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-   -   Curlin "up against it" (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36100)

porchy44 04-30-2007 10:49 PM

Curlin "up against it"
 
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

The Judge 04-30-2007 10:59 PM

I Go With HISTORY
 
iI will take my loumps. Three races will not make it.

boomman 04-30-2007 11:24 PM

Curlin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by porchy44
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

porchy: I will take a stand against Curlin for all of the reasons you mentioned + I really think he beat NOTHING in the Arkansas Derby. If he wins as the 1st or 2nd choice in the Ky Derby I will gladly give him and his connections his "props", but I doubt I have much to worry about.....

Boomer

Indulto 04-30-2007 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porchy44
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

AK Derby horses have run well in the KY Derby in recent years. Smarty won, Alex was a close 3rd, and Steppenwolfer was a distant third, but close to the 2nd place finisher. I don't understand why some of the bigger names bypassed the $1 million purse, but Curlin has proven much better than his competition so far and the further he runs, the more impressively he wins.

Vanquished OP foes subsequently did well. Teufelsburg was in the photo at KEE and Flying First Class won at CD. Curlin will be in all my vertical slots on Derby day, but so will others.

JustRalph 05-01-2007 12:15 AM

this reminds me of the old coin flip theory. Invoking the law of averages.

I don't think any other year has any bearing on the current one.

If he is best among this group, it doesn't matter what the hell has happen since 1800

Edward DeVere 05-01-2007 01:01 AM

While I firmly believe that any one of 10 horses or so could win this year, I'm having a really hard time getting past the two favorites, Curlin and Street Sense.

JustRalph 05-01-2007 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward DeVere
While I firmly believe that any one of 10 horses or so could win this year, I'm having a really hard time getting past the two favorites, Curlin and Street Sense.

I like this workout for Street Sense on 4-5 at CD. Although I think the form has it listed as occurring on 4 april .......prior to the bluegrass. He just looked great here.


http://mfile.akamai.com/29874/wmv/ke...ChurchHill.asx

not sure it has any value, after the Bluegrass. But I don't think any horse in the Bluegrass got hurt too bad,,,,,,,,considering the pace.

OTM Al 05-01-2007 09:17 AM

Curlin is going to have to beat me because I will not use him. If he does, so be it, but I just don't have faith in him. Has yet to look any of the big ones in the eye. That said I'm still on the Hard Spun bandwagon, though he will be used in the top spots in only a limited way. I am a hypocrite.....

DanG 05-01-2007 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph
this reminds me of the old coin flip theory. Invoking the law of averages.
I don't think any other year has any bearing on the current one.

I agree with Ralph that each event is completely independent. Obviously the lined is becoming blurred concerning “historical” trends in most sports.

Having said that…

The proposition is (possibly) taking less than 5-1 and asking this of the animal…


  • Go from MSW / GR3 / GR2 / GR1 with no margin for error…
  • Go from 7f / 8.5f / 9f / 10f with no margin for error…
  • Go from fields of questionable depth to 19 of the best his generation has to offer…
  • Face the fastest pace of his life to date.
  • All of that and more in a span of roughly 100 days.
Positives...

  • Obvious raw talent.
  • Strong pedigree evident by his 7 figure sale after his dominate MSW win.
  • Facing a crop where no on has yet stamped themselves a dominate runner.
  • Running over his “home” track where Helen Pitts trained him for months prior to his GP debut.
Like most betting propositions there is a combination of positive / negative angles. However, unlike most day to day gambles this one involves the once in a lifetime circus surrounding this event not to mention the most important factor…Potentially a relatively small return from speculation.

boomman 05-01-2007 09:39 AM

Curlin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DanG
I agree with Ralph that each event is completely independent. Obviously the lined is becoming blurred concerning “historical” trends in most sports.

Having said that…

The proposition is (possibly) taking less than 5-1 and asking this of the animal…

  • Go from MSW / GR3 / GR2 / GR1 with no margin for error…
  • Go from 7f / 8.5f / 9f / 10f with no margin for error…
  • Go from fields of questionable depth to 19 of the best his generation has to offer…
  • Face the fastest pace of his life to date.
  • All of that and more in a span of roughly 100 days.
Positives...
  • Obvious raw talent.
  • Strong pedigree evident by his 7 figure sale after his dominate MSW win.
  • Facing a crop where no on has yet stamped themselves a dominate runner.
  • Running over his “home” track where Helen Pitts trained him for months prior to his GP debut.
Like most betting propositions there is a combination of positive / negative angles. However, unlike most day to day gambles this one involves the once in a lifetime circus surrounding this event not to mention the most important factor…Potentially a relatively small return from speculation.

Excellent post Dan: Those were some of the points I was trying to make. I never like using a horse that is being asked to do something for the first time at a short price. If the price is right so be it, but if not, as the saying goes: "I'm from Missouri, you're gonna have to show me" LOL:D

Boomer

DanG 05-01-2007 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boomman
I never like using a horse that is being asked to do something for the first time at a short price. If the price is right so be it, but if not, as the saying goes: "I'm from Missouri, you're gonna have to show me" LOL:D
Boomer

Boom,

From Missouri to NY, people can agree on that. It’s one of legendary Harvey Pack's oldest axioms…

Never bet a horse at a short price to do something it’s never done before”.

Of course Harvey also says…“There is nary a man alive who has paid a mortgage at 3/5” Rumor has it Dave Schwartz may not be paying his mortgage slamming 3/5, but I’ve heard he’s added at least added a nice addition. ;)

PS Boom: Sorry about your KC avatar getting traded. Dante Hall had a nice run for the Chiefs.

boomman 05-01-2007 11:00 AM

Dante Hall
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DanG
Boom,

From Missouri to NY, people can agree on that. It’s one of legendary Harvey Pack's oldest axioms…

Never bet a horse at a short price to do something it’s never done before”.

Of course Harvey also says…“There is nary a man alive who has paid a mortgage at 3/5” Rumor has it Dave Schwartz may not be paying his mortgage slamming 3/5, but I’ve heard he’s added at least added a nice addition. ;)

PS Boom: Sorry about your KC avatar getting traded. Dante Hall had a nice run for the Chiefs.

Thanks Dan! I'm going to miss him for sure, as it was a joy to watch him. He had sort of worn out his welcome with his brooding last year though, as notice they let him go only for a 5th round choice. Imagine what he was worth a few years before! Boomer

Bruddah 05-01-2007 11:03 AM

DanG's post is an excellent, and well thought out
 
I agree with everything he has written, but there is this knawing viualization of Curlin winning the Ky. Dby., which is haunting me.

Last years Derby winner (Barbaro) was the first winner, with Raise A Native (RAN) breeding on the Dam's sire line. This Jinx was broken with a sampling of more than 60+ starters dating back to 1987. When others speak of a Derby Jinx, I have to ask how many starters have tried it, not how many years. I believe the Jinx about Ky Dby starters, with no 2 year old foundation, is more myth than fact. Primarily because, no one can offer up the number of starters having tried, especially in modern days. My thought is the sampling would be very small, while the total number of years might be high.

Curlin is definitely capable of winning the roses and being the best of his generation. If he doesn't win, it won't be because of a mythical Derby jinx. Especially one with no facts regarding the number of starters having tried. It will be because (A) he wasn't good enough, (B) bad post position (C) poor racing luck. Good Luck to all Saturday :ThmbUp:

boomman 05-01-2007 11:14 AM

More curlin notes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bruddah
I agree with everything he has written, but there is this knawing viualization of Curlin winning the Ky. Dby., which is haunting me.

Last years Derby winner (Barbaro) was the first winner, with Raise A Native (RAN) breeding on the Dam's sire line. This Jinx was broken with a sampling of more than 60+ starters dating back to 1987. When others speak of a Derby Jinx, I have to ask how many starters have tried it, not how many years. I believe the Jinx about Ky Dby starters, with no 2 year old foundation, is more myth than fact. Primarily because, no one can offer up the number of starters having tried, especially in modern days. My thought is the sampling would be very small, while the total number of years moght be high.

Curlin is definitely capable of winning the roses and being the best of his generation. If he doesn't win, it won't be because of a mythical Derby jinx. Especially one with no facts regarding the number of starters having tried. It will be because (A) he wasn't good enough, (B) bad post position (C) poor racing luck. Good Luck to all Saturday :ThmbUp:

Bruddah: I agree that Curlin certainly could win and I've never been one to draw many conclusions from the unraced angle, dosage, etc. However, having said that (and one poster on here pointed out that many solid Ky Derby horses have come from The Ark Derby and I totally agree with that, having backed Smarty Jones in a BIG way a few years ago) I just really think The Ark Derby this year was one of the weakest fields they have had in many years . If you look at the entire Oaklawn meet, it was possibly the worst of their storied history: short fields, offtrack handle down 30% etc. So using your multiple choice method above let me choose (A)....I also would like to wish everyone a great Derby and success at the "windows"!

Boomer

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 02:11 PM

I like what I am hearing :jump:
Most folks throwing out the potential winner due to racing lore that are falling apart after the turn of the century.
Calling the fields Curlin faced weak based on his easy wins (I know they were not "strong" fields but neither were the other preps)
Most said the same of Smarty and Alex - Grindstone was hardly even mentioned Derby week...

With all the negatives I hear on Curlin it is doubtful he will go off as the favorite and we will more than likely see good exotic prices when he is presented the roses :ThmbUp:

Has not been ran to death like Puplit was - in fact has not even broke a sweat while trouncing opponents that would have been highly praised if they would have won the same races.

I do understand how hard the derby is to win and the best horse does not always get it done but it would take real idiot to throw Curlin out of the exotics :rolleyes:

But PLEASE continue to talk about what a slouch of a horse he is so I can win decent $$$ :cool:

ps...AK = Alaska - AR = Arkansas
but you don't have to believe that fact either ;)


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