BC Classic Question
 

Who do you think will win the Breeders Cup Classic?

I'm interested to see who buys into the Arrogate phenomenon. His Travers performance certainly made this race more interesting. Was he a one-hit wonder or the real thing? What do you think?

I think Chrome is the most likely winner but I'm very intrigued by the post draw and potential pace scenario. It's no secret that he does not want to sit behind horses so the potential for a wide trip is certainly there.

Effinex, Hopp and Gun Runner look live to me.

Arrogate has to regress off his last... How much is the big question. A slight backwards move, considering he's getting weight, could still get the job done. At the prospective odds though, I'll most likely pass.

I'd rather light my money on fire than use Frosted. No way he ships and beats these at 10f. He only has 1 race that would win this and we are a long way from a one turn mile at Belmont. He might end up 3rd choice and he should be no better than 8th based on the pre entries.

as always, the track will be set up for the california horses.

and we will get another bad, california breeders cup. Where nearly 80% of the horses in each race have no shot because of the bogus surface. It's a shame these trainers and owners from the midwest and east coast, and europe continue to allow this, but then again, if they say anything, they wont get invited to the cali circle jerk parties, where they can get a photo with some hollyweirdos, and maybe, a pic with Bo Derek.

lol this industry

Is this a race to bet or a clear pass?

Obviously CC is the most frequent winner and most likely he will leave the gate as a huge underlay. The question is, under what kind of racing conditions he might become vulnerable and how possible something like this is to happen.

Given his stellar performance in the Travers, Arrogate will also be over-bet as the second choice making him a very poor bet despite his substantial probability to win the race.

In any case, both CC and AG are either bet against or not bet at all.

Which one of the others can improve to a career top to upset these two?

Watching Arrogates last workout, he looks like the real deal to me....

He will be overbet no matter what.

Do I get 4/1 on Arrogate? If not, race looks like a Insta-pass to me.

That said, not sure what to make of #4 Found atm.

I'd guess around 5/2 on Arrogate, but I'm not certain about that.

Found is good.

Can she beat the 'A' race of either Chrome or Arrogate?

If no, we are opening another can of worms (who else can contend if Chrome and Arrogate don't run well?)
These are all solid horses. Who gets a better trip? What kind of pace setup will we see?

I believe that his odds must be around 3-1. Not a bargain by any means. Looking elsewhere for a real upset..

I doubt if she will run in the Classic and if she does I do not believe she has a chance to beat them.

Effinex is going to be an overlay IMO and he has quite a few races that would be very competitive in here. If Prat can get him more of a ground saving trip than he's been subjected to the last year, he's a major player.

Nyquist setting moderate-fast pace with Arrogate pressing?

Yes, he is an interesting horse. I am not sure though that the composition of the race is a perfect fit for his running style.

He is more of a presser than a closer and the race appears to have a lot of early speed which is not a good think for a horse who will follow in the third or fourth spot.

I cannot see Nyquist been a factor here. He is clearly a precocious horse whose best days belong in his past.

Agreed :ThmbUp:

He's a long shot. I do like that he may be on the lead (I'm not convinced that Baffert or Sherman think they need the lead).
Long shots who at least figure to have the lead or initiative at some point, always get a recognition of a puncher's chance from me, over long shots who don't.

(Really just building a case now) Nyuist's Parx race was very flat, but it was on the quirky Parx surface and he kind of moved up 3 wide the entire race. Haskell and the Preakness were sloppy collapse(Exaggerator) races. Race before that was the Derby. Now he goes home and gets a fast track and the lead.
8-1 or so on the board? He's not the worst long shot in the field.