Bounce and Win?
 

On brisnet's Handicapper's Edge, they noted that according the to the sheets, BB ran the fastest Kentucky Derby, a -1. Dutrow said that with only two weeks, that is a concern, but thinks he could run a 5 and still win the Preakness.

Anyone else have thought's on how much he could regress (if any) and still win the Preakness?

Considering that he won by nearly 5 lengths, gave up 4 lengths breaking from the 20 post, gave up 5 lengths going 5 wide around the first turn and gave up another 4 lengths going wide on the far turn, seems he could afford to regress a dozen lengths and still win. The only serious contender I see so far is Harlem Rocker who ran a brilliant mile in the Withers.

The other way
 

I have it the other way. I think that Big Brown will improve off of his Derby effort. That race was a wide gallop and he didn't seem hard used at all. I expect a ground saving trip into a faster pace. Given that his feet hold up, the Belmont will be tougher but only a fresh monster can keep him from the Triple Crown.

I don't think anyone will run with him early now. He could have an uncontested lead after running a quarter mile in the Preakness.

UNless a trainer enters two horses and uses one of them as a "rabbit", this race could be over a few strides out of the gate at Pimlico.

Hopefully a bridge jumper gets involved and I can put a few bucks to show on the other horses for some interest in the race.

Dutrow was almost arrogantly confident about the KD when many had doubts. Now Dutrow is expressing some concerns but the public is the overconfident one.

One of my pet handicapping angles is to go against a 3yo who has never had consecutive races within approxametely 3 weeks.Especially chalk. It seems they bounce more than the normal bouncers because they have never raced 2 races this close to eachother and they are a bit immature. I really did not like Barbaro in the Preakness with this angle and still feel he was not all that relaxed because of it and it may have contributed to his injury.

From what I hear only Recapture the Glory is returning to race from the KD field. So I have no idea who BB competition is or looks like on paper in the Preakness. But I do like Dutrow's honesty and intelligence here in recognizing the bounce and other factors about the Preakness realistically as opposed to blind enthusiasm. His focus on the unique challenge of the Preakness rather than overconfidence may help get BB over the 2nd hurdle.

I'm curious as to where that would put the runner up Eight Belles historically(based on sheet #'s).

The rabbit theory wont work vs this horse, trainer and jockey. Elliott fell for the bait vs eddington and Hennig. BB is just that good and no rabbit will de-rail his quest for a preakness win. As far as a bounce I dont see it, he is too fresh 4 races, 4 wins.

No E or EP horse stayed or was close to BB at the end of the Derby (using brisnet's labels). P & S types might again make up the underside of the vertical bets in the Preakness if speed can't keep with BB.

Does that mean the fastest ever?

seen the Light
 

Light,

I agree with your analysis. It's very astute about Dutrow vs. public. It would be interesting that so quickly the "green" nature of Big Brown would turn out. And very well could happen. I guess it all depends on price. He looked so good and generally the Derby winner is discounted going ahead. It really takes a broken down race (Giacomo) or a great horse who has an avg. to bad day (Afleet Alex, Point Given) for you to go against the Derby winner.

I said two weeks ago Rocker will be a shot, and now it looks like he's the one to get Big B if it can be done. All the others are synthetics off last, I don't know what to make of it. Finally, it looks like Recapture is not going to make it due to a fever. I would have liked him to be up there to place or show.

LSK