Results 5/11/04 HAW, CRC, RD, and final Recap
 

Whew! The 500 race test is over, finished up with 26 selections today that yielded 7 winners and the barest of profits. In order to save room here, I'll just post the winners today:

CRC:
4) #5 WON $11.40

8 other losers there today, 4 of which finished 2nd, including an 11-1 shot in the 6th who looked like a winner until the final 50 feet or so...:mad:

RD:
3) #10 WON $6.00
6) #7 WON $4.00

2 others finished 3rd, the other 5 were out of the money

HAW:
3) #4 WON $7.40
4) #7 WON $14.80
5) #7 WON $6.00 pick-3 $186.40
6) #4 WON $4.40 pick-3 $119.20

2 others finished 2nd, including a 17-1 shot in the 2nd who led into the stretch but was blown away by the favorite in the lane, 1 finished 3rd, and 1 finished out.

26 plays - 7 wins, $52 bet - $54 ret'd profit +$2.00

Overall since March 25th:

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%

That's it for now - this was somewhat tiring! Gonna take a break for a couple a weeks, let the BEL and HOL models fill in, then maybe try another one of these after the Belmont Stakes runs in June. In the meantime, good luck to everyone, and thanks to everyone who contributed positive comments and vibes along the way - and thanks to PA for letting me do my thing here!

Steve

Nice Job Steve, Thanks for posting your selections !

ZAFONIC

steve
 

thanks for all the help you gave me steve. you are a top notch person. i hope to keep in contact with you and good luck. stay safe.will be looking forward to your next adventure!!

frank

Nice work Steve, I like your approach :) :)

Very impressive Steve. One of the best 500 race runs I've ever seen playing almost every race. Congrats to you and powerline.

Nice job Steve.
 

You beat the game!

fffastt

Steve,

That was a very, very nice performance. When PA started this board many years ago we had a poster named "Peopleplayer" that claimed that nobody could ever post a 100 picks and show a profit. He even offered a monetary prize if someone could do it. Several people tried, and "Peopleplayer" (Carl?) even tried to do it himself a few times. In fact, once Peopleplayer got so close himself to accomplishing the challenge, that he decided to withdraw his cash prize offer. However, it still took a long time before someone actually accomplished the feat--and not too many people have accomplished it since. But nobody had ever picked as many horses as you did and still show such a healthy ROI, i.e. +11%. Therefore, I again want to congratulate you on a very, very nice performance. If you can repeat that performance, then you will prove to a lot of sceptics out there that this game can be beaten. Great job!

Que.

That was a great ride Steve, I enjoyed every day of it. [ and made a few dollars too.]

Thanks

I followed along the whole time, great job!

Good idea to take a rest, enjoy it, and come back later.

Just wanted to add my note of congrats for a job very well done Steve. As Que pointed out quite a while back "Peopleplayer" had offered a challange to anyone to post a winning workout of over 100 plays his thinking being that no one could do it. Much talk on the board of a software challange also but you just stepped up and hit a home run. I think a grand slam home run, as the KISS method although a fair way, is also a very hard workout to do. I think that if Sal's picks were tallied up over the course of his posts you would also find a winning result. Someone posting picks or not I can understand either way as some will say it is just a "ego" thing. One last item Steve, if you get a chance drop into the War Room some weekend, you will be amazed at the level of ability of some of the people who chat there. With Keilan, cj, d2u, teeitup, JoeG and others I can hardly get all the bets in!!!!!!!LOL I freely admit I like stealing their picks.

Melman and Que.
 

I wonder if Steve could still collect on Peopleplayer's offer ??

:)

fffastt

Que

Not taking anything away from Steve,but If you look at the results of the PK4 contest, you and I had a much more impressive record. We theoretically bet $5200 and I doubled that and you more than doubled that returning more than a 100% profit each.

I have to reemphasize that I am not taking anything away from Steve and this is not a critique of his product(so calm down Roco) ,but personally I would not want to bet a $1000 and get back $1100. The time and effort is too great for such a small profit. I can get 7%ROI just in offshore rebates.

Light,

I doubt he was betting $2 per race to win 100. At 100 per race, that profit would be 5000. He did it over 500 races. Betting 20 races per day 300 days per year would be 6000 races. Bet a 100 per race for the year, that is 600,000. 11% ($66,000) of that is worth the time and effort for me!

CJ

I'm not sure I understand all your math.I know your average player is not going to bet 1/2 mil to make a 10%ROI.All I know is his results are a 10% ROI. My point is if I was offered a 10% ROI in win betting or a 100% return in exotic betting which do I choose?Let's see.

In my math,he bets $5200(the total investment of the Pk4 contest) in win bets and returns a $520 profit. I bet $5200 in Pk4's and get back a $5700 profit. Same investment,different output. So sorry I am one of the few not impressed with Steve's results allthough I agree most handicappers cannot do what Steve did. But I'm not in this game to lose or eek out 10%.

If you think you can consistently win 100% betting P4s, more power to you. The impressive thing about Steve was he did it over a large volume of picks. Lets be honest here, the small sample size of the P4 contest doesn't really prove much.

By the way, people make very handsome livings "eeking out" 10% on Wall Street! You'd be surprised how much money you can bet in a year when you churn that same money over many times a day.

Its not the ROI, its how much you make.