THE TRAVERS EXACTA ANALYSIS
 

I OFFER THIS FOR A "PEER REVIEW"
OPEN FOR COMMENTS.

From the Travers Field Set thread yesterday, post #49...
And now we are supposed to be amazed at your redboard exacta matrix nonsense? I'll pass on downloading the .doc file, thanks. :rolleyes:

But wait!
There's more/

There's always more...but ultimately always less. Like 'Subtraction Stew' (dating myself here).

" What does Redboard mean in horse racing?
Top definition. redboard. Boasting about a winning wager after the contest has been completed, but never speaking about the wager before the race was run. Withholding of good information before a horse race then boasting about the winner after the race is over and the bet is safely cashed."

NOPE. NOT REDBOARDING. YOU ARE AWARE THAT I CAME OFF THE EXACTA AND DETERMINED A WIN BET WAS CALLED FOR, AND IT LOST AS YOU POINTED OUT.
I'M NOT CLAIMING A WIN HERE, I POSTED MY "OFF THE EXACTA PLAY" BEFORE THE RACE, AND NEVER CLAIMED TO CASH A BET.

WHAT THE FILE CONTAINS IS AN ANALYSIS OF THE FINAL BOARD WRT THE EXACTA PLAY.
IT'S NOT NECESSARY THAT IT BE THE FINAL BOARD, I COULD HAVE USED MY POSTED EXACTA PLAY.
ITS THE DEPTH OF THE ANALYSIS THAT IS IMPORTANT HERE.
I'M LOOKING FOR CONSTRUCTIVE COMMENTS.

Your result make no sense, and your calculation is flawed.

who cares

Well , I'll offer this. The backup for my exacta calculation is on my web page. You can google dick Mitchell's . The results are the same. His is much simpler than mine. His uses what he establishes as the true win odds. Mine calculates required min. exacta payout, using the booking percentages for the win and exacta pools.Beyound that I dont know what you are referring to.

i'll stand corrected.
here is the revised exacta fair value.
i did not apply the win pool take out properly in the previous calculations.
exacta was still an overlay, considerably smaller

The other sheet, green background, is correct since it uses the fair exacta board, using fair win pool %'s

I mean...
Respectfully, after 41,000 posts if you're still making this simple error one's gotta wonder...

BTW, Is Orange the new Gray?

Got me curious, had to google that to find out that's a reference to "The Phantom Tollbooth". I got that book in grade school in about 1972 or so as part of the Weekly Reader/Scholastic Readers program. I can't remember anything about the book except I didn't like it. But now I see there's a sequel out, and I might need to read it again to see what's what.

As for the more/less philosophy on exacta analysis, I'll have to "stew" on that a bit....:jump:

I do make mistakes.I'm often very good at correcting them and respect those that take the time to point them out.

The grey formula is still the same but I prefer the orange and green background colors.

And no one else, so why not just post this stuff on your own site. I cannot see how this is beneficial to anyone else. Your self-aggrandizing is a bit much.

You should not bother with this thread, crusty old guy
. I give you my dispensation to leave.