Handicap This Race
 

Handicap this race at the dreaded Parx on 10/24/17. I picked it because of a full field and several class droppers and some potential Long Shots. I will probably only make my picks live close to post time on the selections thread.

Race 10-1 M 70 Yds-Clm 7500n2L; 3Yo&Up.

:1: December Red 12-1 ML. Had this horse on a watch list since 9/5 when it won at $59 in Mc10K. That day he was 20-1 ML, should have been 30-1 and at first flash he was 8-1. Noted it but didn’t pull the trigger looking at his abysmal form. Came back at 10K-n2L and finished a grudging 3rd. Gets drop today, with two good improving races. His FP(fulcr. pace) would be 113.1 in l.r. (112.2-2lr)
:2: Mr McFrosty 5-1 ML. Drops from 16K at Bel and Bris says drop looks suspicious. LR he put up a 112.2, but finished 7 bl’s from winner, that number looks aberrant in his pp’s.. Back in May, he showed a 114.2, again at Bel in a one turn mile. Prime pwr #2.
:3: Bubba Chub 10-1 ML. -Having a hard time keeping this one in. Fin. 3rd two races ago at 5000 clm. FPace is 114.2 from back in July. Look elsewhere.
:4: Open Bar 15-1 ML. Last raced at Sar for 16000 in Aug. 54 days off with only two workouts. Has been ITM 5/10 races all in sprints.
:5: Lightning Flash 20-1 ML. 2nd last race he showed improved form at same level same distance finished 2nd. Then his trainer ships him to run a mile on the turf where he’s eased. Back today at level where he fin. 2nd. Was that race a workout, and back today for 7500? FP is 113.4 and 113.0 at Med. Along with the 1, he’s one of my possible long shots.

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 ML. He’s Bris Prime Pwr #1. Last time he ran a pace race at 114.3 and faded to 4th at this level at 1-1/16. Two races back at 25000 he ran 112.1 pace and fin. 3rd. Last race looks like he’s declining, but I have his last fraction as tied for one of the best with the #9.

:7: Unpredictable 5/2 ML. Lightly raced horse(⅕) and prime pwr. #3. L R he looked dismal in the mud at 6f. Third race back at this dist.-he was third with a 113.1 pace in MC30K. Doesn’t look to me like he’ll be the favorite.

:8: Curly Pal 6-1 ML. He ran a good 2nd last race at 1-1/16, same level. He shows a whopping +23 increase is his SR over 2nd lr. Also a big increase in E2 pace ratings. I have his pace at 114.4-114.2. Last fraction looks to be on the slower group. At 1/42, his best level looks to one level down from this one.

:9: Albie 15-1 ML Last race pace at 116.0 at 6250Clm and next avail at 114.4. With that slow pace, he managed to put up one of the fastest last fraction times with the #6.

:10: West Shore Drive 20-1 ML. Form looks abymal in last 3 races of which two are at this level and routes. One of the Sartin or Bradshaw rules I’ve seen on another site was don’t even bother to look at 20-1 ML’s. Here’s one I may agree with on this horse.

:11: Sambook 15-1 ML. Last race was in Aug at Mth for 5000 sprint. For his pace times, I get a 114.0 and 113.4 in routes. His late speed looks to be one of the slowest.

Parx Race 10:



:1: December Red 12-1 Has gone a little to fast in last 2. 1'st time in the mud and could take this field a long way on the front. Contender.

:2: Mr McFrosty 5-1 Mixed feelings here, If the horse improved in last, why the drop? The only reason is an easy spot. Got to use and has to be 4-1+.

:3: Bubba Chub 10-1 Not much to say here, toss.

:4: Open Bar 15-1 Drop in class and improving speed figures, trainer and jockey are solid here. Solid mud breeding, my pick.

:5: Lightning Flash 20-1 Do not see it, all numbers get beat here.

:6: My Uncle Al 4-1 probably the fav, but declining late pace #'s say be careful.

:7: Unpredictable 5/2 Even with Penningon on, looks like the trainer is saying "no way" with the quick drop.

:8: Curly Pal 6-1 Last race looks good, but it seems every time he runs good, the next one is bad. would need at least 30-1 to play this one.

:9: Albie 15-1 Likes to run 2nd, and like the :8:, can't string two together. Out.

:10: West Shore Drive 20-1 Does have a win in the mud and a third, the odds tell the story here, last 3 between 38 and 60-1 at this level. Toss.

:11: Sambook 15-1 Gets back to the track and with the jockey he seems to run for. Good mud breeding, could be there for a price. Contender.

My pick to win would be the :2: the pedigree and trainer are big pluses for me. Hope he can sit off the pace setting :1: to his inside and have enough in the tank down the stretch to pull this off.

Another horse I like at a price is the :9: although I think his post time odds will be about half of his morning line 15-1.

As Jay mentioned I would need to get ML 5-1 on the :2: to feel confident about placing a wager.

:7: SCR

might as well swing for the fences -> :11: wps.

Ken

agree on the :4: but also the :6:

Do you calculate the last fractions manually...or do you use already-made pace figures? In either case...there is no way that the last fraction in the last race of the :6: could be considered as one of the best in the race. That last fraction was abysmal.

Thask, actually maybe I mispoke, I look for best two where horse was competitive. If I said last race, then that wasn't correct, will check later, as I'm middle of bike project with grand kids. To your question, I calculate my own fractions and make some adjustments of my own design. And from one of your earlier suggestions, I look at Bris pace numbers to see if it's relative to other paces.

The :6: has the look of a declining horse...and it won't be helped by the pace-pressure that the :1: and the :11: are sure to apply. Consequently...I want no part of the :6: at the short odds that it's sure to go off.

The :1: will make the lead here, but it will be a contested lead...and the horse has given up sizable leads in the past. I don't trust this horse in the lane, even though it has the look of an improving sort. IMO, the horse needs a race with less early speed in order to shine...and that's not the case here.

There is a lot to like about the :2:, given the circumstances. Class drop, ships in from Belmont, third off a layoff, and it looks to be improving. Bris may say that the drop in class is a negative...but I disagree. The horse hasn't been close at the wire in its recent starts...and it obviously doesn't belong at the $16,000 level. It broke its maiden in a maiden-claimer with an $18,400 purse...and it races for about $19,000 today. It makes sense to me...and I consider this horse a main contender.

The :4: intrigues me...but the distance concerns and the layoff combine to dissuade me from accepting it as a legitimate win-candidate.

From the rest of the horses, only the :9: causes me to raise an eyebrow...because it shows consistent closing fractions in a race where such a tactic may prove beneficial. The horse is on the cheap side as far as "class" is concerned...but it won the only time it raced at Parx.

Not sure if the closing odds will warrant a bet...but the :2: looks best to me in this race.

:9:

:4:

:6:

I also said the :6: has the look of a declining race horse in my original post. And back to your question, I had his late pace in his 2lr as very good, whether looking at fractions or Bris no's. My method is not to look at last race only, but try to keep it somewhat current, as last 4 or 5.
My picks are :4: :2: :1:

As they said in "LET IT RIDE",not in this lifetime. :D:D:D

According to my pace figures...even the second-race-back of the :6: has an unimpressive late-pace rating, especially when compared to the late-pace figure of the :9:

:2::4::6: all short. would pass but will select :4::6:

Win Bets: :1: :11:
Exacta Bets: Box :1::4::11:
Exacta : Box :1::4::11: / :1::2::4::6::11:
Tri::1::11: / :4: / :1::2::6::11:
Tri::4: / :1::11: / :1::2::6::11:
Tri::1::4::11: / :2::6: / :1::2::4::6::11: