Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Here we go.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby really starts to heat up as we get our first 50 point Win race and a virtual guaranteed position in the starting gate at Churchill come May 7th. Even the 20 second place points will likely lock in Mo Tom and Airoforce while giving everyone else a solid step forward on their goal towards the Run for the Roses.

A solid field of 12 will look to enter the gate in the deepest Derby prep to date. (I will notate those who have already earned Derby points thus far).

:1: In Equality (2 Derby points): He did run 3rd in the G3 Jerome at Aqueduct last out, but he was never really a factor. I love me some Junior Alvarado, but this shipper will need to improve dramatically to hit the board in here. Tough to see.

:2: Mo Tom (12 Derby points): That was an impressive, and easy, win in the G3 LeComte. The connections couldn't have asked for much more in his 3YO bow. One may look at his racing style and say that he needs pace to come home in his closing style. I disagree. The fractions in the LeComte were far from brisk, but he still passed all his rivals with relative ease down the lane when the real running began. Serious serious contender.

:3: Dolphus: Rachel Alexander's half-brother has gotten a lot of hype and hasn't really put it all together based upon that hype. He was beat pretty handily 2 back by :8: Tom's Ready who is a 2nd tier contender in here. The Trainer/Jockey of Sharp and Hernandez are sneaky good and this one could get some action at the totes.

:4: Bistraya: This West Coast shipper comes in off his Maiden score in fairly impressive fashion. The game plan here has to be to get him on the lead and see if he can wire the field. There isn't much other 'legit' speed in this race, so that possibility is out there. Biggest problem is that Hoffenheim was gaining on him late in his Maiden score, and he came back on Monday in a Oaklawn Maiden race and came up short in the stretch. The extra 1/16th likely won't be kind.

:5: Forevamo: He has a nice stalking style, but not much speed of foot when it matters and has fallen short of 2nd and 3rd tier peers a number of times already. Bottom end of exotics seems to be his tops in this one.

:6: Gun Runner (1 Derby point): He ran pretty well in the G2 Kentucky Gold Cup only to come up short against :10: Airoforce, Mor Spirit, and :2: Mo Tom. Nothing to be ashamed about. Was he sent too early? That may be the reason for moving to Geroux in here who is arguably the best "big race" jockey at this venue. He has had nearly 3 months to recover from that race and is training very well. A serious contender that doesn't have to improve all that much to catch his 2 biggest rivals in here.

:7: Its All Relevant: Took 6 times to break his Maiden, and he really hasn't ran against, or beaten, all that much. As a Hard Spun fan I'd like for him to be involved, but he looks to be nothing more than a pace player.

:8: Tom's Ready (4 Derby points): That was a pretty good race in the G3 LeComte, but he was put away rather easily by the :2: Mo Tom. Johnny V gets the call which sparks some interest, and much like the :6:, there isn't a huge amount of improvement needed. Problem is, can that happen in just 3 short weeks? He didn't have the greatest of trips in the LeComte, so that should be taken into consideration as well. A definite contender, but the '1' in the Win column after 7 races is tough to overlook.

:9: Laoban: SCRATCH

:10: Airoforce (10 Derby points): If not for a neck, this one would be 4 for 4 with a Breeder's Cup win under his belt and 2 other Graded Stakes victories. The class of the field is the ML favorite, and may well be come post time. He has been brilliant since day 1, and hasn't disappointed yet. The biggest question is if he can take to a dry fast dirt track? Training lights out, and looks extremely tough in here.

:11: Zapperini: Yea, yea. A quick look at the numbers and the form say this one is well behind a number of rivals in here. However, a 2nd and 3rd deeper look tell me a different story. This one is begging for more distance, and while he won't get much more here today, it is still more. There is a reasonable amount of speed in here and a number of horses with distance questions in which he can clunk up in some exotics as he'll keep running when others are tiring and contenders are closed up to save themselves for a better day.

:12: Uncle Walter (2 Derby points): Hasn't really ran a bad race, but as the distances and competition increase, the harder it becomes. Castellano climbs on board, but this post position is extremely difficult to overlook as the 1 1/16th will be tough enough already.

:13: Candy My Boy: One may look at the form and immediately assume he is a need the lead type horse. A look at the numbers, and further investigation, tell a much different story. Those were easy leads in his last two, and he was just simply better. Brueggemann and Bridgmohan are on fire together, and this guy is getting better each time out and working well. The post is an obvious problem, but it may be a good thing to allow for this one to settle in behind the speed and make one run like a number of others in here. A potential bomber at 15/1 that will be interesting to watch on the tote board as I don't believe we'll get those odds.

W: :6::13:
EX: :6::13:/:2::6::13:
TRI: :2::6::13:/:2::6::13:/:2::3::6::10::11::13:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

close. Pretty good capping :ThmbUp: