Um, Hillary could not be beaten also. Stats are something to be used but eventually the Storm Cat curse will be stopped. Look at the Cubs!!!!

So true!! Very well said jocko699. :)

He's also out of Johannesburg and Ghostzapper who was a beast in his day...

One day I may tell you the story of my buddy sitting with Reddam in the owner's box at the BC with Johannesburg.:headbanger:

I would love to hear it sometime jocko.... :) I miss OKC brother. I haven't lived there in nearly 20 years.

I don't disagree. I merely pointed out two statistics that make this horse a poor choice for current favoritism. This is not a silly statement as your other post stated. If you bet on the Cubs for 100 years in a row or Storm Cat sons in the Derby every year then you lost a lot of money. Storm Cats are 0-51 yet comprise 13% of the starters. By random chance alone, they should have won several already. Next, does he get Smith for the Derby or does Smith stick with McKinzie. That unknown is a minor ding. He has ZERO points. He has one shot to make the gate. If he gets sick or tweaks a muscle he's toast. He has not raced longer than a mile. Will his speed hold an extra panel and eventually two? A lot of bad history and unknowns. Yes, he looked real sharp today against a short field but I have seen so many horses run 8F and 8.5F burners only to fizzle in the Derby. What makes this one any different?

One thing I do like is he from female family 1. This family has been the best performing in the Derby in recent decades. I'd like to think dosage is still worth something and he checks in at a respectable 3.00.

Only if I can tag along! :)

Negative nightrider, the pattern is full:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

Justify will get a TimeformUS Speed Figure of around 125 for today's win. For comparisons sake, McKinzie ran 124 yesterday and Bolt d'Oro ran a 123.

Saddened to confirm that Mourinho was critically injured while training earlier this morning @santaanitapark and was euthanized. Sympathies to the @PhoenixThoroug1 Team & Baffert barn..

that sucks. Sorry to hear that.

Funniest line I've seen so far about trying to beat Justify after watching yesterdays race, "We are going to need a bigger boat". :lol:

Sometimes I like to take a shot against horses that put up big figures in softer fields when they finally get tested, but this one looks like he's a good candidate to fire a new top when he's finally asked to run.

horrible news, I was looking forward to his next race.

What terrible, terrible news. RIP Mourinho.

Going into the race yesterday on the "slower" number I gave Justify in his 1st race , I had him 6 lengths better than the 2nd placer and 9 better than the 4th placer and thats basically how they finished.

I was one of the ones looking forward to bet against him but yesterday was NOT the day and I am still looking forward to against a decent field.

it helps if you say that before the race!!!!

Very true but the 2nd & 3rd placers were adding blinkers and the track was sloppy so while the 6 lengths was too much for ME to bet against I certainly wouldn't talk andybody out of betting against in those circumstances when the 2nd choice was 14-1!

MSmith will stay here.

great, it could be Talkin Man versus Thunder Gulch all over again

picking the talented lightly raced horses versus the proven winner. Look forward to that again, lol.

Talkin Man was a champion 2yo in Canada and participated in the BC Juvenile after starting his career in July. Thunder Gulch didn't start his 2yo campaign til September. Talkin Man had more career wins (won 5 of his last 6) leading up to the Derby, too.

In addition, Smith got off both Thunder Gulch and Talkin Man the race before the Derby (the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, respectively). He opted to keep the mount on 4yo BC Classic winner Concern, which he picked up from Jerry Bailey, for the Oaklawn Handicap. In that race Concern futilely chased the budding superhorse Cigar, who was of course ridden by Jerry Bailey.

Interesting, I only remember Thunder Gulch running in many preps that winter spring versus Talkin Man but it was a long long time ago.

Thunder Gulch did win the Remsen which probably trumped anything Talkin Man did at 2. I can't remember if Lukas trained him at 2 but I feel like he didn't.

Thunder Gulch did a lot of late season 2yo work after switching from John Kimmel to Wayne Lukas after Coolmore partner Michael Tabor bought him. He won the Remsen like you said and then ran second behind the streaking Afternoon Deelites (the West Coast answer to Talkin Man really).

Talkin Man did nearly all his 2yo work in Canada, winning 3 stakes by daylight. In that respect, he was a bit dressed up. In fact, he was exposed badly in the BC Juvenile, showing speed and getting buried in the stretch, not only by several horses that ended up in the Derby (Timber Country, Eltish, Tejano Run) but also at the home of the Derby...i.e., Churchill Downs...and also under Mike Smith.

Why anyone would think his blowout wins at Aqueduct (Gotham and Wood)--at the time a poor source of classic prospects--somehow invalidated the BC effort, never mind made him deserved of favortism in the Derby, is anyone's guess.

Thunder Gulch ran in 3 preps vs. Talkin Man's 2, but Thunder Gulch also ran in several late season 2yo races (Nashua, Remsen, Hollywood Futurity) so he had a lot more recency than the latter. In fact, Thunder Gulch would proved to be overraced the remainder of his career, competing in all 3 Classics, then shipping back west for the Swaps only a few weeks later. He won the Travers, then tried to squeeze in 2 more starts before the BC in the Kentucky Cup Classic and then the Jockey Club Gold Cup only 2 weeks later. Broke a leg in the latter chasing Cigar.

Talkin Man also tanked in the Preakness and supposedly bled badly in that race. The hype didn't let up much despite being exposed in the BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby as he went off as second choice at 3-1 (Thunder Gulch was 7-2) in the Preakness. He never ran again.

I'm going to guess you confused Talkin Man with Alydeed, who was also a Canadian colt owned by Kinghaven Farm and trained by Roger Attfield. A couple years before Talkin Man, Alydeed won the Derby Trial by open lengths in just his 4th career start and then nearly stole the Preakness, just getting rundown in the stretch late by the ill-fated Prairie Bayou (who was ridden by Mike Smith).

Yea maybe, what you say about Thunder Gulch is maybe consistent with what into the decision.

Just going off memory (so correct me if I'm wrong), I thought Thunder Gulch got smoked by Wild Syn in one of the Florida prep races?

It was the Blue Grass. The race was billed as a rematch between Thunder Gulch and Suave Prospect who dueled together in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby (Thunder Gulch won both photos). Instead, Wild Syn was allowed to walk on the lead in an era when Keeneland was considering a conveyor belt for speed horses while the jockeys on the two favorites (Pat Day and Julie Krone) waited on one another to make the first move.

I'm not sure why that made Thunder Gulch a toss in the Derby, going off at nearly 30-1, but I suppose he simply got overlooked in the big field, especially with the recent defeat, the musical jockeys (Gary Stevens was his 3rd rider in as many starts), and the fact that trainer Wayne Lukas had two other top prospects in champion juvenile Timber Country and iron filly Serena's Song.

Thank-you for that.

Thanks for another bad memory. I recall yelling profanities at Patient Pat at a local OTB while flinging losing tickets in the air. I ate a lot of crackers for the next 2 weeks.

RR

A little color on Thunder Gulch story, he was completely washed out before the Bluegrass, I am not sure if it was a reaction to the big crowd, or in those days Lukas was doing some interesting things too. Three weeks later he won the Derby at a huge price, and he looked the part!

WOW! No matter what number you gave him in his 1st race he ran better than that number today!

Today was my 1st and last time betting against him. My only concern is if he comes out of the race ok.

Yeah, that is something special. But I will bet against at right price.

Amazing horse though, the 3 is quite a horse and had no chance.

Loose on the lead at Santa Anita going 1:12 and change, there was no way anyone would catch him. Now he gets to travel, face a real field of horses with a big bullseye on his back. That's a lot to overcome for a favorite and makes him a strong bet against.

Add that Bolt d'Oro grabbed a quarter and a mile and a quarter is probably too long for him, I don't see the winner coming from California this year.

OOOPS!!

The first chink in the armor is exposed.

I'll never forget the final 5/16ths that American Pharoah ran in the slop in Arkansas which totally gave it away that he wouldn't have any problem with the classic distances. Sorry folks. We didn't see that from this one at Santa Anita. There was absolutely zip impressive about his final 3/8ths.

Somebody a number of pages back questioned his distance limitations (maybe Spaulding?). I think he was on to something. Have to agree with the post directly above me.

Typically to win the Derby a horse has to have Beyer figs of 100+. Among this year's 3 year olds, that is a very short list. He's had 3 starts running a 101, then a 104 and yesterday's race which is probably going to be a 105-108. I'm not seeing anyone around to match those figs.
After 3 starts he has won about a million & a quarter. Not bad for a colt with allowance conditions left. Going into the gate he was a little washy and Smith said he became a bit distracted at some point. Considering those two things, even more improvement may be on the horizon.
Re his being loose on the lead, if you look at the chart, Bolt actually was 1st at the break but didn't hold the lead for long. When Castellano made his move, it was described as urging, but it really looked as though he was working his horse hard, while Smith was sitting chilly the entire race.
I don't bet CD, so I don't have a Derby pick, but if I did, at this point I'm not seeing anyone else. :)

Hard to figure seeing how that race was run, I don't see the Derby being one pace like that, this horse could be anything from a star to a disappointment.

I do know one thing. Confucius says, when someone says they don't see anyone else...........look at everyone else. I'll have someone i like but only a fool sits on one horse in this cattle call.

I can't quite say what I was expecting but whatever it was I didn't see it.
He did run a sub 38 but as the derby favorite I don't know.

There are many people who are totally impressed by what they have seen so far but I am not one who would take 3-1 in the futures on this horse. You will get that price come derby day if you still want it but what if he draws a post like #20. I can see there is going to be an ample amount of early paced horses if all the top point earners go. Horses like Flameaway, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Runaway Ghost. He may just prove to be the next big thing but I will wait till the first Saturday in May to make any decision but maybe getting bit in the butt, I am one who will not use him on top. I will however congratulate those who do if they should win.

Totally agree with and enjoyed your post. :) Have a wonderful weekend.

It appears that you have to be a number maker of some kind to appreciate the effort yesterday. His last 2 races he was beating the equivalent of claimers versus running against a proven grade 1 horse yesterday. People fawned all over him when beating NOTHING and the same people weren't impressed yesterday, LOL

I can say that the SA Derby number was SO EASY to make that I didn't even need for the Oaks to run to verify anything. I had the race equivalent to 133-135 on the Timeform scale and they gave it a 132.

One interesting thing is the Beyer. Doug Salvatore posted on twitter this morning that in the Oaks all 9 horses were given lower beyers than their previous. He thought it should have been 5 points higher and the 107 number given to Justify is 5 points less than the "usual" Timefore to Beyer equivalent. Did they "adjust" the Oaks down so they wouldn't have to give Justify the 112?