with outworking people and using my experience to beat the game but i wouldn't go looking for that type of edge. anyone who seeks this type of edge out i'd be hard pressed to have much respect for.

It has ruined the game not just for me but for a lot of players who really loved it. i am talking about what was mentioned in Beyer's article. i am not against conditional wagering as long as we're all looking at the same odds and betting locks for everyone at the same time.

If it's possible to place bets at GP after the race starts, that's a federal crime.

Is anyone in the horseracing media, or any media, bringing this to the attention of government officials if they suspect it to be happening?

Or, is this just speculation and bs that people are spreading?
____

If bets are not happening after the bell, then who cares?

It's parimutuels after all and that's how they work! It's how they have always worked.

Makes a good case for exchange betting.

If what I said sounded the least bit like that I need to say it differently.

What I said is that you may be able to get the same level of access as SuperTote or some ADWs get. In other words, a little sooner because the middleman has been eliminated.

But you would still be at the mercy of the tote system's built in updating methods. As far as I am aware, there is nothing that comes close to "tick-level" data.

Dave

I dont understand how its just widespread at this point.

Agree completely. Exchange betting seems like the best of both worlds between fixed odds through a book and pari mutuel betting. You'll know your odds ahead of time and you won't be limited in the amount of $ you can get down by the book.

I wonder if it's not more widely adopted because it's more complex to use?

Here's what you wrote:

"1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles. "

While the REPORTING of such may not be in real time like a tick feed, the data provided (ACTUAL MONEY WAGERED ON EACH TICKET) sounds a lot like a tick feed, where you see each and every trade and how many shares were traded...so you can spot, what they call in trading, a BLOCK TRADE (a BIG trade from what one would assume was an institutional investor or some other heavy hitter, which supposedly carries more weight than a 100 share, or $2 ticket).

Did you not mean to convey that if someone bet $10,000 to win on a horse, you would be able to see that information? Cause that's what it reads like to me. And that's why I likened it to a tick feed in trading, because that's where you spot large individual trades.

Absolutely not. Sorry if I misled you.

I meant horse totals as opposed to individual bets.

I am not aware of anything other than totals being available.

When I think of "tick" data, I think of Forex (my only experience) and in that arena the data is not trade-by-trade, but rather in a time segment determined by the user and the software.

Again, sorry if I mislead you.

Dave

The biggest problem with exchange wagering is that exotics are too complicated for most players to wager, and Americans love their exotics.

IMHO, that will completely stop ExW from getting a firm foothold here. Too bad, actually.


Dave

The sport won't survive if the majority of money is coming in so late that nobody really knows what the odds will be. How can you seriously participate in a gambling game having no idea what your price will be? All the fish bet, then all the sharks come in and swallow them up. The fish aren't going to continue to stick around for that feeding frenzy indefinitely.

i think the racing establishment is banking on the fact that 1/2 the horserace gamblers have a compulsive gambling problem. don't know if it's true but years ago i ran into a counselor who had clients that that had gambling "issues", and she told me at least 1/2 the horse gamblers in her practice were compulsive gamblers. not me of course (lol).

It's compulsive losing, not gambling, that is the problem. If the same guy goes to the track and wins money everyday, whats the problem? The counselor is trying to treat the wrong issue.

Now you sound like Doc Sartin back in the day.

Horse racing might very well be up against sports betting very soon. Both involve handicapping. One lets you compare that handicapping result to a fixed price. The other is making you compare your handicapping to a possible range of final odds.

How does horse racing survive against that?

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

CJ,
I don't think it's anywhere near that dire.
Less than half of betting these days is on WPS - it's less every year.
People that like betting horses will shift their action even more away from straight betting.
Let the sharks devour themselves.
I'll just swim in the pools they're not involved in - like Pick 3's - a great bet to play anyway that's underutilized by most players imo.
I'm not going to abandon what i love doing because of crw.

with all due respect pa. what curtailed my betting tremendously is the fact that there are so many more contenders scratched from what was a good betting race, and turns into a uncompetitve affair, because there is not enough "race'. also over the recent years the payoffs have habitually been much lower than in the years, before, making dime breakage a much heavier tax burden to bear.

I did A TON of blind betting back in the 90s. Yes, there would be some degree of variance from the anticipated M/L back then but it seems worse now.

And even if everything is on the up and up, the perception is bad. And if potential new players have a bad perception of the process, they likely will not become new players.

Yes, this is true. This is why the industry does not address issues like odd's changing, and other issues such as timing and take out. Why should they, when in their view, the consumer will come back because he is "addicted". How would a sports bettor feel if after placing a $22.00 bet on the Eagles in the Superbowl, the next day his bookie gave him $30.00 instead of $40.00 and said all the late money went on the Eagles, so the odds changed. A blackjack player puts a $100.00 bet on one hand but after he draws 20 the casino tells him he can only win $50.00. But the nature of wagering in horse racing, is always going to have swings in the odds. I do not know how many times I have bet a horse at 6-1 that will come from off the pace, and holding my breath when the horse moves into contention, not because he might win, but because I know that when they put his number on the screen, he might be 2-1. The problem is not the change, but the fact that it takes so long for the change to be seen. If the odds board showed the final odds before the first quarter of the race was run, every time, there would be much less questioning of what is happening. But, after all, the tracks will not address the issue because their customers are "addicted".

Not sure who it was but someone I follow on Twitter showed the exactas loading into the gate at GP and the winning combination was $76 and when it came back was like $40. How can you handicap for that in any kind of value odds scenario?

It was Ed DeRosa, the tweet was part of my post. Showed the win and exacta pools.

No one in the industry from top to bottom gives a damn about things like this. I got friendly with the manager of a local OTB a few years ago...and I casually mentioned to him in a conversation that my pick was loaded in the gate at odds of 6-1, but was 7-2 by the time the horse was getting its picture taken in the winners circle. The manager's comment to me was: "You fvcking horseplayers are never satisfied. You complain even when you win."

This thread just discussed an example from yesterday of an exacta price being cut in half in the last minute of betting, so not sure how "don't bet WPS" really is useful advice.

People have been hammering exactas late forever too.

Beyer talks about one such person in Picking Winners - Doc (I knew him by sight from his clipboard he used)- back in the 70's charting them and playing accordingly. Made moey that way, at least according to Beyer.

Nothing new here.

What about all the Exactas that go UP when someone hammers a particular combination.
No one talks about this either.

I like P3's and P4's. I mentioned P3's in my post.
I don't have to think about all this nonsense.
Get a grip or stop playing everyone.

Besides tracks don't give a damn. They've got casino dole.

:popcorn:Racing has no clue who the customer is.
The casinos do.

Hence, the reality of today's racing.

Racing is a necessary evil for them......for now.
Personally< I see no reason whatsoever that racing should have any part of the casinos or the sports betting when it comes.

Racing is a just a leech to the more successful forms of gambling. An albatross that needs to surgically removed.
Why should racing get a penny of slot money for purses - it is a stupid idea.

It was part of a great con. The racing industry was able to convince the politicians that the slots money would go towards "improving the sport"...when the real motive all along was to make the horseplayer as "unnecessary" as possible in the game. Trainer Jeff Mullins spilled the beans many years ago, when he publicly stated: "When will we be allowed to run casinos, so we don't have to depend on the moron horseplayers for our daily bread?"

The mechanics of it don't work anymore except for what's likely just a handful of people who have bought visibility to a narrower odds 'range' as you called it, by that I mean the odds they can see are much closer to the final odds than what the tote shows when they're loading. I would suggest that you start jotting down minimum acceptable odds on your horses, it doesn't have to be top picks, just minimum acceptable odds on any horse that you're seeing as a potential good bet. When you get down to 0 MTP write down the odds. At this point it's a bet or it isn't, this cuts through all of the theoretical nonsense. When the race is over write down the final odds. What you'll find these days if you're any good at setting probabilities in the first place is 40% of what you deemed as acceptable odds turned out to be unacceptable. The better your estimates are the more likely you will see this, if you pull numbers out of a hat then no you won't see it. I would say it's all but guaranteed after several thousand bets where 40% of these winners paid less than you yourself are deeming necessary to minimally break-even that you will not be showing a profit. Now if we're betting fixed odds then the 40% becomes 0% and you will suddenly have a great chance of showing a profit assuming your minimum odds are accurate enough. When I was playing professionally this was 20 years ago the 40% number had to have been far lower because there was no way I would be beating the takeout flat betting for ten years straight every day while getting locked into that many underlays. Some did drop below what I felt was fair, let's be real, but nothing like 40%.

i have no idea how it works in your country.

in mine once upon a time, not very long ago.......
the group i was part of and based in tasmania at that time, was given office space in the headquarters of the relevant pari mutuel operator there(TasTote), for the princely sum of $1 per annum rent.
It meant the people doing our betting, could put their bets on marginally later than others, and it was a huge advantage to them apparently(i had nothing to do with the betting side of it).

the world's biggest gambler, zjelko and his mob, have(had?) office space in the headquarters of the nsw pari mutuel operator which was the biggest in australia.
it would be naive to think that did not give them some advantage.

When the horses went in the gate in GP's 8th race Wednesday, Uncle B was 7/1. Four or five steps after the gate opened, his odds dropped to 3/1. He won and paid $8.60. The odds might have dropped while the horses were still in the gate but we didn't see the drop until after the gate opened.

Waiting to bet until the horses enter the gate doesn't always give you an idea of what the horse will pay.

Uncle B was a headline event around here...hardly something you see every race.

Could you clarify this?
For example win on 1 would show something like-> 3,6,2,200,15,200,2,2,4,3,2,2,2,2,200,300,2,2,2,2,2 ,2

I'm sorry, Dave, but I don't know what I am looking at.

Looks pretty simple, the actual amounts bet on the #1, as they are fed into the tote

Ah.

Again, I guess I confused people with what I said.

I did not mean "ticket" but rather "combination."


Dave

Dudes and dudettes...I have to tell you...I am quickly becoming a convert of the late odds drop shrill chickens.

WTF with this :3: at Mahoning in the 4th race just now? (I know, I know, a $16,000 win pool is tiny)

Horse was 3-1 when I bet him right before they go in the gate....drops to 2-1 when the race STARTS....he's literally going backwards for much of the race and I think this horse is SO done....then starts coming on all of a sudden around the turn and wins for fun...

And ends up at 8/5...

Anyway, if anything, this proves people can't bet after the bell...unless they can bet midway into the race...because if you watched this :3: for the first half of the race, you not only wouldn't have bet on him, you'd be cancelling all your bets as fast as you could.

But DAMN...when I saw 8/5 I almost crapped myself

PA,

If this was caused by past-posting...

What people forget is that if you see the odds change just as a horse takes the lead, that would mean the tote system was so quick to react that somebody could punch a bet in and SUDDENLY it appears everywhere.

We KNOW that the tote system is far slower than that.

In fact, we all WISH it was that fast. LOL


Dave

Can't you get that with just about every ADW? even if they only show probables, with pool total you can figure what was bet.

Or are you saying that the source updates more often, rather than every 30 seconds or minute?

That was the point I was trying to make. There isn't anything extra to get.

The only difference is...

Let's assume that currently you are getting your data from an ADW tote board site.

Let's say that the your view of that ADW page refreshes at exactly 0:00 (minutes & seconds) to post.

Your next refresh is at 0:15 (i.e. 15 seconds after listed post).

If you had been hitting "refresh" in your browser every 5 seconds, you might have had a new update at 0:10.

The guy with the more direct (and very expensive) connection might have had that same update at 0:02.

In other words, the gain is not as great as people would think. Frankly, it would do absolutely nothing for me.

Dave

Should be made a federal crime for some market participants to have access to pool information prior to others?

Being able to measure, assess and respond to pool inefficiencies is how you win in this game. It's not about just knowing when your right, it's about knowing when others are wrong, too what extent or degree, and then how quickly you can assess and react to that with a wager. That can only be ensured by having same time access to pool totals. Everyone should get the pool totals pushed out at the same time. I didn't say top secret ones or mysterious ones, just regular old pool totals. Certain groups or individuals shouldn't see pool totals for a minute before others get access, its real simple. What measures and audits exist to ensure that the signal distribution is timely to all participants? What are the penalties for providing a more timely signal to one individual than another?