Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/index.php)
-   General Racing Discussion (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   2020 KY Derby action less than half of prior years (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=160260)

dilanesp 09-06-2020 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster (Post 2649965)

I still canít believe they couldnít fill a 20 horse field with a handful of dreamers looking to try to sneak into the money

Two things:

1. One reason idiots enter their no chance horses is because the Derby is a big party for the owners. Not thus year.

2. Later in the year, we are a lot more sure of horses' form. In May, they are still telling themselves their horses might be good enough.

Afleet 09-07-2020 04:44 PM

wonder if the stock takes a hit on Tuesday?

Marketwatch shows:

dated: Sep 4, 2020 7:32 p.m. EDT
Delayed quote
$178.00
+4.92 2.84% after hours

Might have to buy a few shares if it drops in the $160s

AskinHaskin 09-07-2020 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster (Post 2649965)

I still canít believe they couldnít fill a 20 horse field with a handful of dreamers looking to try to sneak into the money


Uh, the dream usually had by most of those ended 2 1/2 months ago.

NTamm1215 09-07-2020 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2649835)
Saratoga, as I said at the time, was a NYRA blunder. They spent all that money moving everyone up there to accomplish... nothing they couldn't have accomplished at Belmont.

You are ballsy maintaining this completely inaccurate stance. You REALLY think they were handling $700 million over the last 40 racing days at Belmont. There is no chance whatsoever.

GMB@BP 09-07-2020 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 2650376)
You are ballsy maintaining this completely inaccurate stance. You REALLY think they were handling $700 million over the last 40 racing days at Belmont. There is no chance whatsoever.

agree, they would have handled less no doubt, especially considering the quality of the fields compared to normal saratoga.

Probably would not have broke 500 million.

dilanesp 09-07-2020 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 2650376)
You are ballsy maintaining this completely inaccurate stance. You REALLY think they were handling $700 million over the last 40 racing days at Belmont. There is no chance whatsoever.

You are being grossly misleading. So they handle $500 million instead (I don't buy that, because bettors bet the race, not brand names, but let's say you are right). What is NYRA's PROFIT MARGIN on that 200 million? Not takeout. Profit margin. 2 percent? 1 percent? Negative? (Could be, given the cost of all the virus protocols.)

Now how much did it cost all those horsemen to move up? Yes, NYRA didn't pay that cost, but its constituents did.

No fricking way did this turn out to be cost justified. In the actual bowels of NYRA management, I am sure they know this. They were hoping they could browbeat Cuomo to let them sell tickets.

westernmassbob 09-07-2020 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2649787)
i saw races at Will Rodgers and Fonner Park handle $10 million on a tuesday afternoon this year when the government was handing out unemployment and stimulus checks.

no one has had a check now in over a month.


Those numbers were severely inflated due to the fact that most tracks were closed at the time. Also horse racing was the only sport to bet on. A major miss at all these tracks ( especially Saratoga) was my idea I mentioned a while back on here.....drive thru wagering. It became a reality this past week at Plainridge In Massachusetts. Saratoga missed out on a lot of dead money this year and the drive thru betting would have made up for a portion of that. My understanding is that nobody thought of it until it was too late to make a plan.

o_crunk 09-07-2020 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 2650376)
You are ballsy maintaining this completely inaccurate stance. You REALLY think they were handling $700 million over the last 40 racing days at Belmont. There is no chance whatsoever.

It's closer than many informed people would think. BEL handled $1.55M per race this spring. SAR handled $1.71M. BEL handled almost $400M over just 25 days this Spring. It's not outlandish to think that if they stayed down at BEL, field size would have improved. Some of the claimers that went to MTH and other mid-Atlantic tracks stayed home at BEL and raced there instead of skipping SAR completely - which they did. Given the same stakes program as upstate, it's not impossible.

Still, $700M is a good number for SAR this year. Yes, they had an extra 2 days this year and they sandbagged a bunch of races onto the last weekend to make it happen *BUT* they did themselves no favors when they carded horrible betting races in the last half of the meet, which lead to some of the smallest handled cards at SAR in a decade.

There's this old world thinking that people bet more because it's Saratoga. When there's nobody in the grandstand that simply does not matter. Saratoga's market share declined this summer on the pure numbers. Belmont's certainly did not. What this means is that putting bettable races in front of customers is more important than ever. If you don't do that, they don't bet. Today's closing card was the only card all meet with 100+ betting interests and the bettors rewarded them with the highest handled card in the last 3 weeks and the highest handled non-Saturday card ever.

This data has been plain as day for 5 months of covid. Bad cards handle less than before. Good cards handle more than before. Where they take place does not matter.

classhandicapper 09-07-2020 09:41 PM

As I've said, there are too many moving parts right now to say almost anything with certainty.

1. We have significant unemployment

2. Many tracks were closed, then slowly reopened.

3. There were no other sports/casinos to gamble on for awhile, then they slowly reopened.

4. There's no live attendance at most tracks

5. There was pent up demand when racing returned that slowly diminished as bankrolls were used up

6. The one time stimulus checks put extra money in the hands of gamblers temporarily

No one can control for all those offsetting negatives, positives, and moving parts.

There are a few things we know for certain from the data that O'Crunk has been posting and from the math of the handle.

1. Fewer tracks being opened at the same time lead to significantly increased handle for the ones that were opened first.

2. As more tracks opened, money started shifting towards higher quality, better racing, and larger fields

3. The more your overall handle and profit margin is dependent on fans being at the track, the harder you were hit by not having fans both in terms of volume of betting and profit margin on bets at other ADWs.

4. Related to #2, IMO you can't compare handle at AQU, BEL, and SAR even if you control for field size and other factors because the quality of the racing at the 3 tracks is completely different. The "brand value" of each is in part related to the quality of the racing that's typical at that track (Grade 1 stakes, mid week stakes, super stakes cards, turf racing vs, cheap maidens, cheap NW2L claimers, bad statebreds etc..). If you shifted the quality of any of them up or down the handle would change to some extent right away and then more so over time.

At this point we should just be happy racing is back and Saratoga had good weather for its turf racing compared to many other years.

the little guy 09-14-2020 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 2650376)
You are ballsy maintaining this completely inaccurate stance. You REALLY think they were handling $700 million over the last 40 racing days at Belmont. There is no chance whatsoever.

Why bother? You're responding to someone who was as wrong as anyone could possibly be, for months, about literally everything, yet has the nerve to come here and wave a victory flag, when any even reasonable person would admit he was wrong, and move on. It's actually sad.

Forget about the fact that the Saratoga meet would likely have been held at Aqueduct, or at least the majority of it, in order to run the needed turf races, for us to still be at Belmont for the upcoming six weeks. So while Belmont would have handled a fraction of what Saratoga did, Aqueduct would have handled even less....but you know all this.

Only someone with a ridiculous agenda would ignore how much more attention was paid to Saratoga Live than the shows at Belmont and not realize this goes hand in hand with the higher handle numbers.

But forget about all that, and so many other things not even worth bringing up ( I'll keep this under the length of the average post from one of the defeated ), an important factor that nobody has mentioned is that this year's Saratoga meet confirmed NYRA's commitment to the city of Saratoga, and the surrounding areas. Had we not run, the storyline right now would be "Will they even be back in 2021?" It's not even a question, and the simple fact is that no matter what they think or say, the naysayers around here have absolutely no idea the importance of Saratoga to the State of NY. Fortunately, NYRA does

dilanesp 09-15-2020 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy (Post 2652659)
Why bother? You're responding to someone who was as wrong as anyone could possibly be, for months, about literally everything, yet has the nerve to come here and wave a victory flag, when any even reasonable person would admit he was wrong, and move on. It's actually sad.

Forget about the fact that the Saratoga meet would likely have been held at Aqueduct, or at least the majority of it, in order to run the needed turf races, for us to still be at Belmont for the upcoming six weeks. So while Belmont would have handled a fraction of what Saratoga did, Aqueduct would have handled even less....but you know all this.

Only someone with a ridiculous agenda would ignore how much more attention was paid to Saratoga Live than the shows at Belmont and not realize this goes hand in hand with the higher handle numbers.

But forget about all that, and so many other things not even worth bringing up ( I'll keep this under the length of the average post from one of the defeated ), an important factor that nobody has mentioned is that this year's Saratoga meet confirmed NYRA's commitment to the city of Saratoga, and the surrounding areas. Had we not run, the storyline right now would be "Will they even be back in 2021?" It's not even a question, and the simple fact is that no matter what they think or say, the naysayers around here have absolutely no idea the importance of Saratoga to the State of NY. Fortunately, NYRA does

Come on Andy. You have no idea how "Saratoga at Aqueduct" would have played. It might have been just fine

Meanwhile your employer acted in a completely scummy fashion for all the horsemen you guys forced to move up to upstate New York in the middle of a pandemic. If NYRA really made so much money, how about NYRA pays for those expenses?

NYRA is a cancer.

dilanesp 09-15-2020 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by o_crunk (Post 2650418)
It's closer than many informed people would think. BEL handled $1.55M per race this spring. SAR handled $1.71M. BEL handled almost $400M over just 25 days this Spring. It's not outlandish to think that if they stayed down at BEL, field size would have improved. Some of the claimers that went to MTH and other mid-Atlantic tracks stayed home at BEL and raced there instead of skipping SAR completely - which they did. Given the same stakes program as upstate, it's not impossible.

Still, $700M is a good number for SAR this year. Yes, they had an extra 2 days this year and they sandbagged a bunch of races onto the last weekend to make it happen *BUT* they did themselves no favors when they carded horrible betting races in the last half of the meet, which lead to some of the smallest handled cards at SAR in a decade.

There's this old world thinking that people bet more because it's Saratoga. When there's nobody in the grandstand that simply does not matter. Saratoga's market share declined this summer on the pure numbers. Belmont's certainly did not. What this means is that putting bettable races in front of customers is more important than ever. If you don't do that, they don't bet. Today's closing card was the only card all meet with 100+ betting interests and the bettors rewarded them with the highest handled card in the last 3 weeks and the highest handled non-Saturday card ever.

This data has been plain as day for 5 months of covid. Bad cards handle less than before. Good cards handle more than before. Where they take place does not matter.

This post is obviously correct.

iamt 09-15-2020 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2652682)
Come on Andy. You have no idea how "Saratoga at Aqueduct" would have played. It might have been just fine

Meanwhile your employer acted in a completely scummy fashion for all the horsemen you guys forced to move up to upstate New York in the middle of a pandemic. If NYRA really made so much money, how about NYRA pays for those expenses?

NYRA is a cancer.


And you don't have any idea about how it woudl have gone either, though I'm sure if it was a disaster you'd be on here pointing out how they should have done something different.

PaceAdvantage 09-15-2020 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2652682)
NYRA is a cancer.

Wow bro...this is about as short a concession speech as we've ever seen. Thanks.

westernmassbob 09-15-2020 08:59 AM

Iím glad that NYRA chose to move itís tact from Belmont and have the meet in Saratoga. There were a lot of people that said it wasnít going to happen and I can understand why. I donít agree with them but I understand and accept their opinions. With that said NYRA being in town made very little impact to the tourism revenue that is projected to be down 65% for the summer season. Obviously fans not being allowed in was the difference as well as other major attractions being closed due to covid. So that typical infusion of 250 million into the capital region during the racing meet never came. I still say some track revenue could have been salvaged if my drive thru wagering idea came to fruition. There could have been a drive thru tour of the track included with that as well but I guess there was never enough time to plan any of this.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:55 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
preferred pick 5 type
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:55 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.