Beyer Longshot System
 

Could this be tweaked to make it a viable method? I like the fact that you almost always get a price horse to play. Here is the method.

Eliminate the three horses picked in the consensus of the DRF as a win bet. Also eliminate any horse coming off of a layoff of one year or more or has only one race after a layoff of one year or more.

Also eliminate any horse whose Beyer figure or figures are 20+ points lower than it's pre-layoff figures.(layoff of 45 days or more)

Also eliminate in claiming races only any horse who is dropping in class following a win.

Of the other horses, look at the best Beyer in each horses last three races.

Your key horses are the two horses with the best Beyers in their last three races. (if there is a tie, you can have three key horses)

Play to win at odds of 5-1 or higher.

Box with consensus choices in exactas or quinellas.

Look at the last 1000 races, see the win % and if it makes a profit.

Try it on the next 1000 races and see the win % and the profit.

We can then tell the significance of your "method" via statistics.

Beware Certain Trainers
 

Go careful here. Some trainers are experts at pulling this one.
Might be a good general rule, but know thy trainer.

This is the key to your system and this rule needs alot of expansion. It is also the central debate between those believing in 1 PL and others believing in multiple pacelines. If your horse looked like this,what would be more accurate:

Last race 10k: 68 beyer
2 back 40k: 92 beyer
3 back 40k: 98 beyer

Got to look at class. This horse is a 68 not a 95. Single PL would be more accurate in this case.

Distance is another problem. Does a 90 sprinter beat a 90 router? My experience says no. You need a sprinter with at least a 95 to beat a 90 router in general. And there are exceptions to that rule. My experience with Bris data. Not sure about Beyers.

Horses with high Beyers (which is what you're using) don't usually go off at over 5-1 unless there is some negative factor, or the Beyer was earned at the wrong distance.
Why limit yourself to over 5-1 when shorter priced horses make up for their lower prices with higher win %. An exception could be with a system which keys on subtle factors that makes horses longshots, but this one that uses recent Beyers does not seem to be one.

Good luck with this, whatever your final method becomes.

Bob

question? if beyer numbers really work, even as a tool for capping why didn't he keep them a secret and become a billioniare!

Figs Only Part of It
 

Stamina figs are only part of the handicapping process. But they sure help.

so are you saying beyer just likes us so much that he sold his figures to the drf ? your response does not answer the question, if they work so well, why sell them? even as a tool, won't he have the dream that every handicapper wants that would give him the edge ?

Not Stand Alones
 

He makes money yearly from the DRF.
They are not stand alone. Beyer never claimed they were. You'll go broke just betting Beyers without any other considerations. Good luck handicapping with out some type of stamina figure somewhere.

beyer is not much of a handicapper. he is a newspaper man who wants the widest possible audience. besides, he earns a pretty penny by selling his figures without risking a cent.
in the right hands, in conjunction with other factors, his figures are useful tools.

so if I can give any one a figure or number ,and I am 30% right in picking winners would you use my number as a tool, and then I could sell them ?

example: I would Give Street Sense a 20 and hard spun a 18, and Curlin a 16, and if they run that way this week, will you buy my numbers? ok, I am willing to give it a try, talk with you after the race.

You won't get much business based on one race. Do it with ratings that stand up year to year from track to track and you'll have a good start.

Wow, sounds like you know the man personally. Please elaborate on your relationship a bit so that we can get a better frame of reference for these rather stinging comments of yours.

Beyer himself kids about his handicapping and all columnists want wide public exposure. What's so stinging?

C'mon PA, I'm not the one who's criticizng Beyer and his figures on this thread - I'm defending them - check my posts. It's being charged that his figures are suspect because he publishes them. I'm just pointing out that Beyer is primarily a writer and that's why he doesn't keep them to himself and it doesn't mean they're no good.

Bob

I understand where you are coming from Bob, but I think you've overstated it just a bit. Beyer IS a player. He has pushed his share of money through the windows over his career and I believe is a very successful player, but probably only a decent handicapper -- now. I think his refusal to really embrace pace cost him some credibility along the way. But when he started out Beyer used speed figures in relation to trip handicapping and track bias very effectively.

But what REALLY sets Beyer apart from the crowd is his courage -- namely the courage of his convictions. This is a man who is not afraid to hammer it when he sees a real overlay and reap the profits. I would surmise from his books and other articles about him (anyone recall the profile in the NY Times magazine section a while back?) that he is a real home run hitter, not a grinder. So when he wins he really wins with the exotics.

You can cover a multitude of sins as a handicapper if you have the faith (and some ability at least) to swing for the fences -- no matter how many races you have lost recently -- on longshots on the way to making a killing on them.

That's what I admire about Beyer -- his courage and his stamina as a bettor.

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.