1 Turn Races - Outside Post
 

Why in a 1 turn race is the outside post considered a better post position? The inside still has a shorter trip... no?

Whaaaaat?

Who said the outside is considered better?
For ex: the #1 hole at Aqu has the highest win % in sprints.

In general post position is less of a factor in 1 turn races.

The rail is usually a better post than the outside, even in 1 turn races, but it can require that a horse show early speed, because other horses want to show speed and move inside.

If a trainer feels like he has the best horse in the race, and he draws post 10, he may say he wanted post 10 because it allows his horse a clear start and time to settle.

in sprints especially the shorter sprints a horse has to gunit from the gate or risk being stuck on the rail behind horses.If he does have to gun for the lead he risks being used to early....

Could it be that the #1 hole has a higher win per cent because it usually has fewer horses to race? For example, a horse from the 12 post is always racing against 11 other horses. A horse from the 1 post is racing against anywhere from 2 to 11 other horses. Therefore, it might be reasonable to expect the 12 post to have a lower win per cent than the 1 post. That's why I "normalize" post stats to a 10 horse field.

Sometimes in one turn races the rail horse can get intimidated by all the horses coming over to the rail to get position. Not much of an issue except in races out of a chute.

Close, just use some sort of actual vs expected Win % because what if that 1 hole is always a 99-1 shot.

I think the idea is that the #1 post has no advantage over the other posts except when it's close to the first turn (5f sprints) with the right horse. Personally, I like the outer posts coming out of chutes since they can stalk the pacesetter without being hassled by other horses outside of them.

I prefer the outside posts in one turn races. But a lot depends on the track. For many years when they raced on dirt in So. Cal. post 1 was horrible in sprints and they were one turn races. There would be meets were only two or three horses would win from post 1.

Nothing to back this up except for what I see.

I personally think the outside posts before the turn allows a jockey more room to decide where he wants to position the horse. I've seen times where 2-3 horses were all at the front and sometimes different horses drop out of the duel. Maybe the horse wasn't great to begin with though. So my thought it, the rail is great when a clear lead can be had so you get the benefit of the rail and no stressful horses on the outside.

Just something I've observed, I've seen the situation never happens the same everytime.

The outside post can only get bumped from one side. No one can break in on you and if you break out, there's no one there. Small edge.

I would love to see some type of number that could take a horses odds into consideration, what running styles do at different post positions...or combine the factors. For instance, the probability of a sustainer who is one of the top three betting choices, drawn to the inside 3 positions going 6F on the dirt and then compare that to the probability of sustainers who are one of the top three betting choices in the same type of race.

Give me a field of 5,6,7,8 whatever...I will take the rail horse and y'all can have the outside post

Every track is different. Like Pandy said, I've seen times where the rail in one turn races is a death sentence. It pays to know the track.

Aqueduct main is opening tomorrow, I think. Not sure how it's been playing in recent years, but "back in the day," races down the chute at 7f and (especially) 1m were not kind to your theory.

Does anyone have stats on this, comparing the "outside" post to the rail post at the Big A main, 7f and 1m?