prcecious metals mining shares short
 

for the past 15 years i have been lending out the mining shares that i own for people to short. in that period i have been collecting premiums the whole time.in the past month, i have not been able to lend out any shares. some of the minors that i have held shares in are down over 50% in price. i wonder if this means that the sector is ready to move now! by the way, i know i would have been much better off paying the original tax consequence by putting stop losses on those shares as it turns out, but i was very stubborn and highly opinionated, and still am!

looking back the year
 

with the dollar moving up 12% its hard to believe that gold only went down $5 the ounce while the Nasdaq was down 25%.

S&P futures gapped up on the open by almost 30 points tonight....but have now given it all back and then some....what on earth were they thinking? lol

___________


when there's a very bad year like last year I can usually get some comfort by looking at the historical returns of the s&p for the last 10 years

no guarantees of course - but still - it helps - me anyway

my personal belief about market moves is that the market overly reacts to the financial situation - when things are bad - watching the market makes you thinks that things are worse than they really are

when things are good - watching the market makes you think that the financial situation is better than it really is




2022_____-19.44%

2021_____+26.89%

2020_____+16.26%

2019_____+28.88%

2018_____-6.24%

2017_____+19.42%

2016_____+9.54%

2015_____-0.73%

2014_____+11.39%

2013_____+29.60%



.

Piedmont Lithium
 

this company has a contract with Tesla to sell them $65 billion a year worth of Lithium. the contract is on hold because the company has a mine in North Carolina that has been denied permits. so for the time being Tesla is getting all their lithium from China.

Congressman Chris Jacobs has been buying Piedmont Lithium stock with both hands since the $1.7 trillion fight inflation bill got passed. in the bill there is significant mention to ban Lithium imports from China. the total market cap for PLL is under $1 billion right now. if they get their permits, the share price will at least double.

coming from Boston, i know a little bit about Delaware North and the owner Jeremy Jacobs. they own the Boston Bruins. this family throws around quarters as if they were manhole covers. they don't make mistakes, and i suspect the nephew Chris is the same way.

India lowers the Duty tax on gold from 12.5% to 7 .5%
 

this should increase the demand for gold worldwide. India's population is the largest retail gold purchaser.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-2...smuggling.html

seems to me...after today's early big down move and now big climb back up into positive territory...that the market will never go down ever again...at least for the foreseeable future...

Good news is positive and bad news is now positive...so....good luck...LMAO

"Paul Pelosi, the multimillionaire husband of former House Speaker and current Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif), sold 30,000 shares of Google stock a month prior to the Dept. of Justice's announcement of an antitrust lawsuit against the tech giant, according to a financial disclosure filed with the House of Representatives."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...fda016c7c06167

this is up 12% since my pump

GDSI is down 20% since my pump. i am still holding looking for a possible 10 bagger or more by the end of April.

all you guys that can't wait to vote for Democrats should get your head wrapped around Chris Jacobs, especially when he is buying biotech stocks where he is on that special committee. the man is deadly!

Quite the start to the year here, I'm thinking it's some January magic running it's course. I'm not going chasing after this rally.

I could be wrong but I believe Chris Jacobs is not a member of the current 118th Congress. Is there more than one congressman named Chris Jacobs. The one I have in mind hails from upstate New York.

thats the guy. he is from Buffalo

https://www.congress.gov/member/chris-jacobs/J000020

he did not seek another term.

i was getting the info from a website that tracks the congress. maybe he still has to report for a length of time after he left.

HE DID NOT GET VOTED OUT, he just didn't run

___________


I got my tax document from my brokerage a few days ago and I freaked out.
I had made a couple of large (for me) trades early in 2022 that I had forgotten about.
I saw the capital gains and thought I was going to owe a gigantic amount of tax because of it.
It took me quite a while, it shouldn't have but it did, before I finally realized it was a long term capital gain.
Because it's long term I will owe nothing in taxes which is the case for married filing jointly with combined income less than $83,350.
Because my wife and I are retired this applies to us.
Short term capital gains are taxed just like income.
What a relief.


Long term capital gains are the only kind of money making that I know about whereby the IRS doesn't take a crushing % of the profit


never before have I ever made anywhere near this much and owed no tax



https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409



.

Michael Burry, the man who profited handsomely when the housing bubble collapsed, is predicting 2023 to be an extremely rough year for stocks.

Apple, Google & Amazon all release earnings after the bell...might be an interesting after-hours...lol

I don't recall all three releasing on the same day anytime recently...

Hit that magic 4200 level on S&P futures and promptly turned around into a nosedive...

SPX gap above 4203.04

Reality clearly not setting in on this market. That anyone would think "the coast is clear" to invest in equities given what the fed has done in the last 10 months is insane. We have no way of knowing what these raises will do to the economy, anyone claiming to know the effect is smoking crack.


I'm sitting it out for the most part right now, nibbling at individual names if they get cheap but overall I still think cash is best.


Bonds and Bond funds still look like the best bet to me in 2023, once the rate hiking cycle stops these bond funds should move up before equities, but given how drunk on growth stocks this market is, who knows.

This market has to be done for now. The high is in.

It's like December 2021 all over again...next stop 3300

There isn't going to be any soft landing.

The Fed never gets it right

People are REALLY going to start hurting even more...forget inflation...people have no money left. It's all credit card debt at this point.

The S&P is so richly valued at the moment considering things are NOT going to get better going forward in terms of earnings...this thing has to die...

Agreed all around

S+P closed under 4100 today... in 2 months from today, i would lay 6/5 that the closing number would be higher...

after that is another chapter and another story:lol:

Just curious, why do you think that?

Technical? Fundamental? Political? Other?

i am looking for the biggest crash ever in the history of all markets. the very best way to get the most amount of money away from the most amount of people is to get them trapped into the market. usually, this time of year money pours into the markets to fund 401k and IRA, when the money is done getting into the market, the raid will start.

i even expect gold to get hit as well. but i could easily be wrong on that one.

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. And their experience invariably matched mine, that is, they made no real money out of it.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."

-Jesse Livermore

Cut your losses short and let your profits soar by sitting tight...

Hardest thing in the world...because market psychology will fuck you 100x to Sunday.

Thank you. Good answer, although I am less optimistic than you for the next two months.

nobody is!

While I certainly expect the market to continue in a slow downward trend I can't get on board with the "biggest market collapse in history"


That is, from a strictly numbers based perspective, almost impossible at this point because for over a year now money has been coming out of the market in preparation for a pending recession. You simply cannot slowly drain money from the market for 12 months, set it in cash and then expect some kind of epic dramatic collapse.



Basically any significant move down right now will be met with buying and therefore the market can churn lower but it cannot collapse.



I do think the market will continue lower for the next 12-24 months with the ultimate bottom coming in somewhere between 3,200 and 3,500 on the S&P as this represents a 15% dip in earnings (from here) at 16 times P/E


All that being said the volatility of the market presents opportunity even now. The covered call and put market is alive and well and even simple funds that deal in this area are performing very well.

St. Valentines Day Massacre?...
 

The financial road that you drive daily has massive underground erosion that can't be seen, until the road suddenly collapes and the sinkhole abyss appears below....The collapse of the stock market is imminent, nothing can stop it.

Could anyone please tell me WHY the market will crash and burn in the near future? Seems like that's the position of the 3-4 regular posters in this thread. Thanks.

So.......what happens first?
 

DJA hits 36K........or......32K?

THESE ARE EXTRAORDINARY TIMES, SO DON'T EXPECT ORDINARY EVENTS.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED FROM NOW ON.

Because certain markers that have been reliable in calling past tops are in play right now...the same ones that were in play in December 2021.

Because the consumer can't keep using their credit cards forever...because the Fed usually does NOT get it right (ie. soft landing).

And because despite this recent run up, it couldn't get near the summer peak...

Lots of things are saying down medium to long term...

We were in a downward trend from Dec 2021 until October 2022...if it closes above the August 2022 high, then my mind will be changed...until then...still in a down trend.

first of all you made this post right after Replay Randyl. don't underestimate that guy, he's pretty sharp at times.

from what i see of these markets currently, the leading stocks are now on a basic oversold basis, i am talking Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. these oversold conditions by the way that i calculate things have not occurred since 2008. therefore i am probably looking for a meltup starting now up and into the middle of April and probably to new highs. the acceleration to the upside that i expect is the main reason why i see a giant decline right after it.


my pick for a stock right here and right now would be Intel (INTC), the analysts hate this stock, and the chart looks awful. but insiders have been buying stock in this from $44 down to the current $27. the way i look at it is that the insiders have to know more than anyone else.

So you are predicting the next upturn and the next downturn? That's a pretty bold move when everyone else is split on the current conditions. The January move up in the market is over, it's already out of gas. The market caught a little bit of New Year's fever, that's it.


These tech companies are running short on monster growth, which has always been their calling card. And the path to growth is more difficult in a high rate environment. Every time I see Zuckerberg peddling the Metaverse or Microsoft peddling ChatGPT it's obvious. These guys have to convince investors they are sitting on the next big thing because that's all that's ever driven their share price (Amazon actually lost money last year). I highly doubt either of these circus ideas equate to the next Google search engine or Iphone in terms of growth power. Not happening.




Intel??
Jesus Christ. No
I would set myself on fire with rocket fuel and a nuclear match before buying Intel. I like a beaten down value stock as much as anyone, but I can't consider this one until management is shaken up. The current regime is TOTAL disaster. They can't get anything right.


I'd offer up Disney as a similar but better option for a beaten down buy. Bob Iger can sell off ESPN or Hulu (maybe both). Get Disney+ to profitability, shrink the debt. Thus allowing the movies and parks to be the cash cows they always were. Plus, he is Bob Iger, they were winning the moment the got him back.