Jeff P |
08-04-2022 01:53 PM |
Tom, I ran a similar query for SAR dirt routes using top 2 HDW PSR.
Code:
UDM Definition: SAR-DirtRouteTest
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: D*
Distance Req: R
HDW PSR: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 2 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
Track: SAR
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Show on Text Report: False
Filters Applied: -DATE: 7/14/2022 to 7/31/2022
Dirt (All*) ROUTES (From Index File: C:\2022\Q3_2022\pL_profile.txt)
Track: SAR
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 130.80 111.70 89.50
Bet -112.00 -112.00 -112.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 18.80 -0.30 -22.50
Wins 20 32 33
Plays 56 56 56
PCT .3571 .5714 .5893
ROI 1.1679 0.9973 0.7991
Avg Mut 6.54 3.49 2.71
From there I broke the above HDW PSR rank <= 2 data out by rank for a handful of other factors and pasted the breakout data into a text file: here.
Code:
By: CompoundAP Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.00 34.00 1.8235 10 17 .5882 1.6471 6.20
2 19.30 20.00 1.9650 5 10 .5000 1.4000 7.86
3 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 0.50 16.00 1.0313 3 8 .3750 1.0500 5.50
5 -6.40 12.00 0.4667 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.60
6 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 1.40 6.00 1.2333 1 3 .3333 0.9333 7.40
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Code:
By: CompoundE2 Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.70 32.00 1.8969 9 16 .5625 1.5750 6.74
2 10.20 20.00 1.5100 5 10 .5000 1.4000 6.04
3 -8.50 18.00 0.5278 2 9 .2222 0.6222 4.75
4 -2.80 20.00 0.8600 2 10 .2000 0.5600 8.60
5 -6.20 12.00 0.4833 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.80
6 -0.60 8.00 0.9250 1 4 .2500 0.7000 7.40
7 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Speaking from my own personal experience here:
It's not terribly difficult to create rules based spot plays that point out +ROI areas in the past.
I'm often amazed that seemingly obvious factors are not just overlooked, but to the extent they are sometimes overlooked.
That said, most of the time, when I subject rules based spot plays to forward testing:
The +ROI is seldom repeated any time soon.
But every once in a while, the shelf life is longer than you might think.
And I ask myself:
What confounding factors are out there making that possible?
Haven't subjected this to any kind of forward testing yet.
But either way --
Tom, interesting thread. :)
-jp
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