Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
 

I think he will take the triple crown, but will bet against him modestly. I had Bravazo as the one to beat him in the preakness. Probably will do the same thing, odds depending.

I will not include Justify on a single ticket.

I am just going to watch the replay.

Bravazo isn’t much? Hahaha okay

If you see him put in 1 good work between now and the Belmont, he'll be a 'single'(in the sense that you won't want to bet against him, but there's no bet unless there's a false favorite in preceding legs).

If he can only gallop up to the Belmont, and has more hoof work done, take a shot or pass.

He won the Preakness on about 80%. He put away Good Magic at about 80%. There's talk about Bravazo or Tenfold 'almost winning'. At no point did they look like a winner or were even involved in the race that Justify and Good Magic were running. They sucked up and got closer near the wire and would have needed the finish line to get up and run away. (Kinda like Audible's so-called competitive race with Good Magic in the Derby).
He did all this after running the Derby on a bad hoof, coming out 'off'(lame may be technically correct, but is a poor word choice in this context) and then being medicated, and having his hoof reconstructed, being shipped, and limited to jogs and slow gallops with only 2 weeks time.

If you see him put in a good work before the Belmont, there's a good chance that he's as close to 100% as he's been since the optional claimer race in March.

He's got 3 weeks, a better hoof, less shipping and medicating, a chance to work and hold condition, and the added distance is only going to HELP him. The other entrants better all enter a rabbit, because he's going to control the pace at 12f without exerting himself.

The race comes down to who or how many are going to go with Justify from the start?

I think it simply comes down to wheter Justify can 'get' 12F.



Regardless of pace or heat or anybody getting after him, he has repelled all that thus far.



The only question remaining is 12 panels IMO.

I really like him too. I'm hoping that his inconsistencies still make him a longer odds horse for the belmont but it's unlikely now with the field so far. I want another Awesome Again / Ghostzapper pedigree to race against him and Justify in the Belmont but I don't know if that's possible or even if there is a contender like that.

Justify has proven himself again and again. He only had a narrow margin of victory because that's how he ran the race. Mike Smith can press for more at any strategic point. Whoever wants to be the rabbit will sacrifce showing up in the money and then we see the same thing as the Preakness (exciting this time but will be boring for the belmont). I'd rather watch a race where Justify just takes the lead, sets his pace, wins easily and see how it goes in the last bit of the race with the other horses proving for 2 and 3rd honestly. Because there's more to the race than the race for first place. :ThmbUp:

This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.

Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."

I will bet him to place like I did in the Preakness & received the same money as a win bettor.

Doesn't work that way.

Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.

War Emblem was a form cycle issue and not a speed horse going to his nose out of the break, first take I have heard like that.

I'll gladly play against 4/5 chalk in the Belmont. Excluding AP, 9 of the last Triple Crown bids were spoiled by a horse that did not compete in all three legs, what Chrome's former owner called "cheaters". I'll look for fresh legs like Hofburg, Vino Rosso, or even Blended Citizen.

I am not directly comparing the two. I am saying the most likely result is he finishes up the track in 3 weeks like War Emblem, rather than, say, beaten by a short margin a la Real Quiet or Funny Cide.

up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?

There won't be a horse like GM who will be a threat like that, with the unknowns of "what if" GM can keep up and Mike using more of the horse than necessary to keep position. He can have whatever timing he wants in better conditions. It probably won't be foggy either and hopefully not a sloppy, dangerous track again.

Justify likes to lead, he's got a will for it, it's not a problem. Unlike the closers who lack foundation and still learning to want to pass horses. Even the tested My Boy Jack doesn't like to pass horses. A closer isn't going to beat Justify. So far, Bravazo is the only one who can beat him in the Belmont. and any early runner/presser trying keep Justify's pace is going to be too tired to pass him.

The track offers bets (trifectas and supers) where I can capitalize on this. I plan to.

mud is fine, the issue is if hoof crack and bruise that delayed his start until February and then that he had to run the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby on.

He was fortunate to have it properly repaired before the Preakness. Belmont may be his last race, or they may give him an opportunity to really show that he's bounced back and wants to run in the Classic.

Think about Ax Man and co for the Travers from BB.

He has not been thriving. Only good thing you can say is that he's so talented that he can beat these guys at 80%, and he's so tough that he hasn't quit.

His preakness was like trying to win a handicapping contest with the worst migraine of your life, or a quarterback trying to win a game with a mild separated shoulder.

Look out for his pre-Belmont works.

Here is Pharoah's pre-Belmont work. Date was Mon June 1st 2015 = so you are targeting maybe Monday June 4th 2018 for the same general type of pattern
starts at about 4:30 on the video and put in a solid breeze.

If you see this from Justify, expect that his form has improved from Post-Derby/Preakness to Pre-Belmont. If you don't see any works, then there is more of a question as to whether or not he is thriving again.

How do you know justify is 80 percent. Just seems kind of arbitrary to me

It's just sensible to consider that Justify can lose if he doesn't recover and will definitely win if his hoof bruise hasn't worsened (or if there is a sign that it doesn't bother him). Robert gives great advice :ThmbUp:

Justify is definitely an adrenaline junkie who can tough out most minor problems. So foot problem or not it's the work out that will tell us how he'll perfom come Belmont :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Still would only modestly bet against him. If I didn't learn my lesson from HOPING a longer odds horse could win the derby I would've lost money again.

I'm expecting Justify in fine form, but still betting Bravazo in the win spot at least one tri ticket. It's just better for my mind, only thing worse than losing is not playing a horse I like out of uncertainty and doubt then having it come through like I thought in the first place.

I won't know anything until about 6:00 Saturday, June 9, 2018.

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

Great points.

Voted doesn't run
 

But I wish "40th day of rain" was an option, then I would have voted wins the TC and is the only slop horse in history to never have it held against him.

I'm not sure I would say any horse ran well yesterday. I was happy with Tenfold, he was my pick, but he still only caught the rump end of a 97 Beyer, damning with faint praise if ever there was. I was happy for Assmussen. You have to like him just for his hair.

Definitely more impressed with justify. Stronger competition. And while pimlico was speed favoring. Atleast he was pressed. American pharaoh had it all his own way after the derby. Reguardless though he was great

The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.

He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.

He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.

He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.

I'm stunned that the most popular vote is to toss.

The latest twitter poll results are in but I did it a little differently. These are with 108 votes.

25% Yes, I'll single him.

65% No, I'll spread

10% Doesn't run

I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him :ThmbUp: "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?

Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?

Valid point, but a low priced underlay will have a much greater affect on the overlay/underlay of a horizontal than a horse at 6-1 that should be at 8-1. In long horizontals (P4-P6) I make tickets based on coverage probabilities and then play or not play based on the perceived value of the entire ticket.

If certainly wouldn't play Justify on top of any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or as part of any DD or P3 if I thought he was an underlay.

Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.

Off topic, but what will happen to the value of those American pharaoh win tickets if justify wins? Will they always have value because he was the first in 37 years? DRF sent me one in the mail that year a few weeks after the race

My thoughts exactly.

Toss.

Like cookies.

I hope Audible runs, because he will take money & I don't think he will hit the board.