Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Fourteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees 0% chance of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171018_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 7 :10: Smart Boy (4-1): Going up in Class and that's a nice jump in Hong Kong from Class 4 to Class 3 and was all out in that Class 4 race. His speed figures a little light for Class 3 too, with others who look to be a little faster than him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 7th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :2: Winfull Patrol (11-1)

Race 038 (winners: 2nd and 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 2 :10: London Master (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4: Wah May Baby (2-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :1: Great Joy (7-1): Broke well with Moreira and took his usual running position at the rear of the field while heading into the first turn, swung to the 4 path entering the stretch full of run but started throwing his head around when room was unavailable. Moved a little further out for room, closed well but was never able to get close to the winner. (He prefers going longer than 1200 which he is entered in for today).

Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1): Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :5: Fun Manager (5-1) Race 031
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1) Race *720


Key Plays:
Race 6 :6: Master Albert (2-1)
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Kim Glory (13-1)
Race 5 :7: Pearl Warm Warm (16-1)
Race 6 :3: Breeders’ Star (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Roundabout (15-1)

last time: connected on furious Pegasus (4.80, 2.70), cp power (9.30,3.50), citron spirit (10.10, 3.20) and little giant (3.80, 2.50) to win. unfortunately none of my other keys hit the board so I was 4/9 to place too (losing $) and 0/10 on both quinellas and omnis.

https://www.offtrackbetting.com/resu...ceday=20171013

today's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :11:
race 2: :8::12:
race 3: :4::6:
race 4: :2::12:
race 5: :2::10::8::3:
race 6: :6::5:
race 7: :3::7::2::10:
race 8: :1::6::4:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 18, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Winners of the 2nd (London Master) and the 7th (Who Else But You) were both very impressive, while the 5th race looked light for a Class 4 going in and it also looked that coming out. Race 051 looks to have a possibility of becoming a key race soon, what with the winners of races 124 and 125 coming out of it.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 (121) #10 Megatron: Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.

Race 8 (126) #9 Super Form: Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 (121) #4 Wah May Baby: Raced down the backside in a perfect position with nobody around him, Moreira started rubbing on him with 450 metres to go, hooked up with the eventual second place runner with 200 to go. Moreira had to hit him 15 times to the wire in the stretch just to get up by a head. Picks up 5 rating points which will put him at 59 just under for him to stay at Class 4 while carrying 133 pounds in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (119): 90
2nd (120): 98
3rd (121): 98
4th (122): +92
5th (123): -94#
6th (124): 100
7th (125): 100
8th (126): 98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongat Sha Tin. Fifteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171022_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 9 :10: Top Beautiful (5-1): Is two for two but was all out in his last while getting a 12 pounds allowance against Beauty Master, draws the 12 hole with the short run to the turn and a little tougher overall field from his last.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (winners: 3rd and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 1 :6: Lucky Time (7-1)

Race 038 (winners: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, second: 8th)
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)

Race *801 (winners: 2nd and 7th, second: winner)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)

Race 022 (winners: 6th, 7th and 10th)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)

Race *807 (winners: 3rd and 6th, second: winner)
Race 4 :1: Circuit Hassler (12-1)

Race *757 (winners: 4th and 7th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :9: Fish N’ Chips (12-1)
Race 2 :12: Aeroluminance (32-1)
Race 3 :2: Good Method (9-1)
Race 6 :5: Solar Hei Hei (15-1)
Race 7 :2: Thewizardofoz (6-1)
Race 7 :7: Dashing Fellow (16-1)
Race 10 :5: Hang’s Decision (35-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :9: Yourthewonforme (7-2): Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Race 3 :10: Laughing Lord (16-1): Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 9 :14: Star Of Patch (9-1): Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire. (May be a little outclassed in today’s race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :4: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787
Race 6 :7: Dinozzo (5-2) Race *787
Race 8 :8: Winner’s way (12-1) Race *757
Race 9 :8: Daring Fit (5-1) Race 027

Key Plays:
Race 5 :9: Flying Noble (5-2)
Race 10 :2: Nothinglikemore (8-5)


Longshots:
Race 1 :12: Hot Hot Pepper (12-1)
Race 2 :4: Great Treasure (18-1)
Race 3 :11: Snowhooves (20-1)
Race 6 :12: Rickfield (26-1)
Race 7 :9: Fabulous One (36-1)
Race 8 :8: Winner’s Way (12-1)

last time: connected on wah may baby (5.50,3.00) and gonna run (9.10,3.30) to win while gold velvet (5.10) and master albert (2.60) hit the place line for a small loss in both markets. only 1/11 (12.10) in the elusive quinella pool but 3/11 (55.40) for a winning day in omnis. heartbreak in the 7th where I key Moreira who runs out while my other three contenders run 1-3-2. win some, lose some.

tonight's guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: pass
race 2: :6::14::8::3:
race 3: :9::1:
race 4: :6::5:
race 5: :9::4::2:
race 6: :7::3:
race 7: :2::9::3:
race 8: :11::13:
race 9: :2::9:
race 10: :2::11:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 22, 2017
Track: Sha Tine
Bias: Speed held a little better than normal for the rail at the “A” setting.
Key Races: *773

Notes for the day: Times were all over the place, days like this gives figure makers nightmares. Race 2 broke a track record at 1600 metres for Class 4, the winner Morethanlucky picked up 8 rating points for the effort, his number still keeps him competitive at Class 3 where he will most likely carry around 120 pounds. Race 5 came back very slow and will try and avoid or play against anything that will come out of that race. Lucky Bubbles made a nice run in the stretch while switching back and forth on his lead step, only to beaten by Mr. Stunning by a half-length and who had already had a race under him since the break. Should reverse the outcome the next time they face each other. A real clunker of an effort by Beauty Only in the eighth race. In the 9th Super Fluke earned an above average number for Class 3 and with him only picking up 7 rating points it will keep him in Class 3 for his next race. Top Beautiful in that same race was taken too far back and ended up caught in the was in the stretch, not a very good ride by Moreira. Nothingilikemore is now rated up to 109, welcome to the big boy’s table.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #1 Circuit Hassler: Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 #7 Supper Hoppy: In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 #8 Jolly Jolly: Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #6 Lucky Time: Had everything go his way, a nice pace that set up for him and finally outfinished some tired rivals while racing on his wrong lead step in a very slow time, even with a nice headwind in his face.

Race 5 Anything out this race.

Speed Figures:
1st (127): 92#
2nd (128): +101#
3rd (129): 93
4th (130): 99
5th (131): -90#
6th (132): 105
7th (133): 109
8th (134): 109
9th (135): 103
10th (136): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Sixteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Clear skies 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm (Usually plays more towards speed than any other track in Hong Kong)

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171025_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 027 (winners: 1st, 2nd and 3rd)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :6: Wealthy Fortune (35-1)
Race 5 :1: Bold Elegance (19-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Girl (7-1)
Race 8 :12: Back In Black (14-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1): Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 1 :5: Gorgeous Again (7-2): Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1): Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2) Race 068
Race 5 :8: Multigogo (7-1) Race 001
Race 6 :3: Speedy Wally (4-1) Race 052


Key Plays:
Race 2 :3: Victory Follow Me (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Starlight (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Jolly Gene (9-1)
Race 4 :1: Dr Race (18-1)
Race 6 :5: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 8 :10: Happy Happy Star (9-1)

last time: a lot of bets on Moreira with only yourthewonforme (race 3)and nothingilikemore (race 10) grinding out chalky wins. 5/9 hit the place line for a small loss in that market. it was another brutal day on quinellas (0/12). omnis continue to be a bright spot as I went 3/12 for another winning day. $10 hong kong prices posted above.

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :3:ensuring :1:
race 2: :3:victory follow me :8::11::1::4:
race 3::2: cloud nine
race 4: :6:elegance promise :3:
race 5: :5:look eras :2::6:
race 6: pass race
race 7: :2:winwin ruby:4:
race 8: :1:starlight :5:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 25, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 085

Notes for the day: In the 1st Gorgeous Again had no visible excuse for such a poor effort in the first, Nash pretty much just wrapped up on him early in mid-stretch after he figured not to have anything under him. Premium Champion in the 3rd was a quick pull up after his race. Impressive win by Speedy King in the fourth, looks to be a nice push button type with his figure being just above average for the class, even after the slow start at the break. He picks up 6 points which will allow him to compete again in Class 4 once more. Lucky Girl was very unlucky picking up 2 rating points after a nice second place run which will move him back up to Class 2 which looks above his capability at the moment even with the weight allowance. In the final Starlight outclassed a decent Class 3 field, rating is up to 81 which will force him up to Class 2 but getting to race with low weight, will lose Purton for that out due to Zach not being able make that weight. In that same race there were plenty of trouble trips: Navas, Grace Heart and Back In Black all encountered enough interference to impeed their final running positions.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 (143) #8 Bank On Red: Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 8 (144) # 6 Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (141) #5 Look Eras: Nash had to use every ounce of run he had in him to get up to the wire in a slow Class 4 race. Picks up 5 points off that effort, which will force him to carry around 131 pounds for his next race in Class 4.

Speed Figures:
1st (137): 103#
2nd (138): -93#
3rd (139): -94#
4th (140): 97
5th (141): -93
6th (142): -96
7th (143): 101
8th (144): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. Seventeenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees few clouds 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00amET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171029_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :1: Le Panache (7-2): Closed well in his last at 2000 metres at 20-1, is adding 200 more metres here but is also adding 8 pounds on his back, will bet against him with only one out of thirteen races in the money and a .02% trainer.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :2: Wah May Baby (11-1)
Race 10 :11: Jumbo Luck (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5): Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip.

Race 5 :11: Megatron (4-1): Had been showing more speed early in his races lately, but took a slight leap out of the gate forcing Teetan to take him back early on so not to be caught wide going into the first turn. Settled mid-pack on the rail, had to be taken up slightly going into the first turn, moved to the middle of the track at the 300 metre mark for the run for home. Dug in well while never changing to his proper lead foot. He never really having a true chance of catching the top 2.


Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :3: London City (14-1) Race 030
Race 4 :12: Show Mission (18-1) Race 066
Race 10 :2: House Of Fun (19-1) Race *742


Key Plays:
Race 2 :1: Love Chunghwa (7-2)
Race 4 :1: Merrygowin (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 :7: Island Fever (12-1)
Race 3 :8: Rocket Let Win (11-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Right (15-1)
Race 8 :9: Relentless Me (13-1)

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *751

Notes for the day: First two races of the day were slower than par while the last came back quicker than normal. Haymaker encountered quite a bit of trouble after breaking from the 11 hole in the 3rd, but he has never shown any inclination of winning or he would have made my watch list. Merrygowin was unluck not getting up for the win after conceding 16 pounds to the winner. Very impressive win for the Aussie first timer in Hong Kong Powermax, had plenty in the tank even after encountering trouble at the break. Line Seeker loses a rating point which will keep him in Class 2, closed well after being blocked in the stretch. In that same race Southern Legend is now up to 102 which puts him in Class 1, should be able to compete there with the weight allowance.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Better Choice: First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders, hopefully he while be able to get a top allowance rider for his next race at the Valley.

Race 9 #1 Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. Picked up 2 rating points off the effort which will bring him up to a total of 92 which will allow another try at Class 2.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #11 Sharpmind: Was hit a total of 15 times in the stretch by Risoli and was non-stop for the last 70 metres just holding off the favourite Merrygowin while getting a substantial weight allowance.

Race 5 #2 Wah May Baby: Was a quick pull up after his poor performance.

Speed Figures:
1st (145): +89
2nd (146): -93
3rd (147): 95
4th (148): 96
5th (149): 98
6th (150): +99
7th (151): 98
8th (152): 102
9th (153): 103
10th (154): +107

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Eighteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “AWT”, track listed: Fast

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 :12: Imperial concorde (4-1): All of his victories have been on the dirt surface, but was all out just to miss in his last and drawing the 13 gate with the short run to the first turn doesn’t bode well for him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *755 (winners: 1st and 3rd, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :6: Kirov (6-1)

Race *771 (winners: 8th, 12th and 13th, second: 6th)
Race 3 :11: Holy Unicorn (16-1)

Race 039 (winners: 7th and 10th, second: 3rd and 4th)
Race 3 :3: Happy Beauty (8-1)
Race 3 :5: Diamond Friends (2-1)
Race 3 :7: Equity Doctrine (11-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1): His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 :9: Sure Peace (22-1) Race *774
Race 5 :11: Goal For Gold (8-1) Race *762
Race 6 :3: Fantastic Feeling (35-1) Race 053

Key Plays:
Race 7 :3: Willie Way (8-1)
Race 8 :6: Divine Boy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Trendiful (20-1)
Race 2 :5:Giddy Giddy (11-1)
Race 3 :1: Jimson The Famous (30-1)
Race 6 :7: Lucky Guy (12-1)

last time: 3/7 to win with look eras (63.50 hk) sandwiched between the chalkier cloud nine and starlight. ensuring hits the place line but i again suffer defeat in that market. finally breakthrough with a pair of quinellas to suddenly get back into contention for the season on the exotic.

season: win 11/33 1.07 roi, place 17/33 0.81 roi, quinella 3/43 0.93 roi, omni 8/43 1.31 roi.

today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: :6:foxbat :3::8::1:
race 2: :10:startling power :3:
race 3: :5:diamond friends :3::12:
race 4: :11: confucius spirit :5::10:
race 5: :1: gran master
race 6::10:most beautiful :7:
race 7: :2:red marvel
race 8: :6:divine boy :1::8:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Sprints were considerably slower than the route races with the exception of the last race, which was the only race on the card that was faster than par. Going to give Willie Way another try after closing strongly in the lane after going extremely wide in the second turn only to get beat by a neck by the favourite.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Pick Number One: First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds, hopefully he’ll pick up a bug boy and get an allowance.

Race 8 #9 Classic Emperor: Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Red Marvel: Moreira had to really get into him in the lane going to the whip 15 times to hold off Willie Way who had a much tougher trip than he did. Will be forced to carry top weight of 133 in his next start in Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (155): 89
2nd (156): 94
3rd (157): 94
4th (158): 102
5th (159): -95
6th (160): 99
7th (161): 100
8th (162): 110

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Good Luck everybody with The Breeders’ Cup this weekend!

last time: get off to a good start with Foxbat ($76 hk) in the opener but can only win with lower priced diamond friends and red marvel in the next seven. divine boy hits the place line. 0/11 in both quinellas and omnis.

season: win 14/41 (1.18 roi) place 21/41 (0.82) quin 3/54 (0.74) Omni 8/54 (1.04)

November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:lucky lucky :1:
race 2: :9:winner st paul's :11::7::12:
race 3: pass race
race 4: :2:i'm a witness
race 5: :13:midnite promise :6::2:
race 6: :1:great joy :4:
race 7: :4:time warp
race 8: :8:tai smart :1::6::7:
race 9: :1:spicy sure
race 10: :10:big bang bong :2::5:

is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on..... :bang:

everything is good now at amwager!

good luck to all hong kong bettors. :)

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Nineteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :5: Conte (8-5): Might be a nice runner, but as a first time starter for John Size breaking for the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres at Sha Tin it will most likely have him parked wide throughout. Will watch him closely and try and beat him today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 059 (Winners: 7th and 9th, second: 8th)
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :9: Hot King Prawn (7-5)
Race 7 :4: Time Warp (9-5)
Race 10 :1: Hang’s Decision (36-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :6: Amazing Star (9-2): Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 4 :3: Ambitious Heart (8-1): Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 7 :14: Nassa (18-1): Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire. (May be a little out of his weight class in today’s race making a jump from Class 2-104 to a Group three race-110.)

Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1): Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1): In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. (Unfortunately, he’s not racing at his preferable Happy Valley course.)

Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1): Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 ¾ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :1: Great Joy (10-1) Race *791
Race 8 :3: Jolly Gene (27-1) Race 104

Key Plays:
Race 6 :4: Red Elysees (7-2)
Race 8 :1: Circuit Hassler (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :12: Sweet Home (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Doyeni (11-1)
Race 9 :14: Call Me Awesome (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Jolly Jolly (13-1)

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 5, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed
Key Races: 074 and 093

Notes for the day: Track was a little faster than normal due to the rail position and the installation of the winter rye grass. In the first both Amazing Star and Alcari picked up enough points to go up to Class 3. Undefeated Hot King Prawn picked up 9 rating points up to 77, so will pick 9 to 10 pounds next out while still racing at the same class level. Diamond King closed well late in that same race, look for him to go further. Was off on the first time starter Conte, won for fun while breaking from the 12 gate, should improve off that effort in class 3 with the weight allowance. Will give Red Elysees out of race 6 another try next out, was caught in on the rail with no running room in the stretch and Jolly Jolly in the 10th. Nassa picked up 18 points winning the Group Three Ladies’ Purse, Circuit Land, Eagle Way and Rocketeer encountered enough trouble to have a line drawn thru their races.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #5 Fifty Fifty: Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. Picked up 2 points for a total of 91 which will allow him to run in a 95-75 Class 2 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #9 Winner St. Paul’s: Won a very slow Class 5 race while getting a perfect trip.

Speed Figures:
1sst (163): 99
2nd (164): 89
3rd (165): 100#
4th (166): -96
5th (167): +96
6th (168): 96
7th (169): +112
8th (170): 98
9th (171): +100
10th (172): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Joao Moreira involved in a spill on the Melbourne Cup undercard, nasty spill. No broken bones in the report, just very sore.

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/art...-falling-regal

lor will probably get winner st paul's back up to a 95 on your numbers woodbine. he's almost an automatic play right now.

i don't want to be a keyboard warrior like these australian punters but i'm about to stop picking and betting moreira. he just doesn't come in for me. the hk cards are more interesting when he doesn't ride but i do hope he's ok as i don't want to see anyone hurt, human or equine.

great thread and great circuit to follow though. could only be better with american saddlecloths. :)

hong kong question????
 

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"??? :confused:

On - is their opening odds
td - their current odds.

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Twentieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Few Clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 :11: Generous Heart (7-2): Is 0 for 5 in Class 3 after holding off a longshot in his last at the Class 4 level in a very average time.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won)
Race *722 (winners: 7th & 10th, second: 2nd)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Treasure (35-1
)
Race *792 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 3 :7: Funny Buddies (25-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 4 :5: Trendy Win (9-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :6: Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 5 :5: Fairy Twins (14-1)
Race 6 :5: Goodheart Success (24-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1): Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 7 :9: Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1) Race 012


Key Play:
Race 3 :6: Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 :8: Bank On Red (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 5 :1: Golden Harvest (14-1)
Race 6 :12: The Sylph (10-1)
Race 7 :9: Grace Heart (11-1)
Race 8 :4: House Of Fun (13-1)

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/art...valley-meeting

breaking news: moreira's out for happy valley.....

last time: worst session yet with only winner st paul's crossing the line first. time warp and spicy sure get gobbled up late. :bang:

season: win 15/50 (1.01 roi) place 24/50 (0.75 roi) quinella 3/66 (0.60 roi) omni 9/66 (0.90 roi)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :4: savannah wind :2:
race 2: :7: elegance promise :11:
race 3: :10: otouto
race 4: :10: supreme storm :12:
race 5: :6: new elegance :1:
race 6: :4:jade fortune :12:
race 7: pass race
race 8: :12:starlight

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 8, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Speed
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: With the winter rye planted and very little rain lately in Hong Kong and also the rail out to the B position speed was holding a lot better than normal. Race 8 was a little above average for a Class 2 race at the Valley while races 2, 3 and 7 were a little light. In Race 4 Forever Posh closed well against the bias after running very rank in the early stages. The winner of Race 5 Fantastic Eight picked up 8 rating points off his easy victory while running a figure that will have him competing against Class 2 runners next out with the weight break. Going to give Grace Heart out of Race 7 another go second time in a row that he was compromised at the break being knocked sideways and forcing him to race near the back. Was hoping the judges wouldn’t give Archippus any points after his bad draw and making a nice move against the bias only to be beaten by Born In China who ran a huge figure, but unfortunately he was rewarded ONE point which will move him up to Class 1. That race looks to have a good chance of becoming a key race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #1 Breeders’ Star: Drew the 9 post with the short run to the hook at 1200 metres at the Valley, was caught flat footed when the gates opened costing him at least a length to the field but worse all putting him in a position against the track that night. Was able to save ground in the turn, closed well in the stretch only to be a length and a half off the winner while only being hit twice in the stretch by Callan, looked full of run in the gallop out.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 4 #6 Curling Luxury: Had a perfect trip and was still only able to get up by a neck and not getting to his proper lead foot while beating the favourite who raced against the track and surrendered 17 pounds to this one.

Speed Figures:
1st (173): +94
2nd (174): 95
3rd (175): -94
4th (176): 97
5th (177): 105#
6th (178): -99
7th (179): 98
8th (180): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

nice win there on bank on red.

market went up to $9!! :cool:

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 11th the twenty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% chance of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171111_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :7: Acturiat (9-2): Just missed in his last after going wide and be beaten by the favourite at 45-1, going to play against the maiden in Hong Kong that was his win effort.

Race 7 :7: Limitless (8-5): May be missing something here but can’t figure out why they are betting him so heavily in here? Has been off since July and even those races aren’t fast enough to win this.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *705 (winners: 3rd, 6th & 7th, second: 8th)
Race 8 :2: Fortune Patrol (122-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd & 10th, second: 6th)
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 :8: Wish Come True (85-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 4 :6: Regency Darling (24-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 9 :1: Rattan (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 :3: Super Hoppy (9-2): In his debut race in Hong Kong after going 3 for 3 in Australia where he raced right off the leaders, raced in the back early on Sunday. Was 2 wide in the turn then was stuck behind by a great wall in the stretch, squeezed his way thru at the 200 metre mark, continued to the wire while never really having an opportunity to catch the winner who ran an above average time for the class.

Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1): Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 7 :1: Booming Delight (8-1)
Race 10 :3: World Record (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 :1: Right Honourable (17-1)
Race 5 :10: Bossiee (14-1)
Race 6 :4: Back In Black (29-1)
Race 10 :13: G-One Lover (16-1)

last time: 0 for everything in a truly embarrassing performance. :bang:

season: win 15/57 (0.88) place 24/57 (0.65) quinella 3/71 (0.56) Omni 9/71 (0.83)

tonight's guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :10:brilliant monkeys :12::9:
race 2: pass race
race 3: :14:indigenous star :11:
race 4: :9:numero uno :11:
race 5: pass race
race 6: :8:young legend
race 7: :3:western express :10::5:
race 8: :3: bravo watchman :5::11:
race 9: :6: tai smart :13:
race 10: :8:volitation

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 11, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *778, 094 and 098

Notes for the day:
Races 2, 5 and 7 came back a little soft for their respective levels, while the 10th was a very tough Class 3 race. Very poor showing for the So’s first time starters in Hong Kong, heavily bet Gouten Of Garo in the second ran an inexcusable effort in a very slow Class 4 event. Smart Charade was wide after drawing the 12 post in the fourth and was hand ridden to the wire, while Eighty Eighty had enough trouble to give him another chance. In the fourth Dashing Dart, Numero Uno, Har Mar Heart and Royale Elegance’s races can be drawn thru with all the trouble they encountered. World Record earned a figure that will make him competitive in Class 1 what with the weight allowance, he drew away easily with plenty in the tank.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 #10 Brilliant Monkeys: Had been away since June, he needed the break because his efforts before that were very uninspiring. After being bet down to 9-2 was bumped sideways at the break forcing him to the rear of the field, was in tight on the turn full of run while traveling in the 2 path. Moved out to the 5 lane entering the stretch and continued a nice move all the way to the wire but was unable to catch the lone speed winner, galloped out very nicely past the line.

Race 4 #11 Royal Elegance: Was very unlucky in the draw with the 13 post, broke with a little more action than usual and became rank soon afterwards when Pebble grabbed his head to take him back. Had to check up at the 650 mark when Har Har Heart started to want to get out, split two at the 250 spot and closed to within a head bob of the co-favourite, with his figure 2 points above par for Class 4.

Race 5 #5 Eighty Eighty: One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 10 #5 Ping Hai Star: Drew a very difficult field for his first try in Hong Kong for Size and Moreira while exiting out of the 14 hole. Of course with the connections was bet down to 7-2 as the second choice at the windows. Took a left turn out of the gate costing him his usual running style at the front that he had been showing in his barrier trials, raced at the rear in the 3 path was blocked for the early part of the stretch but forced his way clear at the 200 metre mark the same time the eventual winner favourite was making his winning move. Moreira put the stick away for the final 50 metres after not being able to close the distance on the winner while never getting to his proper lead step. Galloped out past the winner after the wire, should improve with a go under his belt in his next after only picking up 2 rating points up to a total of 74.

Horses to avoid next out:

Speed Figures:
1st (181): 91
2nd (182): 87 ?
3rd (183): 97
4th (184): +98
5th (185): -93
6th (186): 102
7th (187): 104
8th (188): 101
9th (189): 98 #
10th (190): 105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 15, 2017 Twenty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 72 degrees Few clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171115_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *721 (winners: 2nd and 9th, second: 1st and 10th)
Race 8 :6: Happy Spirit (27-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th and 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 :9: Balay Balay (19-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :4: Double Master (17-1)
Race 3 :4: Bond Elegance (12-1)
Race 4 :1: Happy And Healthy (9-1)
Race 6 :11: Smart Declaration (14-1)
Race 7 :3: Victory Boys (5-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1): Even though the race came back a little slow for its class, he had a real eventful race while going 2 wide in the first turn, then 4 wide in the turn for home and having to move almost to the outside rail in the stretch only to be beaten by a head against a rival who was able to save ground on the rail in the turns.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 7 :10: Super Form (7-1)
Race 8 :10: Lucky Girl (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 :5: Pearl Warm Warm (30-1)
Race 6 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (21-1)
Race 7 :8: Photon Willie (14-1)

last time: Moreira gets indigenous star and western express under the line first. if he stays inside maybe he wins with bravo watchman who is nipped by longshot golden sun? young legend hits the place line to give me my best place price of the season and I believe my first profitable session in that market?

season: win 17/65 (0.86 roi), place 28/65 (0.70), quinella 3/80 (0.50), Omni 10/80 (0.78)

today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend)

race 1: :10: kim glory :7::3::4::1:
race 2: :12:spicy double :3::2:
race 3: :4: bond elegance :6::2:
race 4: :7: never better :4:
race 5: :3: exceptional desire :11::1::6:
race 6: :9: wayfong Vinnie :7::12:
race 7: :2: red marvel :4:
race 8: :5: big bang bong

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 15, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 086, 143 & 147

Notes for the day: The first and the fourth came back a little light for their respective classes. Phantom Falcon earned a nice figure out of the 3rd and should be competitive in Class 3 if he gets a nice draw with the weight break going up in class, after running 4 seconds out of 5 races he may have figured out it’s better to have your picture taken then going straight to the test barn. The final time in the 5th may have been an effect of the slow pace, will look closely at Born Dragon next time out though after all the trouble he had to endure. Will try and beat Keep Moving in his next go, his number went down in this win but had to dig down for the extra effort while defeating Money Boy who had a much tougher trip. Super Form ran a good race for me while just missing by a neck after having to travel the wide way around. Watch the final and judge for yourself how much trouble Pikachu and Beauty Prince encountered in it to see if it was significant enough to put on the watch list. Send me a message and tell me what you think.
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20171115/HV/8

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #2 Gallant Return: In his second lifetime try where he had run a game second to Fantastic Show in a Griffin race last September. Drew the 9 hole and the services of Mr. Purton who took him straight to the back in order to save as much ground as possible all while the eventual winner was loose on the lead. He then became a little rank half-way down the backside, moved well in the stretch gaining on the leader while racing in traffic like a veteran, Zach only went to the stick 3 times in the final 70 metres. Should be sitting on a win if he can get a little more pace, didn’t pick up any rating points to stay at 59 and stay in Class 4.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #3 Exceptional Desire: A front runner who was able to get an easy lead in a slow paced race after breaking from the rail. Was out run by Confucius Spirit (25-1) who did have a 16 pound weight allowance but Exceptional Desire gave up the lead without much of an effort in the final 100 metres, was a quick pull-up soon after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (191): 90
2nd (192): 91
3rd (193): 99 #
4th (194): 93
5th (195): -93
6th (196): 100
7th (197): -99 #
8th (198): +105

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 19, 2017 Twenty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 71 degrees cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171119_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 :4: Ensuring (5-2): Hasn’t won since July 5, 2015 and is only 1 for 25 at Sha Tin, always seems to be there but never comes thru.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *684 (winners: 1st, 4th & 8th)
Race 3 :11: Compassion Star (8-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 2 :3: Crown Avenue (5-2)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 :5: Hang’s Decision (28-1)
Race 9 :10: Happy Journey (27-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 :12: Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. (May be in a little over his head in here, was hoping for another Class 2 race)

Past watch list runners:
Race 4 :9: Gorgeous Again (13-1) Race 074
Race 5 :12: Circuit Hassler (8-1) Race 130

Key Plays:
Race 5 :1: Rocketeer (8-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Bubbles (2-1)
Race 9 :8: Top Beautiful (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 :7: Ambitious Pins (22-1)
Race 4 :14: Happy Contender (19-1)
Race 5 :6: Prawn Baba (10-1)
Race 9 :9: Starship (19-1)
Race 10 :6: Momentum Lucky (26-1)

Trouble evaluation?
 

I thought both runners you mentioned as possibly compromised sat the trip patiently until they straightened up. They both had time to uncoil and come at the lead, but neither offered much more than an even kick late. The wide rally at HV usually seems better than the inside “wait and strike”, but rail runners must show something to get a pass and these two didnt, atleast for me. I will follow both for educational purposes. Good punting.

last time: completely blanked to win as the slump continues. five picks hit the place line and I get a pair of omnis for small profits in those markets. quinellas, as usual, are donations.

season: win 17/73 (0.76) place 33/73 (0.76) quin 3/95 (0.42) Omni 12/95 (0.83)

today's picks for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: :11: furious Pegasus :6:
race 2: :8: good fit
race 3: :6: noble de love :11:
race 4: :4:ensuring
race 5: :2: dinozzo :4::11:
race 6: :4:gold mount :3:
race 7: :1:luck bubbles :3:
race 8: :8: horse of fortune :12::1::6:
race 9: :8: top beautiful :2:
race 10: :7: jing jing win :1:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 19, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers on the turf
Key Races: 080 and 134

Notes for the day: Race 3 came back very soft even with the final time in line with par. Enduring in the fourth ran his usual race looking like a winner at the top of the lane but never kicked in enough to get up first to the wire. Amazing Agility in that same race ran a very nice race considering he was forced wide again. In the first of the Graded races, Time Warp put a scare in Werther what with Berry really having to get into him to get by Time Warp at the line, Moore had made reference to Werther being not in 100% for this race the out should have him good to go for December. Very strange race with Leung letting Harbour Master get away from him in the backside. In the Sprint Chadwick on Peniaphobia took the lead then slammed the brakes on him in the turn causing a serious traffic jam helping Mr Stunning with him racing wide not getting caught up in it. They don’t take too kindly on that kind of riding in Hong Kong, and was severely reprimanded for it. Watch list horse Sichuan Dar ran a game race in the Mile only losing by 2 at 58-1, hopefully he’ll be dropped back down to his proper class. Beat The Clock continues to improve, exploded to the wire under a hand ride carrying top weight against a good Class 2 field, out of that same race look closely for Fortune Booth to win next time out.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 5 #4 Sacred Elixir: Made a nice improvement in his second race in Hong Kong, was outrun in the stretch by the Moreira ridden favourite Dinozzo after racing two lengths off the leader on a track that looked to be favouring closers especially on the outside. Picks up 3 points for a total of 95, hopefully he can draw in to a 95-75 Class 2 instead of the 100-80 like he did in here.

Race 7 #1 Lucky Bubbles: In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 7 #9 D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (199): 92
2nd (200): 96
3rd (201): 95
4th (202): 102
5th (203): 104
6th (204): -109
7th (205): 109 #
8th (206): 110
9th (207): 100
10th (208): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongat Happy Valley. November 22, 2017 Twenty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% rain Wind: N 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171122_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1): Lifetime of 1 for 30, 1for 19 at the Valley and winless at this level, no thanks.

Race 4 :6: Golden Effort (4-1): It’s a lot to ask for a first time starter to break from the rail with the short turn soon after the break, if he doesn’t get out well he will be all caught up in the wash.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 6 :2: Jade Theatre (7-1)

Race 147 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 5th)
Race 1 :6: Treasure Gold (7-1)
Race 1 :9: Haymaker (4-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 2 :5: Wealthy Fortune (21-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 :12: Merrygowin (7-2)
Race 8 :5: Magnetism (13-1)

Key Play:
Race 2 :1: Proud Sky (10-1)
Race 7 :1: Super Fluke (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :5: Trendiful (16-1)
Race 5 :1: Amazing Feeling (14-1)
Race 8 :8: Go Go Win (13-1)


HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

last time: (finally) strike big with good fit (184.50 win) and appear to be headed for a good day when dinozzo (31.50w) takes the fifth and I get a (very) rare quinella. the rest of the card's pretty much a disaster though. gold mount is outclassed, lucky bubbles gets in trouble about four times, horse of fortune gets jenny's blessing before burning huge late money, and top beautiful is outkicked by an 80-1 shot before jing jing win disappoints in the finale.

season: win 19/83 (0.93 roi) place 37/83 (0.78) quinella 4/106 (0.46) Omni 14/106 (0.80)

today's guesses for happy valley

key (contend)

race 1: :10: glory horsie :9::2:
race 2: :10: island flyer :7:
race 3: :7: the full bloom
race 4: pass race
race 5: :3:sichuan boss :8::12:
race 6: :8:sir redalot :7:
race 7: :4:simply brilliant :2::7:
race 8: :9:relentless me :6::8: