Authentic retired
 

This sort of thing makes it so hard for the sport to bring in new fans. Imagine if Patrick Mahomes had retired after winning the Super Bowl last year.

This is also why there are so few legitimate Grade 1 races for older males now, why it's more worth taking a shot with a top mare against males now, why we often see lower speed figures for older male stakes horses etc.. The best ones are more lightly raced and retired long before they are fully seasoned and at at their physical peak. Then we are left with the also rans and pretenders to take over the division the following year.

synic. skeptic.

'we need to retire him before he gets a banned substance test positive'...that's what it feels like. skeptical about every "champion" bb has ever trained.

used to be when two runners overembolden each other the way swiss skydiver and authentic did in the preakness, they're both off form the rest of the year. one barn runs clean and it holds true. the other...doesn't feel authentic.

Even Baffert himself showed you how it is done with this. When he got an excellent gelding, Game on Dude, no choice but to keep him in training, and he won all sorts of races and money with him, much of it beating up on those decimated California handicap division fields (although to be fair, the field he beat in his final Santa Anita Handicap win was top notch).

We saw it with California Chrome and Gun Runner too.

Authentic was a monster
 

it's an insider's game

if I want to breed to an Authentic, I need to either have guaranteed $$ from a partnership selling shares, or be a partner with one of the major players, who has a trainer of record, or is partners with a
Supertrainer.

https://i.ibb.co/RjW8SqD/jose.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/T2ZWb8c/giannis.png
(i guess that's redundant, and goes for all colts and fillies, but double with certain Stallions)

if I'm doing something with some horseman who is a 2nd generation horseman, or whatever and lives and breathes the trade..., then I go for some Stallion who didn't race for the insiders, and showed perfect fundamentals and a willing heart. Raise a few, then you have a few pets or niche horses, and hopefully get one to the track, and play the game on your level.

I still don't fully understand the economics of this sport.

I understand how some lucky owners can make more money breeding than racing and how the opposite is often true with mares, which is why they keep running (Monomoy Girl may be back).

However, most owners are losing their shirt.

Yet they keep paying these huge prices for yearlings, which of course supports the prices for stallions, which in turn supports the incentive for retiring them early.

It seems like we have what amounts to being a bunch of economic lunatics buying million dollar lottery tickets hoping for a huge score but losing their shirts on a net basis.

I don't buy lottery tickets, but you can sort of get why an average guy might buy a few dollars worth hoping to change his life.

Why are they vastly overpaying for yearlings and throwing their money away?

The math should tell you what price range is reasonable for yearlings overall based on their potential earnings power and residual value (usually none but sometimes a major score). Then you get into specifics later. If you want to pay a small premium for the fun and are willing to get little or no return on your investment I get that. But some of these guys are incinerating large sums of money on what amounts to being lottery tickets that are damaging the sport.

Not surprised. The resume is short but is good enough where Authentic will command a decent fee for breeding. The owners protect their investment and cash out probably making a healthy profit.

I think a lot of buyers spending six or seven figures for horses at auction aren't in it for the money. They've already made significant money from businesses endeavors outside of racing.

I think a lot of them aren't all that different from many of us here at Paceadvantage. Quite a few of them were horsesplayers who developed strong ties to racing somewhere along the way.

And now that they have significant money... It isn't about the money.

I think it's about stepping up to the plate, taking a shot, having fun, and maybe catching lightning in a bottle.

That said, I wish horses were a LOT more durable.

I would LOVE to see the best of the best stick around and race well into adulthood (instead of being sent to the breeding shed never to race again past the age of three.)



-jp

.

Need a $5 million bonus added to a horse that wins the Big Cap, Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Pacific Classic out west in the same year.

Need a $3 million bonus added to a horse that wins the Whitney, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold Cup back east in the same year.

Of course, if they implement it in 2021--judging by what's left-- Midcourt and Mr. Buff might be able to take those bonuses down in their respective regions.

I've heard this argument before and understand it.

I own a small piece of a couple of horses now. I went into it expecting to lose a few dollars, but I considered the fun of it "with a kicker" to be worth it for me at this stage of my life. I'm one notch above the guy that knows lotto is a losing proposition but plays big days anyway.

I have a way tougher time understanding throwing around millions, 10s of millions, and maybe even 100s of millions over time no matter how much you have. I guess if you are an oil sheik nothing matters, but I'd be willing to bet a lot these guys have lost a substantial chunk of their net worth on horse racing lotto tickets by vastly overpaying and imo it's not helping the racing aspect of the game.

What the true percentages are one can only guess but at least some of it is a way to launder large sums of money. Just like so many of these businesses that are somehow still going strong with nobody in the parking lot every year. I have firsthand knowledge of some of this, that's as far as I'll go with it. :)

Adding a guess here, but I think insurance premiums must be a big part of the equation. Considering the potential long-term value of a successful stallion (or even the initial few years before we know how his foals will do), it seems like you need to insure for a really high number to protect yourself. Someone feel free to correct me, but I would think you start the year in the hole and have to race your way out of it.

Makes it hard to hold on to your old ones, too.

I don't know why he couldn't finish his career with the Pegasus at GP in January. The purse ain't what it used to be but $3M is not chump change.

This makes me suspicious that he's not 100% healthwise.

It seems like breeding is for those who like to gamble but the pots at the windows are too small. Like how I have no interest in penny poker. A few weeks ago I heard Sid Fernando say words to the effect, "You buy 10 or 12 at the sale averaging $750K per hoping you can hit on one or two of them as a stallion"

...as an Eclipse Champion.


Woops... that's so last century.

Breed to Breed. The racing is an afterthought.

The breeding is more important than ever because that's where the cash is made but personally I concentrate more on the races and the jockeys.

Eclipse Champion Maximum Security - Coolmore Ashford 20k
 

Very good racehorse.

You got it right.


and besides, a Baffert exacta, on a scraped-down track.....what racing fan would not find this thrilling?

Authentic time in BC Classic????
 

Maybe this has been addressed somewhere else, but I can't find it.

The final time listed for Authentic was 1:59.19.

How reliable is that?

Why were no fractions listed?

Is this distance at Keeneland the problem?

I never heard a full discussion of it anywhere.

I can figure some kind of timer malfunction, but why?

What are the details?

I talked about it on the TimeformUS Pacecast today which I posted a link to earlier. It is in the beginning when talking about the Classic, the very first race we discuss.

Global Campaign retired, I guess that effort Saturday was all that is needed for the Breeders to flock to him.

A. Beyer was on the Byk show and said he used 1:59.83 the Trackis time. He said they could not hand time the video with any degree of accuracy. He also said this is like the fifth 1 1/4 race at Keeneland in the past five years.

I really shouldn't say this but I will. It is now better for horse racing and fans that a small group of highly talented three year olds in early Spring get injured for five months and are forced to sit it out and make a comeback at four. Take Charlatan. Do you think if he had won the Belmont in June, and he would have been the favorite had he run, that he would be running as a four year old? Not a chance, he would be off to the breeding shed like Authentic. His injury was a blessing for those who want to see him run and possibly achieve greatness. I never want to see a horse get seriously injured, but a minor one with a full recovery is what is needed now to have a stellar older division.

Did they go thru with that? I thought as of Nov 8 they were thinking of keeping him in to run in Pegasus?

If he did retire, then that's half the BCC field retired.

Authentic, Max, Improbable, Toms De'Tat all retired as well.

At least Tom was 7.

Per Authentic racing in Pegasus: "It just didn't make sense for us."


So much for the fans.

.

So horses are better off getting injured, even if slightly, for your "pleasure" and "those who want to see them run"? (but you never want to see a horse injured .... even though you just said you did). :rolleyes:


I think it's understandable exactly how the perception of horse racing is in the toilet when I read stuff like this. :bang:

Well to your credit, you did say you probably shouldn't say that.
I really don't know anyone who even thinks like this.

The game is the draw not a couple of individual horses. I thought the COVID handle at the small tracks made that quite clear. Why bother with the useless handwringing?

Wasn't horse racing basically the only form of legal gambling during the COVID shutdown? Does the day-to-day handle match those on "big days" when the top tier horses are running?

The problem is that the older division stakes program has been decimated along with the proportion of the top 3yos that continue on as 4yos and older.

The group of horses you were talking about (horses that missed the TC, the TC also-rans that time off, and the late bloomers) usually targeted the Strub series at Santa Anita (3 top level races at 7f, 9f, 10f) at the end of the year. But the bright folks at SA and the Stronach Group decided to do away with the series so that they could concentrate on making the San Antonio some sort of prep for their fake multi-million dollar race at Gulfstream. In the process they've exposed the Big Cap to a possible multi-level downgrade (it should be a Grade 3).

California has 3 10f stakes spaced about 2-3 months apart over the entire year but all the preps in-between (San Pasqual, San Antonio, San Bernardino, Mervyn Leroy, Californian, Bel Air) are gone or soon to be gone. The only other 2 10f stakes are the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic. The Suburban should be up in there, but is starting to run on fumes.

Saratoga has the Whitney and Woodward now but it's starting to appear that those races are "too close together" as many horses skip one over the other. The Jockey Club Gold Cup is starting to look like NY's answer to the Big Cap, and the Kelso moving to the dirt has been a further nuisance to the JCGC, drawing horses like Honor Code, Code of Honor, To Honor and Serve, and Uncle Mo that ultimately ran in the BC Classic.

Churchill has 3 decent stakes (Alysheba, Stephen Foster, and Clark) but Keeneland drops the ball with a couple of Grade 3 races in between CD's meets.

Pimlico Special is ready to disappear for another 50 years like it did before.

A far cry from the American Championship Racing Series which should have been a game changer in terms of keeping horses around.

If I recall correctly --

For a while, Fonner Park was averaging more than $2M per card.

And Will Rogers Downs was averaging more than $4M per card.

While that may pale by comparison to major race days... Derby, Preakness, Belmont, BC, etc.

But Imo, pretty impressive for those two track signals.



-jp

.

This has been a problem for decades. In the 2000s three Derby winners raced at age 4 or older and one of them (Funny Cide) was a gelding. In the 2010s three Derby winners raced at age 4 or older. I guess running fewer races in a season and more big-money races spread out through the fall and winter are causing it to seem like something different, but this breeding vs. racing imbalance is nothing new.

It has been a problem for quite awhile, but horses like Slew, Affirmed, Alydar, and Bid all made it back at 4 and now with all the spacing and light racing at 2 and 3 a horse like Authentic is retiring 6 for 8. :ThmbDown:

No doubt, but certainly there was an excess of wagering dollars at the ready with a lot of other sports and forms of gambling on hiatus.

As far as the big days v. day-to-day I meant to compare at the same track, e.g., Santa Anita on a weekday v. Santa Anita on the weekend. Some of the difference has to do with people having more free time on the weekend to attend the races but certainly top quality horses attract more people than normal, especially as there is a certain segment of horse racing enthusiasts who don't bet.

FWIW the Strub was really not killed by the Pegasus. It was killed by the desires of trainers re: spacing of races.

Santa Anita used to schedule as follows:

Malibu (3yo turning 4)- December 26

San Pascual (4yo and up)- second week of January

San Fernando (4yo)- third week of January

Strub (4yo)- first week of February

San Antonio (4yo and up)- third week of February

Santa Anita Handicap (4yo and up)- first week of March

That worked fine- until trainers started demanding 4 weeks between races. So what they did was move the San Antonio back to the same day as the Strub. But that cannibalized the product, leaving two very week fields in those two races, so they went ahead and got rid of the Strub. The Malibu survives as a vestige of the series.

Yes, I was chewing the scenery so to speak (wanted to blame Stronach Group for stuff). There was also a push to change (shorten, of course) the distances which they did starting in 1997-1998 when Silver Charm had a brief rivalry with Mud Route. Then the San Antonio was placed on the same weekend as you said. Later on, the advent of the Sunshine Millions, which had 9f $1 million race in late January didn't help the stakes schedule, either.

And furthermore, Santa Anita management didn't stop at just the 4yo/older horse division. They gutted the La Canada/Santa Margarita series and completed diluted their 3yo stakes by making restricted minor stakes races like the Santa Catalina (now the Robert Lewis) and Bradbury (now the Sham) open races that eventually became graded so that the big barns could keep their horses apart.

Racing really is a shell of its former self, and heck that former self is a shell of its former shelf.

The drop-off in quality of the product over the years is hard to quantify.