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-   -   Santa Anita 5/25 analysis (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158277)

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 02:10 PM

Santa Anita 5/25 analysis
 
My complete analysis of every race with a letter grade and most importantly a fair odds line for every horse can be found at www.chartinghorsevalue.com

Any questions, let me know. Join my Facebook page or follow me on twitter if you find any value in what I'm providing.

Thanks,
Jeff

CheckMark 05-25-2020 02:15 PM

Wow looks like you took some good thought and time into this spreadsheet/program pretty neat!

Good luck today!

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 02:19 PM

Honestly, this card if fun but there is very little value to find at first glance.

The best value on the whole card is only $10 in Race 4 #4 and that horse is the favorite and likely gets bet down. I'd play that horse if I got 2-1.

Hopefully the tote helps me find some good bets as we progress through the day.

For the stakes races:
Race 5 - I like Oleksandra at 5-2
Race 9 - I like Without Parole at 7-2
Race 11 - I like Beautiful Lover at 5-1 but don't think I'll get that. Another option is Mucho Unusual at 5-1 and this horse odds might drift higher than morning line.

Again, all the detail can be found on the website.

Good luck to everyone.
Jeff

Nitro 05-25-2020 03:28 PM

SA- Tote Analysis

Race #1 – 6-7 W/ 2-1-4 @ 3 mins to post

Nitro 05-25-2020 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2607832)
SA- Tote Analysis

Race #1 – 6-7 W/ 2-1-4 @ 3 mins to post

Results:

Race #1 = 7-1-8-2-3 = WIN - EX


Code:


POS        #        Horse                Win        Place        Show
1st:        7        Big Runnuer        $8.00        $5.00        $3.60
2nd:        1        City Rage                $8.40        $5.40
3rd:        8        Torosay                                $3.80
4th:        2        Galloping Mischief                       
5th:        3        Lincoln City               
       
•        $2.00 EXACTA 7-1        $55.00
.


Nitro 05-25-2020 03:43 PM

SA- Tote Analysis

Race #2 – 6-2 W/ 5-3 @ 20 mins to post – Early money but not much expected value

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 03:53 PM

SA R3
 
SA R2 - honestly this is a pass race but for fun I'll take :3: currently 6-1.

Correction: This is for R2

Nitro 05-25-2020 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2607843)
SA- Tote Analysis

Race #2 – 6-2 W/ 5-3 @ 20 mins to post – Early money but not much expected value

Results:

Race #2 = 2-6-5-4 = WIN - EX & TRI BX


Code:


POS        #        Horse                Win        Place        Show
1st:        2        Hendavid        $5.60        $2.80        $2.20
2nd:        6        Dyn O Mite                $2.80        $2.20
3rd:        5        Claw                                $2.60
4th:        4        Foxborough       
               
•        $2.00 EXACTA 2-6        $13.40
•        $2.00 TRIFECTA 2-6-5            $36.60
.


Nitro 05-25-2020 04:29 PM

SA- Tote Analysis

Race #3 – 4-2 W/ 5-6 @ 3 mins to post

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2607863)
Results:

Race #2 = 2-6-5-4 = WIN - EX & TRI BX


Code:


POS        #        Horse                Win        Place        Show
1st:        2        Hendavid        $5.60        $2.80        $2.20
2nd:        6        Dyn O Mite                $2.80        $2.20
3rd:        5        Claw                                $2.60
4th:        4        Foxborough       
               
•        $2.00 EXACTA 2-6        $13.40
•        $2.00 TRIFECTA 2-6-5            $36.60
.


I've seen you make some nice picks but your exacta 2-6 with 5-4 costs $12 and returns $13.4. If you box all four it costs you $24.

The Trifecta box also costs $48 and returns $36.60
The Superfecta box also cost $48 and returns $0

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 04:31 PM

SA3
 
SA3

I'll take the :6:

:2::4: could certainly win this crappy race

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 04:33 PM

SA3
 
The :1: is interesting at 14-1

Nitro 05-25-2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChartingHorseValue (Post 2607877)
I've seen you make some nice picks but your exacta 2-6 with 5-4 costs $12 and returns $13.4. If you box all four it costs you $24.

The Trifecta box also costs $48 and returns $36.60
The Superfecta box also cost $48 and returns $0

That's not the betting techniques used with 2 Keys in short fields.
Besides limited value was also indicated

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 04:42 PM

No problem

ChartingHorseValue 05-25-2020 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChartingHorseValue (Post 2607881)
SA3

I'll take the :6:

:2::4: could certainly win this crappy race

7/2 winner in 6 horse race....not bad.


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