Louisiana Derby PPs
 

No Dallas Stewart from this race to blow up my Kentucky Derby exacta. :6:WoW got a lackluster 97 Equibase figure in the Risen Star suggesting he can be beat here but by who? :8:Country House flattened out as they came home in so-so time. :10:Spinoff snared a 101 Equibase figure at Tampa and Pletcher always commands respect in this feature but I have a hard time trusting fast horses at Tampa shipping. His post less ideal for style as well. :4:Sueno will get some buzz for finishing ahead of Toddy in Southwest however I'm not impressed. I think Toddy ran his Derby last weekend. :3:Limonite has some impressive dosage figures for distance and wouldn't fault anyone taking a shot at long odds. :1:Roiland is always gaining ground late with slowish paces. I do wonder how he'd fare with a faster setup. Any of the others have a shot at snaring the bottom of tri or super.

Leaning toward WoW and Spinoff here but will throw something at Limonite as he offers some intrigue at a price.

tough betting race

be nice to see at least one, if not both WoW and/or Country House run a good race and bounce out healthy.

be nice to see another potential talent step forward (not too many in here; looks like Spinoff is the only? other potential talent). And maybe if your're dead-set on betting this race, or love some one in the New Orleans, you go back and watch Spinoff's races, and try to determine whether his slight threat to wire the field on paper is anything more than a paper tiger. Let me take this opportunity to give yet another bump to TimeformUS pace projector - you're going to want to consult with that if this is your strategy.

It's a horse race, but more of a watch-and-see what plays out, and who comes out healthy, than it is a "oh man, the public is dead wrong about xyz race" ...

If nothing else, I know Corey Lanerie will give :4: Sueno a ground-saving trip. I think he hits the Top 2.

Last time, I liked :8: Country House a lot, but his slow-breaking habit is a turn off.

I think WoW is the real deal.

:6:/:1::3::4::8::10: ex and tri.

The :10: scares me the most.

This "mother" may have Danzig written all over it.

Heading towards the Kentucky Derby, the principles have suspect bloodlines for 10 furlongs.

Improbable, by City Zip, may have exposed distance limitations when looking loaded at the top of the stretch of the Rebel, only to get reeled in by Long Range Toddy in the final furlong.

Game Winner, by Candy Ride, has a strong bottom side for stamina, and although he closes steadily since stretching to two turns, there is no denying he has to be worked over to get in gear, lacking a strong turn of foot that is often necessary in the classics. Not the typical Baffert running style either.

We also have two colts by War Front, a sprinter by the great Danzig. Danzig offspring could at times see out 10 furlongs, but were at their best at a flat mile. Omaha Beach, who held on desperately in the Rebel, had to cut back to a sprint to break his maiden in his 5th start and looks far from certain to see out even 9 furlongs.

War of Will also took 5 starts to break his maiden, and like Omaha Beach wasted some time on the turf, but since has been on a monumental tear, winning his last 3 by open lengths. However, the chinks in the armor started to show last out. While his rider has been able to position him advantageously, War of Will has been eager and on the bit in the early stages. He cleared off strongly at the top of the stretch in the Risen Star only to shorten stride a bit through the stretch. Had the late running Country House been able to maintain a straight course, we might have seen a similar stretch run to the first division of the Rebel. Instead, the former lugged in badly and War of Will appeared to win more comfortably than he probably did.

That said, the front-running corps is light in this field, with the Exchange Rate (another son of Danzig) colt Lemniscate coming off a wire job on the grass perhaps the most likely pacesetter. He showed good speed in a couple of sprint tries and with an inside draw seems to have a free lane straight to the front at least into the first turn.

Spinoff, a son of Hard Spun (yet another sire son of Danzig) blitzed a light field on or near the lead in his comeback at Tampa. He looked a bit green in the process, but was stretching out for the first time while coming off the bench. He ran a couple of good races during the summer as a 2yo then went on the shelf, so he's playing catch-up, but the profile hasn't stopped horses like I'll Have Another, Silver Charm, Danza, or Proud Citizen from making a dent on the Derby trail in the past. Worked sharply since and hails from a freakish if fragile female family. Could prove tough for War of Will to get away from especially with the added 1/16th to deal with.

Limonite is bred to run all day and was basically blocked or in tight from the 3/16th pole to midstretch in the Risen Star. He might outrun his odds and improve form off his last with a cleaner run. He performed admirably against the likes of top juvenile Signalman in a couple of starts last year. A bit more appeal than the suspect Country House in my opinion, although all the closers are up against with the dearth of true front-running pace lining up here.

:11: Hog Creek Hustle: Good exotics horse but not on top. Like the way he runs and will give a effort.

:7: Mr. Money: Was competitive early with War of Will in last. Second off the layoff suggests that this was the race being aimed for. Ready horse at 20-1.

:3: Lemonite: See the :7:.

:10: Spinoff: Caught a 5 horse field in last at Tampa. Will include but have doubts.

:6: War of Will: The Mr. Obvious horse. Could be the best, but the odds are not there.

:2: Lemniscate: The inside speed is going to take them a long way on the front. Upset special.

i can't bet this race

I'm rooting for War of Will to run a big one.

Still hasn't earned my trust 100%... But I can't name a fault

War of Will looked like Barbaro in the Risen Star.

hate to say it (not because of the breakdown, but because i loved that dude Barbaro on the track, and I don't even trust WoW...)

turf horse versatile runner can win up on the pace, wide

If he can actually show that his Risen Star was legit and that he can go at an honest pace again and run them off their feet... It's him and baffert to me in the Derby...


so i'm rooting for him

hot pink Gary Barber #6 War of Will

?

I agree with this, but think there might be some pace in the race w/Lemniscate, WOW, and Spinoff-think Spinoff gets sent

the 11 and 3 seem like nice long shots. i like them both. maybe they won't be long.....haha

add the fav and pletch and box

Will he be short going long . . .
 

I liked him in the Risen Star and without a doubt War of Will looks exceptionally tough here but his backwards . . . LeComte to Risen Star E2/LP - 1c/2c suggests he may be vulnerable at longer distances. I think w/a little bit of front end adjustment and some racing luck, the Pletcher/Velazquez colt can win this one.

:10: Spinoff to win.

This is one of the two races I wrote analysis for (free) Keeneland Select:


I'm keying Sueno top and bottom but absolutely betting a few bucks to win and place on Limonite, who was stopped when rallying last time out.



https://www.keenelandselect.com/blog...k-day-march-23

I will make a $50WPS bet on :3: Limonite 20/1.

I had been waiting on this colt since last year and his first race back trip in the Risen Star was not the best trip from the #10 post. Now put on Jose Ortiz and I am all over it.

GL

This. :ThmbUp:

I am all in on spinoff :10: Hard spun colt with WOW :6: in 2nd, 3rd goes to:4: Sueno. But i might box them ha