Wood Memorial
 

1 1/18 Miles | 100 Derby points | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000
Saturday April 6, 2013

:1: Chrisandthecapper
:2: Normandy Invasion
:3: Quinzieme Monarque
:4: Elnaawi
:5: Vyjack
:6: Mr Palmer
:7: Always in a Tiz
:8: Verrazano
:9: Go Get the Basil
:10: Freedom Child


PPs here
https://www.tlore.net/trainers/pletc...m?page=brisnet

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Day before the race and no discussion of the Wood? Is there another thread that I'm missing?

I've liked both Verrazano and Vyjack in their previous starts; Verrazano looks like he might be a good horse, but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself with a horse that only has 3 starts and 1 stakes race under his belt.

This board lit up with some great analysis (from people who know this game a hell of better than I do) before the other prep races - why so quiet on this one?

everyone is busy playing the rainbox 6 at GP :lol:

Verrazano obviously towers over the field and looks tough to beat.
As a longshot play, I'm thinking of using Elnaawi.
If he gets a better trip, he could be right there.
Second time lasix and is coming into this with a best of 68 bullet work.

I like Mr. Palmer. I think the light came on for him.

I would not be at all surprised to see Elnaawi finish ahead of Vyjack. REVERSE ORDER is one of the Five Fundamental Forces.

Normandy Invasion

:2:
:4::5::7::8:

Don't have the data file yet, so I can't give an opinion of the Wood yet. Will run the data through my program as soon as I get it.

:2: :5: :10: ex bx

# 9 Doesn't "Go get the Basil" have a very high speed figure last out and top Aqueduct Jock to be 30/1 morning Line ?

Not sure you'll find value here, unless you think very highly of Mr. Palmer, Elnaawi or Always In A Tiz and think one of them can crash the exacta.

I may try with Mr. Palmer who is coming along nicely for Mott. Problems are that he's likely to be WAY back early (10+ lengths imo) and he'll have to run down some serious colts. Class is the other obvious question - he upped his game first out vs winners in the Private Terms and made it look easy...but he was supposed to blast that field. Pace will be legit today and he will make his run, but unless some big players falter he may not be good enough for a top 2 finish.
Normandy has also been a back of the pack runner, but i smell a change in running styles today with that worktab, Javier up, and 2nd off the layoff.
He better not try to go with Verrazano early, but i have him as a midpack runner today (5 lengths back or so).
Verrazano may fall into the lead if Freedom Child isn't sharp out of the gate.
We all know what he can do - no need to add anymore - he's a big player.
Seems as though Vyjack is gonna be a bit overlooked (based on what i've seen and read so far). He too is unbeaten - stretched out very nicely in the Jerome and won the fight. Got a needed rest and came back good again in the Gotham. Worktab is solid and evidently he can win from anywhere...E, P or C....and he's proven carrying today's weight of 123lbs.
Elnaawi is 2nd lasix but runs on even weights with Vyjack today - needs better than his last, and that may come, but i'll pass.

I'll try this:
ex: 2-5 w 2-5-6-8
tri: 8 w 2-5-6 w 2-4-5-6
win: 2 or 5 (depending on odds ofcourse)

Good luck

:5: Vyjack
if he is ready lights out baby!!!!!!!!!

:1::3::2:

I have 8 - Verrazano, 9 - Go Get The Basil, 2 - Normandy Invasion, 5 - Vyjack, in that grade order. I need 4/1 odds for any bets on these (9 is going to qualify for sure). Verrazano and maybe Vyjack will be too low, so will probably end up betting 9 and 2, if they are 4/1 or higher.

Good stuff. As porchy44 noted earlier, the :9: catches the eye as a possible longshot with his previous speed figure. We'll see.

Heck, I might just take the rest of the card off, I've already hit races 3 and 4. $10.40 and $30.60. For the RS users, I'm playing the newest ranking column "1stAndLast" for purses under $200,000, and "FVIV" over $200,000.

Going against the chalk today. Verrazano could get a dream trip...and I don't think the distance is going to be a problem...he's getting better as the distance gets longer...BUT...it's a big field and there are a couple of decent horses in here...he's worth a bet against as the prohibitive favorite IMO...

:5:
:2:
:4:
:8:

The :4: will definitely be a bet, along with probably the :2: as Vyjack is likely to be overbet...

:8::10::5::2: wood



http://www.fotoshack.us/fotos/32979r...afe_banner.jpg

good time to mention my 5 winners today...

I really hope you're right, that's the way i see it. :ThmbUp:

Maybe for a rich guy like you who has money to throw away. ;) Personally, I think none of these horses is going to beat Verrazzno and his odds do not make him a win bet. What to do? Since I did not have time to go to the track or OTB and since our wonderful Illinois Legislature has not seen fit to reauthorize ADW wagering this is all academic. I will bet Verrazano on top in some exactas. The most logical horse to finish second would be Vyjack, but his odds will also be low so I will eliminate him. Also going to eliminate Normandy Invasion. That leaves me with Lu Palmer and Elnaawi.

So, 20 pretend dollar exacta 8 with 6 and 10 dollar pretend exacta 8 with 4.
If I win, pretend drinks are on me.

Fun stuff - I put my micro money on :8: I love this board.

After a second look you guys mentioned the :4: Elnaawi. He's not bad. Could certainly be in the mix. I overlooked the first time.


love the odds on my :10:, but he's going to be wide again. Should still compete.

:2: Normandy Invasion looks to be the Underlay, and may finish off the board, but it's really tough to toss him completely with confidence. He kind of encourages adding an extra horse in exactas, with him being the last add.

I like the 3 to win and play an exacta key 3 with 2,5,8 and reverse.

TD

NORMANDY INVASION

:2: :4: :6: exacta box
win on :6: MR PALMER

I guess i am going for Mr. Palmer to take down the big V's

come on lucky number :6: :jump:

6 to win

small exactas

6 / 2,4,5,7,8

2,4,5,7,8 / 6

$1 exacta box 6,9

Can Normandy Invasion break decently? Could / should be the difference maker for him today.

3/1 sucks

Always in a Tiz is interesting at over 30/1 imo.

Must stay away from the 8-5 / 5-8 combo.

The 8-2 wasn't much better. :D

trifecta :8: w/ :2::4::5::6::10: w/:2::4::5::6::10:

good race

top 3 ran pretty good
v is legit

The other V is wasting his time going to Kentucky.
He has zero shot. He was exposed today.
Normandy Invasion looked very good - he will pass the Good V at 10 furlongs.
That 49 pace was an embarrassment. You will see a lot of tails going 49 at CD.

Yes, it was a good race, too bad the odds were so low. Had the top 3, like you, in my 4 contenders but couldn't bet Verrazano to win due to odds.

The only thing that sucks about Normandy Invasions effort is he will now be the official wise guy horse.

Verrazano looked like he exploded at first asking, and I thought the race might be over, but then the finish was solid.

Looked like Normandy Invasion ran very well today. I had written him off, but have to consider him now.

We've got a handful of really good 3yos setting up for this triple crown.

Some thoughts
 

None of the horses which ran in the Santa Anita Derby will finish in the top five in the Kentucky Derby.
Normandy Invasion is one of those horses whose next race will always be the one.
Verrazano would have been better served in the Wood if Valazquez had allowed him to go to the lead.
Right now Orb and Verrazano are the only horses I would consider to win the Derby.
I will be giving Java's War a long look underneath in the exotics.
Even though Aqueduct is a much slower track than Santa Anita, Verrazano ran a much faster final three eighths than Goldencents-36.53 to 38.29.
The Wood will be a major factor in moving Verrazano forward, particularly that final three eighths.

Wood Memorial
 

I don't come to that conclusion; I would say we have a handful of CLOSELY MATCHED 3yos setting up for this triple crown.

Verrazano's closing numbers have been improving with every race, so it's not a surprise to see him put in a respectable final three furlongs...btw, each of the first four quarters of the Wood was run faster than the previous quarter (except the first of course... :lol: )...you don't see that every day...

This should be one tough horse in the Derby...

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Better rethink a lot of this because I agree with a lot of it. Especially sentence one.

I did not realize that. Thanks for pointing it out. Quick quiz. Which famous "Big Red" triple crown winner did the same thing in his Kentucky Derby?

We'll be geniuses together. At least until May 3.

Florida/New York prepped winner
 

I fully agree that the Calif. horses look way over matched this year.

There are at least a half dozen horses who look stronger that spent their winters in Florida, or New York.

Neither Baffert, nor O'Neill, will have a runner going off at single digit odds.

The one horse who may offer value on the day is Itsmyluckyday.
There will be a lot more hype on numerous others.