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-   -   2019-2020 HONG KONG (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=154102)

Nitro 10-09-2019 02:05 AM

HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 10/9/19
 
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 9 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) –
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 6:45 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T……...….3-6-12 W/ 10-9-1…6:45 AM

R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…....3-5-8 W/ 11-9-7……7:15 AM

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T………….3-9-4 W/ 10-5-1…....7:45 AM

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T………...8-4-9 W/ 11-5-1……..8:15 AM

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T……..7-5-1 W/ 3-9-6………8:45 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T …….….1-3-4 W/ 8-11-10……9:15 AM

R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T …...1-5-4 W/ 10-6-9……9:50 AM

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….8-6-3 W/ 7-12-5 …..10:15AM

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….9-6-2 W/ 1-7-4 …....10:50 AM
.
.

Nitro 10-09-2019 02:07 PM

Quote:

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T……...….3-6-12 W/ 10-9-1…6:45 AM
6-12-3-11– Dutch Win 27% Profit Margin - Passed / $45.00 Quinella & $171.20 Triple


Quote:

R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…....3-5-8 W/ 11-9-7……7:15 AM
8-9-3-11– Dutch Win 57% Profit Margin / $15.70 Quinella & $90.80 Triple & ($355.60 Quartet)


Quote:

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T………….3-9-4 W/ 10-5-1…....7:45 AM
3-9-10-5– Dutch Win 66% Profit Margin / $21.70 Quinella & $299.00 Triple & ($1,405.80 Quartet)



Quote:

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T………...8-4-9 W/ 11-5-1……..8:15 AM
8-9-5-1– Dutch Win 39% Profit Margin - Passed / $12.00 Quinella & $75.00 Triple & ($224.80 Quartet)



Quote:

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T……..7-5-1 W/ 3-9-6………8:45 AM
10-9-3-12– Dutch Loss 101% Profit Margin /


Quote:

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T …….….1-3-4 W/ 8-11-10……9:15 AM
4-2-3-6– Dutch Win 69% Profit Margin /


Quote:

R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T …...1-5-4 W/ 10-6-9……9:50 AM
8-7-2-4– Dutch Loss 113% Profit Margin /


Quote:

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….8-6-3 W/ 7-12-5 …..10:15AM
7-10-1-12– Dutch Win 114% Profit Margin /


Quote:

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….9-6-2 W/ 1-7-4 …....10:50 AM
9-7-6-3– Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin / $8.60 Quinella & $201.60 Triple

It was another fun and profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 52% and was hit from winning 5 of 7 playable races. Also hit were a number of decent valued (5) Quinellas and (5) Triples.

woodbinepmi 10-10-2019 11:07 AM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 6, 2019
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None

Horses to watch for list:
Race 75
War Room (78) Just missed by a neck in his first after the summer break going 5 furlongs at Sha Tin and was full of run after the wire, now was extending to 7 furlongs and unfortunately for him he drew a very nice runner in Band Of Brothers. He broke well and was placed mid-pack down the backside on a good to yielding track, directly in front of him was the big favourite sitting in the garden spot behind a three horse battle on the front end. After travelling two wide in the turn he drifted out slightly to make a run to the wire and had the big chalk in his sight, and with 150 to go he pulled even with him but was unable to get by Band Of Brothers who will fight to the wire and in his past has shown a tendency not to allow others to get by him. War Room defeated third place runner Good Beauty by over a length and a half, not too keen on the rider but he will keep his price slightly higher if he keeps the mount next time out for trainer Ting.

Race 75
Bellagio (61) In his final race before the summer break he just got up over Empire Star as the betting favourite going 1400 metres (7 furlongs) at the Class 4 level, now after the handicappers awarded him 6 points for the effort he had to make the jump up to Class 3 for the first time. The computer wasn't very kind to him giving him the 13th gate to break from. At the break he just stood there spotting the field at least 4 to 5 lengths, after travelling 2 wide in the turn he closed well in the stretch passing nine rivals while making up 3 and a half lengths in the stretch to a very nice runner in betting favourite Band Of Brothers. He was full of run after the wire and quickly galloped out past the top two runners.


Horse to avoid next time out:
Race 71
Colorado High (57) Had a perfect trip and was able to out run a tired Majestic Conqueror who raced very green and Eptiwins who had a bad draw and Puton's runner who is 1 for 23 at this class level.

woodbinepmi 10-11-2019 03:00 PM

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. October 12, 2019… 10th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees 20% of rain Wind: WSW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20191012_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 :11: Beauty Day (5-2) Has yet to show he wants to hold off rivals when he starts to tire, and breaking from the 13 post and having #14 Cheers Vanquisher breaking underneath him Moreira is going to have use him up a little more than he’ll want. Barn only has one win out of 43 tries so far this meet.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 19 (Winners: 3rd & 8th, Second: 2nd)
Race 3 :2: Silver Fig (4-5)

Race *792 (Winners: 5th & 7th, Second: 2nd & 4th)
Race 4 :11: Little General (6-1)

Race *807 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, Second: 11th) Class 5
Race 5 :13: Above (13-1)

Race *742 (Winners: 1st, 4th & 5th, Second: 6th)
Race 6 :8: Trust Me (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 :2: Silver Fig (4-5)
Race 4 :1: Starship (4-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 :9: General Dino (47-1)
Race 7 :6: Right Choice (24-1)
Race 9 :4: Refined Treasure (12-1)
Race 9 :7: Aethero (4-1)
Race 9 :8: Multimillion (12-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 3 :2: Silver Fig (4-5)
Race 9 :5: Thanks Forever (11-1)
Race 9 :6: Voyage Warrior (7-5)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 :9: Relentless Me (2-1) Was caught wide without any cover at happy Valley last May, then at Sha Tin was caught wide again and then blocked in the stretch. Whyte picked up Moreira for this trip at Sha Tin and with the hot new trainer and the Brazilian teaming up together the betting public pounded him down as the heavy favourite. He broke well and then had an insignificant tap soon after the gate by Shouson, after 150 metres Moreira found himself on the lead with Phenomenal on his outside never giving him a breather while the two were setting a quick pace for the class and distance. At the top of the stretch with 400 metres to go, he finally shook off the cheap speed, but with 200 to go he started to tire and couldn't hold off Fun Times who had an 8 pound allowance, Joao put the stick away for the final 70 metres while beating another light weight runner Mr Magellan by a little over a length for second. A real nice effort what with him racing under a new trainer, and never getting an early breather while running a very difficult distance (7 furlongs) after the summer break.

Race 7 :8: Tianchi Monster (12-1) Had been away since a poor effort in July against Class 1 runners (obviously too much for him right now), now back at his proper level and So was able to commandeer the services of leading rider Zac Purton for the 9 furlongs run at the downtown track. He went off as the 5-2 second betting choice to Green Luck in a small field of 7, he broke well and settled in mid-pack while racing on the rail. Just before entering the stretch he moved to the two path and went to the front to challenge the front runner Ruthven, looked like a winner with 250 to go but the vacation time caught up with him at the 150 mark and couldn't hold off the Happy Valley lover Helene Charisma, Zac put the stick away for the last 50 metres. He should improve off that effort what with it not being too taxing on him, just being a little short, may show up at Sha Tin next time out.

Race 8 :2: Assimilate (8-1) His first try going 1,600 metres after a poor showing in his debut for the new season at 7 furlongs. Schofield was replaced by Ting with Rispoli, and the two of them were caught a little flat footed at the start losing a length to the field, then after 250 metres from the gate he was forced to be taken up when first time Hong Kong runner Arcatraz either had to check up or became rank (hard to tell). After travelling two wide in the turn he was temporarily blocked by Unicorn Jewellery at the top of the stretch, when clear running room became available he closed well on the top two finishers. Hopefully, Ting keeps him at this distance next time out and he gets a cleaner trip.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 8 :1: Glorious Dragon (7-1)
Race 9 :1: Saul’s Special (32-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :9: Relentless Me (2-1)
Race 8 :1: Glorious Dragon (7-1)

Longshot:
Race 7 :8: Tianchi Monster (12-1)

Nitro 10-12-2019 01:41 AM

HONG KONG - SHA TIN SAT - 10/12/19
 
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf and 2 on Dirt:
(Class top to bottom) - (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1600M C5 (8F)T……....3-1-5 W/ 9-7-4……….….1:00 AM

R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……...6-2-4 W/ 1-13-10….…..1:30 AM

R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)D……...2-5-11 W/ 3-8-9.………..2:00 AM

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….9-1-10 W/ 7-2-6 ….....2:30 AM

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….9-11-4 W/ 1-5-14 …….3:00 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)D……..…8-2-7 W/ 4-1-11……...3:35 AM

R#7– 1800M C2 (9F)T………..3-11-7 W/ 9-1-6 ……….4:05 AM

R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..…11-3-5 W/ 9-13-7….....4:35 AM

R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T……..… 6-11-7 W/ 2-5-4…..….5:10 AM

R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T…...… 3-6-14 W/ 2-4-12…….5:45 AM
.
.

Nitro 10-12-2019 02:11 AM

Quote:

R#1- 1600M C5 (8F)T……....3-7-5 W/ 9-1-4……….….1:00 AM
5-4-3-6– Dutch Win 66% Profit Margin / $45.30 Quinella & $212.40 Triple Bx

Nitro 10-12-2019 02:23 AM

UPDATE:
 
UPDATE: R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……...6-1-4 W/ 3-2-13….…..1:30 AM

Nitro 10-12-2019 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2527140)
UPDATE: R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……...6-1-4 W/ 3-2-13….…..1:30 AM

3-6-1-2– Dutch Loss 11% Profit Margin - Passed / $19.20 Quinella & $269.80 Triple Bx ($1,344.80 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

Nitro 10-12-2019 02:54 AM

UPDATE:
 
UPDATE: R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)D……...2-5-4 W/ 11-8-12.………..2:00 AM

Nitro 10-12-2019 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2527145)
UPDATE: R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)D……...2-5-4 W/ 11-8-12.………..2:00 AM

5-12-2-3– Dutch Win 16% Profit Margin – Passed / $131.80 Quinella & $601.20 Triple Bx

Nitro 10-12-2019 03:24 AM

UPDATE:
 
UPDATE: R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….9-1-10 W/ 5-2-6 ….....2:30 AM

Nitro 10-12-2019 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2527149)
UPDATE: R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….9-1-10 W/ 5-2-6 ….....2:30 AM

7-9-12-6– Dutch Loss 48% Profit Margin- Passed / Some early action on the LS Winner

Nitro 10-12-2019 03:54 AM

UPDATE:
 
UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….1-9-4 W/ 13-14-6 …….3:00 AM

Nitro 10-12-2019 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2527152)
UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….1-9-4 W/ 13-14-6 …….3:00 AM

9-11-13-14– Dutch Win 29% Profit Margin- Passed / Some early action on the LS Placer #11

Nitro 10-12-2019 04:28 AM

UPDATE:
 
UPDATE: R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)D……..…8-2-3 W/ 1-7-10……...3:35 AM .


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