Justify’s Form Cycling Downward
 

BRIS Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 100
OC75k/n1x-N 104
SA Derby-G1 114
KyDerby-G1 102
Preakness-G1 98


“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” - James Quinn


Justify gave Baffert four triple digit efforts, reached the peak of his form cycle in the Santa Anita and he is now trending downward – first time under triple digits.

Depends on what speed figures you use. On TimeformUS, he's still the same.

BEYER Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 104
OC75k/n1x-N ?
SA Derby-G1 107
KyDerby-G1 103
Preakness-G1 97

RACING POST RATINGS

Mdn 54k 104
OC75k/n1x-N 110
SA Derby-G1 123
KyDerby-G1 123
Preakness-G1 115

Thorograph figs - 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 -?

Anyone know what he got for the Preakness?
That board atTG is far too pathetic to read anything .:rolleyes:

Justify- is he a better slop runner or is he a better
 

dry runner????
Justify is a big horse, so he has big feet????, so slop might not be his strength.

Slop-
"Trainers get tired of hearing it from us, but some horses just don't handle it," Baze said. "Ideally, horses with small feet and a concave hoof will handle it better. "

Preakness
 

OFF ratings
Quip-113
Lone Sailor-106
Sporting Chance -106
Diamond King -110
Good Magic -112
Ten Fold -112
Justify -105:confused:
Bravazo-106

Racing Post are not speed ratings. A horse will never get a big rating for a maiden or an allowance, just isn't going to happen.

Timeform, oldest to newest:

112
107+
126+
127+
120

TimeformUS, adjusted to 126 pounds, oldest to newest:

129
122
131
127
128

Prof.Factor's speed figs (that's what I use) ;-)

121
126
133
132
131

That set more or less matches my "class oriented" thinking. I'd probably rate the SA Derby a tad lower relative to the KY Derby.

In this case, 'condition' is the major model that is driving 'form'.

In order to understand and predict his form, you have to understand the problems that he's had with his physical condition.

• HE DID NOT RACE AT 2YO - This was NOT a sporting attempt to foil the Apollo Curse... This was not because he was tall and wanted to grow into his frame... This was not because they wanted a late bloomer... This WAS P.U.P. Physically Unable to Perform. He had minor surgery to clean up an OCD lesion in his stifle, then he kept having heel cracks
• They finally had him ready to go in February 3YO
• He dominated two races while dealing with heel cracks
• He dominated the Santa Anita Derby but aggravated his heel problems
• He dominated the Kentucky Derby while asked for everything he had and aggravated his heel problem
• He came out of the race lame
• He had an expert come in and scrape off the bad portion of the heel and replace it with synthetic patching material and then design a way to shoe him while best protecting his hoof bruise
• He may or may not have been medicated for the hoof reconstruction and for the shipping, He may or may not have been aggressively treated regard pain in the hoof bruise.
• With only 2 weeks between races, and a few precious days spent on treatment, He managed to get in a few jog/gallops one of which was at least a decent hard-held gallop the day or two before the Preakness
• Ran in the Preakness and gutted-out a win

Justify's Belmont may be the first time since maybe his allowance that he'll have both a solid hoof and enough time between races to run his 'A' race.

We will have to watch for a pre-Belmont workout. He should go out to the track, put in a normal 4f breeze with a gallop out. (Monday June 4 would be ideal, anytime between the 1st and 4th would be fine).

If we see that, we will know that his condition has improved again, and he'll run about what he ran in the Derby.

If we don't see this work(meaning that he 'gallops up to the Belmont') we will know that in spite of Baffert's ideal plan of giving him a work around the 4th, that his condition is still too poor to meet the schedule of preparation. We can then be wary that his condition may be close to as poor as it was following the Kentucky Derby and prior to the Preakness.

That is where you need the speed component. It was no fluke obviously he was heavily bet in the SA Derby despite not having faced much class wise.

I'll be looking for that work.


~


I don’t have a dog in the speed figures contest, I simply noticed a pattern through observation and thought it would make for a good thread. The deeper I dug the more pronounced the pattern became, now even more so with more numbers likely to come. Handicapping can be wonderfully intriguing . . .



Before Roman left the game in 2016, his website contained a chart titled: Speed Figures: A Comparison of Performance Figures, Timeform Ratings, Racing Post Ratings, BRIS Ratings and Equibase Ratings. Therein, the correlation coefficient between Roman’s Performance Figures and the Beyer Speed Figures was .88. The correlation coefficient between the Roman Performance Figures and the BRIS Ratings was .87. I used the BSFs to get to the PFs. I used the BRIS 100 to get to the OC75 . . . remember I’m looking for patterns. Roman’s Performance Figures also fit the pattern of declining form. The PFs suggest Justify’s form is in a perilous decline, more so than I initially thought. With the PFs, the higher the negative the stronger the performance. When I saw those numbers, I though what if this horse doesn’t hit the board . . . man somebody is gonna hit for boxcars. :cool:


ROMAN Performance Figures

Mdn 54k PF -62
OC75k/n1x-N PF -50
SA Derby-G1 PF -70
KyDerby-G1 PF -60
Preakness-G1 PF -45

Good post. I miss Roman's site. I recall Chrome was practically handed the trophy then only hit the bottom of super courtesy of a DH. American Pharoah aside, the Belmont has been extremely kind to bettors going against a Crown contender. This feels like another year to go for those boxcars.