question on odds
 

Trying to add another weapon in my arsenal. I have been a bit more selective on what races I wager the past few months. Fewer wagers have resulted in more profit at the end of the wagering day.

Now I want to really concentrate on my pick and only wagering if there is value instead of just wagering to pick a winner. My question is this: For those of you that only bet if you think the horse has value, meaning he is 4/1 and should be 2/1, is how do you determine if the horse should be 2/1?

I need a bit of help in that area and any suggestions would be much appreciated.

That is all subjective

This was helpful...can you pretty please expand on your thoughts? Makes me wonder why you bothered to reply at all.

Nah, that was enough insight on my part.

Wow.

:lol:

As a starting point, decide on who the win-contenders of the race are...and then ask yourself: "How many times would each contender win, if this race were run 100 times?". Your win estimates could then be easily converted into an odds-line. Of course, as with everything else in this game...the more sophisticated you are as player, the better your odds-line becomes.

Beyond just the speed figs...

Who's riding?

If there's a rider change, is the new rider better or worse than the previous rider?

How does today's rider stack up vs. the riders of the other runners in the race?

Who's training?

If there's a barn switch, is the new trainer better or worse than the previous trainer?

How does today's trainer stack up vs. the trainers of the other runners in the race?

Is today's surface different from the surfaces of previous running lines? Think beyond the obvious such as turf to dirt, dirt to turf, wet to dry, and dry to wet, etc.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually better than they look at first glance because the horse couldn't handle the surface that day? Or raced on the worst part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse up a little if today's surface is different from that of an uglied up previous running line.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually worse than they look at first glance because the horse caught an ideal surface that day? Or raced on the best part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse down a little - especially if today's surface is different from that of a previous prettied-up running line.

Same thought process applies to pace scenarios, class, distance, gate draw, good rides, bad rides, good trips, bad trips, workouts, changes in physical appearance, and just about any other thing you can think of, etc.

Experience helps.

So does record keeping.

Imo, record keeping can help you discover not just whether or not someting matters - but the degree to which something matters.

No one thing is a game changer by itself.

But taken collectively, lots of subtle things matter.



-jp

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Value has to come from somewhere significant. It's generally not enough to agree with the public while quibbling about slight odds adjustments here and there. Usually you need to hate one of the public's top contenders or love one of the public's longest shots on the board.

When you have these significant opinions, the first thing that's going to change is the odds rankings (You have a horse ranked 5th most likely that the public has first most likely). You will also develop a feel for what a 2/1 feels like in a certain pattern. Sometimes it simply comes down to understanding why the public is betting, looking at the board and then adjusting for your opinion (They love this horse's last race and have him at 7/5, and while he's the most likely winner, I do not agree with the public about that last race and he feels more like maybe a 2/1 shot that I want to pass here at 7/5).

The answer is that without a sophisticated computer model, you can't. Given takeout, there won't actually be a lot of horses that represent "value" and if they do, it will be marginal....i.e. getting 5:2 on a horse that actually should be 2:1 is really very good value. What you might be able to do over time is develop a reasonable feel. Also, understand that if you are playing exotics, vertical or horizontal, the diffusion of takeout through added positions can create better "value" than straight win odds.


The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.

This is a great post, honest and accurate.

I think this is the key. Part of my play is actually looking through all races run in the country and flagging poor favorites (using computer modeling) and then see if I find something I like in the race thus reducing the takeout. I have found that is an easier way to find value rather than hoping my selection is not quite bet properly.

"Effectively" being the key word. I tried to create "value" by eliminating the favored :7: in the 4th at Thistledown today...a horse whom I considered the very epitome of the term "false favorite". And the horse repaid me by winning easily. :)

Get the book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow. Barry devotes a chapter explaining how to set your own line. It's probably the best book ever written about the math of horseracing in an easy to understand format.

Get a copy of The Four Quarters of Horse Investing - Steve Fierro.

https://www.amazon.com/four-quarters.../dp/B001N07M66

Good read about how to look at a race to decide how predictable it is.