Is this the decade with the highest concentration of bettors dying off?
 

All the guys who have been betting horses the last 6 decades are approaching 80 years average age. They are all dying off and it shows at the OTB’s . I wonder what the ratio is comparing new fans to the ones dying off? Maybe for every 10 lost 1 is gained or am I way off? Maybe some tracks are losing money but sources say there are definitely less horse bettors but those betting are wagering more. Makes sense.

I think a lot of that is attributable to whale betting, and was discussed at the recent Jockey Club Round Table.

http://jockeyclub.com/default.asp?se...ar=2018&area=4

So from 2005-2011, overall handle was in a tailspin, dropping an average of -4.65% per year. From 2012 to present, that's leveled off, and handle has either remained steady or slightly increased (average increase of 0.22% per year).

Source: http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8

I think there's a direct correlation between those numbers leveling off, and the rise of robobetting that started around the same time. The whales have effectively stopped the bleeding, but in doing so have covered up the fact that average bettors are still dying off, or walking away, and aren't being replaced. Meanwhile the industry is content to take their quarter-point increase in handle every year, and pretend that everything is fine.

But as McKinsey points out, the whales can only bet so much before they hit a point of diminishing returns, and they're very nearly there. Once they hit that wall - and coupling that with competition from sports betting - I think we see handle numbers start to drop again, which will set off a domino effect that will cause the contraction that racing has desperately needed. I expect to see a lot of tracks closing their doors over the next decade.

If I was guessing i would say 50 lost to 1 gained would be closer.

If i we’re guessing I’d say racing was safe until people who are 40 (now) or so and younger are 70. that’s about 30 years. Unless racing powers change up it will die off around 2040 or so.

Sad....

Allan

This is a very sad development and this decline is painfully evident when one tries to discuss racing amongst friends or people in general. Compared to other sports, most people know little and care less about it. The only exception being the Kentucky Derby, but even there knowledge is lacking. Compare this to the "golden age" of Secretariat, Affirmed vs. Alydar and Ruffian.
The only people I can even discuss racing with are online and now most think handicapping has something to do with the disabled.

Depends upon whether you mean that literally, or figuratively.


If literally, then of course each subsequent decade will have more (horse) bettors dying off, with this one eventually the new leader, for a short time.


But if figuratively, then it was probably the 1990's or the 2000's, as there are so relatively few left anymore that the effect of their own mortality is but a small fraction of that which track management largely drove away with pure stupidity in the 1990's and the 2000's.


You should also define when those bettors are counted as 'gone':


Was it when somebody wrote their obituary? Or was it the day after the latest pinheaded move by track management effected their final wager on a horse?

Racing has lost it's place in the imagination of the American population. I bet if one were to do a "Man in the Street" survey of awareness of the Super Bowl compared to the Breeder's Cup the ratio would be 100 to 1 - unless that street was located across the street from Saratoga or Santa Anita. Compare this to the days when the racing exploits of Seabisbuit helped a nation cope with the Great Depression.

I wonder if the same state of affairs exists in Europe or Asia ? Maybe the U.K. and Australia would be exceptions.

I think it has a lot to do with the American public's IQ dipping below the 80 level.


Much easier to buy a lottery ticket or watch a few kneeling goons throw a ball around.

I think that people viewing horse betting from the outside would make the same claim about the horseplayer's IQ. With so many options for gambling at lower costs why would the expectation be growth?

:ThmbUp:

Whenever I admit to people that I am a horseplayer...I always receive a "Wow, and I thought you were a smart guy" look in return.

:ThmbUp:
With horse racing being the one of the few forms of legal gambling where skill outweighs dumb luck, this is one occasion where I agree with you completely.

I dunno. I'm a pretty skillful guy but after hitting 4 of 6 at BEL today, coulda used some dumb luck with Ortiz in the finale.:bang::bang::bang:

Both poker and sports betting require skill for long term success and the price to play is much cheaper than racing.

You should ask all the "smart guys" how much profit they are showing from gambling ?

Aaron, what are you implying when you posed your question to Thaskalos?...:cool: