Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2637974)

Somebody (besides the CAWs) needs to think out loud about the technology and the integrity of the pools.

Should be simple. Don't allow late betting. No cancel delay. No hacking. No blind pools.

Allowing someone rebates, and the ability to calculate and successful place a a large 'batch' of wagers in the last few seconds is plenty reward for investing in and contributing to our pools.

I don't even think it's possible to see 'uncovered combos', but if it is, this whole 'jackpot' thing is nothing more than a sham...

I know this thread was mainly started in regard to the perception of lack of integrity that happens with late odds changes. :ThmbUp:in the over 30 year history of the massachusetts lottery numbers game, there has never been a day where someone didn't hit the 4 digit number. there is no probability known to man that can make that fact possible. the numbers game is a pari-mutuel bet.




:popcorn: I don't know, but some of that is worth considering.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2637959)

If CAWs are given data on Trifectas, Pick-3s, or other deeper multi data (such as uncovered jackpot combinations) then that should be considered 'criminal'/'cheating' by both the CAW in that instance and the Race Track or ADW that offers the data and the false advertising to the public.


/As far as the Trifecta pool data - It is the actual pool info not an estimate. It's not offered at all tracks. I don't know whether it is 'possible' to obtain that info at the tracks that don't currently offer Trifecta Pool probables, but it seems that if it were, it would be free money to CAWs or insiders (via simple correction of inefficiencies).

I don't have enough understanding to say that the Trifecta Pool technology is something that means that Pick-3 pools are in fact able to be calculated in the same or similar way. On the surface, that seems 'logical', but I can't make any type of informed statement. Certainly questionable, and as a pool that is 'blind' to all public ADW offerings, it is a valid concern that CAWs and insiders could have access to this.

If CAWs simply use expensive computers and elegant creative algorithms to make better 'estimates' and power ratings etc... - I don't have a problem with that. That's what I call a high-level pro operation.

If the actual pool Probables and info like 'uncovered combos' are available, but not shared to the public, that is criminal.

Originally Posted by metro (Post 2637981)

If the CAWs are accessing the pools to chase uncovered jackpot combinations I say let them have it. Those combinations go uncovered for a reason.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage (Post 2637927)

So....

What exactly is the problem again?

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage (Post 2638008)

But let's be real for a moment.

Hasn't the majority of handle always been bet by a minority of the players? At least in modern times?

The smart money is ALWAYS betting more than dumb money...always.

That's why it's the smart money.

But there are a lot more dumb players than smart players. So you would think the dumb players bet as much or more than the smart players, on the whole.

That never happens though...because, luckily, for the most part, the dumb players instinctively know they're dumb...so they don't bet a lot...

If they don't know they're dumb, then they just go broke quickly if they bet a lot more than they should.

Originally Posted by Jeff P (Post 2638019)

No.

If you go back to 2003-2004 the percentage of handle attributable to CAW was lower... Imo somewhere between 10% and 15%.

Imo, that wasn't because the largest computer teams weren't betting significant amounts. Hint: They were.

Imo, percentage of handle attributable to CAW of between 10% and 15% was because handle and participation by the everyday horseplayer was much larger back then than it is today.

According to stats at the Jockey Club website, North American handle peaked in 2003.

Starting in about 2005 or so, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups began implementing changes... higher takeout, ever increasing track signal fees, source market fee in state after state, and denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, etc.

Those changes had an effect. Everyday horseplayers began betting less.

Over the years, as takeout went higher, as signal fees were raised with each new signal contract, as source market fee was implemented in state after state, as indepently owned ADWs disappeared:

Everyday horseplayers were driven from the game.

Handle from the most sophisticated players has been shrinking over the years too.

But not nearly as fast as handle from the everyday horseplayer who is still the backbone of this game.


-jp

.

Originally Posted by Jeff P (Post 2638019)

No.

If you go back to 2003-2004 the percentage of handle attributable to CAW was lower... Imo somewhere between 10% and 15%.

Imo, that wasn't because the largest computer teams weren't betting significant amounts. Hint: They were.

Imo, percentage of handle attributable to CAW of between 10% and 15% was because handle and participation by the everyday horseplayer was much larger back then than it is today.

According to stats at the Jockey Club website, North American handle peaked in 2003.

Starting in about 2005 or so, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups began implementing changes... higher takeout, ever increasing track signal fees, source market fee in state after state, and denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, etc.

Those changes had an effect. Everyday horseplayers began betting less.

Over the years, as takeout went higher, as signal fees were raised with each new signal contract, as source market fee was implemented in state after state, as indepently owned ADWs disappeared:

Everyday horseplayers were driven from the game.

Handle from the most sophisticated players has been shrinking over the years too.

But not nearly as fast as handle from the everyday horseplayer who is still the backbone of this game.


-jp

.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage (Post 2638050)

So then, if the "everyday" player has always been at the mercy of these whales, whether they be in the form of CAW or anything else...how have things actually changed all that much for these everyday players?

Whereas before, whales could count on their superior "handicapping" ability to generate a few percentages in profit....now they have to rely on rebates to make up the bulk of their profit as the masses have become "smarter."

But who says they are profiting more NOW than they did back then?

Maybe they are, and maybe they aren't.

If they aren't, how does this negatively impact the everyday player more than before?