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-   -   Stock Market Prediction (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133768)

thaskalos 11-02-2016 02:19 AM

When ReplayRandall talks stocks...even E. F. Hutton listens. :)

reckless 11-02-2016 09:00 AM

We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

forced89 11-02-2016 09:03 AM

I'm 100% in a Low Duration Bond Fund, Gold, Silver and my horses. I believe that the probability of a big move down is greater than a big move up during the next 12 months.

Valuist 11-02-2016 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

If Trump wins, a company like Gilead could skyrocket. After Hillary's comments against biotech and big pharma in mid 2015, those stocks all took a pretty severe haircut.

PaceAdvantage 11-02-2016 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing

I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living... :lol: :bang:

Secondbest 11-02-2016 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living... :lol: :bang:

Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA

ReplayRandall 11-02-2016 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Secondbest
Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA

Ambitious strike of 45.00, wouldn't you say?

Parkview_Pirate 11-07-2016 02:46 AM

hold on to your hats...
 
Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.

reckless 11-07-2016 03:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.

There will be huge trading moves these next few weeks, regardless of the election outcome.

This is why I mentioned earlier that it's best to build a position in a great company such as Gilead over a period of the next few months.

If the market skyrockets solely because of a Hillary win, it only demonstrates yet again that the financial markets are as corrupt as the US government and Central Bank.

Your opinions are worth much more than two cents, Park... :)

Parkview_Pirate 11-07-2016 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

I had to read this post a couple of times, but still couldn't find the /sarcasm tags.....are you serious?

Your assumptions that longer term small caps will grow is possible, but relies on things staying pretty much the same, with the Fed continuing to print madly, and somehow the U.S. staying out of war. That's a bad bet, IMHO, in the age of an empire in decline, and the rule of law for the oligarchs pretty much non-existent.

Many of the brighter minds of economics are betting on a huge deflation event. If that occurs, then a $140 stock today may be trading for $25 three years from now, if not out of business. Anything in health care is only a few pen strokes away (nationalized medicine or tossing Obamacare into the ditch) from skyrocketing OR dumping. Gun and ammo manufacturers are in the same boat. Durables like cars, washing machines, etc., are harder to come by when almost 100 million are not in the work force, and those remaining with employment are often taking a pay cut.

Our infrastructure is falling apart, and with the various levels of government scrambling more and more to balance their budgets with increased revenue, they're finding the lemon has been squeezed, peeled, grated, has no more juice, and the lemon orchard has been chopped down for firewood.

What does war usually do to an economy? With all the saber rattling going on, that seems a pretty good bet. Perhaps some defense stocks?

For now, I'll stick to short term trades. But if someone was going to hold a gun to my head and make me buy stocks that I had to hold long term, I'd be looking at petroleum or water companies. And that's about it....

sammy the sage 11-07-2016 07:19 AM

Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign...

would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless"...those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in... :faint:

FakeNameChanged 11-07-2016 07:42 AM

Futures
 
Futures are crazy this morning, day before election.

pandy 11-07-2016 07:55 AM

Long Term
 
The way I see the market going forward with a Clinton Presidency is the start of bear market at some point in the next year or so. But, I have a hard time factoring in corporate sales from overseas. Can our economy continue to stay flat or weaken, but the corporations still do well because of China and other countries? What if those emerging economies hit a bubble? I'd love to see some practical analysis of this.

Here in the U.S., it's hard to see how the middle class doesn't cut down on spending. The average home owner now has three mortgages, health care insurance, mortgage, and property taxes. My parents had one mortgage, their health care was covered by their employer, and for most of the years that they owned their home real estate taxes were dramatically lower than they are now.

Add to that the high cost of college education and student loans and the high cost of health care in general. Then you have the potential for amnesty for illegals, continued illegal immigration, which would create even more welfare payments and more stress on the economy, which equates to more demands on the American taxpayer. I don't see how the Americans can spend enough money to keep wall st. hopping.

So the question becomes, can overseas sales keep these corporations profits growing?

classhandicapper 11-07-2016 09:22 AM

Wall St is definitely backing Clinton. A Clinton presidency means business as usual.

More bonuses, more bailouts as needed, more easy money from the Fed, more rape and pillage of the US middle class, more rape and pillage of 3rd world countries, etc.. #letthegoodtimesroll

The problem is the world is in the largest financial asset/debt bubble in the history of mankind. It's going to blow up on somebodies watch and it appears very likely it will be within the next 4 years.

reckless 11-07-2016 09:51 PM

Ahhh, a wonderful day in the stock market, with a very strong Hillary Will Win rally.

Since the reason for the rally is totally and completely groundless, I took this opportunity to unload on a few companies I've held for some time.

I will use the freed up cash to buy some of the more incredibly undervalued companies when the markets take a hit on Wednesday and Thursday. And it will, giving back most or more so its gain today.

You see, if the market rallied today simply because of a perceived but incorrect notion of a Hillary win, these same silly paper shufflers should sell, sell, sell! with a Donald Trump victory, no? That's a yes. Yes they will sell, sell, sell!

I just can't wait as the cognoscenti will be proven wrong once more.


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