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-   -   Mandatory Rainbow pay-off 1/28 GS (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143008)

sammy the sage 01-27-2018 07:48 AM

Mandatory Rainbow pay-off 1/28 GS
 
any handicapping thoughts...pool will be well over 10 million...don't think it will hit by single person on Pegasus day 1/27...

Sun's card looks a bit rough...much like Fri.'s 1/26 was....but that one ended up VERY formful....only 1 price in the sequence...VERY unusual for that type of card at THAT track...probably be different this time around...

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 09:40 AM

IMHO, I believe it will take 3 (maybe even 4) bombs of 15/1 or higher and one out of nowhere 50/1 or higher bomber in order for somebody to take it down today.

I also think it will take Gun Runner getting beat along with no other favorites winning. $3.6 million carryover. Add in Pegasus Day money, and there will be crazy tickets in this pool today.

RunForTheRoses 01-27-2018 04:31 PM

It could be hit with that $120 horse today, maybe not but...

Tom 01-27-2018 04:48 PM

Buy Power Ball tics.

Robert Fischer 01-27-2018 05:44 PM

All horses except the 1 singing bullet are covered in the 50c P5, so I'm guessing the Rainbow has multiple winners.

Could be wrong. I can't see the P6 will pay info

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 05:48 PM

:8: War Story is the only jackpot

Good luck to that ticket:ThmbUp:

GMB@BP 01-27-2018 05:54 PM

is this a 2 dollar pick 6 wager?

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2267545)
is this a 2 dollar pick 6 wager?

Not sure if serious, but a $.20 Gulfstream Pick 6.

Carries over to tomorrow for a mandatory payout which had $3.6 Million in the kitty before today.

GMB@BP 01-27-2018 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker (Post 2267559)
Not sure if serious, but a $.20 Gulfstream Pick 6.

Carries over to tomorrow for a mandatory payout which had $3.6 Million in the kitty before today.

I wagered on my first GP race in 5 years today (and won).

I dont follow the circuit or chase bets like the Rainbow 6 which is straight up a stupid wager (carryover wise)

So yea, seriously, I know little about the bet.

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2267564)
I wagered on my first GP race in 5 years today (and won).

I dont follow the circuit or chase bets like the Rainbow 6 which is straight up a stupid wager (carryover wise)

So yea, seriously, I know little about the bet.

OK. I wasn't trying to be an asshole, I honestly assumed you knew about the wager.

It is on any horse racing site I see.

I threw a couple of nickels at it today for craps and giggles. Tomorrow is the real wager in which it is a mandatory payout with $3.9 million already in the kitty.

GMB@BP 01-27-2018 06:14 PM

4 dirt sprints and only 2 turf races.

I might put in a few hundred combos with the mandatory payout. Its getting hit but if there really is 10 million in the pool its not possible for it to be an overlay.

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2267574)
4 dirt sprints and only 2 turf races.

I might put in a few hundred combos with the mandatory payout. Its getting hit but if there really is 10 million in the pool its not possible for it to be an overlay.

You could dead chalk it with top 2 horses for $12.60 and take down a 5 figure haul.

sammy the sage 01-27-2018 06:37 PM

so some interesting discussion...but NO handicapping....as of YET...sssooooo then I'll go 1st....

the 11th is a key race...got a 2/1 shot..(#2)....who'll be bet down to 4/5...looks like a 4/5...BBBBuuuuuuutttttttttt.....it's a cheap race...so...do you single and say everything will be on the up and up...or do you play an All here...????

Thought they would seal the track today....they did not...wondering about tomorrow...also...strong cross wind will be in tomorrow....if they do seal it...early speed will be double dangerous....

Lemon Drop Husker 01-27-2018 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage (Post 2267610)
so some interesting discussion...but NO handicapping....as of YET...sssooooo then I'll go 1st....

the 11th is a key race...got a 2/1 shot..(#2)....who'll be bet down to 4/5...looks like a 4/5...BBBBuuuuuuutttttttttt.....it's a cheap race...so...do you single and say everything will be on the up and up...or do you play an All here...????

Thought they would seal the track today....they did not...wondering about tomorrow...also...strong cross wind will be in tomorrow....if they do seal it...early speed will be double dangerous....

No offense, but why would anybody want to give insights to their competitors in a $10 Million dollar pool?

I have no problem putting out selections in any race. But a multi-race life changing type scenario doesn't rate very high on my list.

RunDustyRun 01-27-2018 07:10 PM

I understand some despise red boarding and I'm not trying to be rude but I hit it today on an 80 ticket...liked the bomb as she looked great schooling the other day and then Aaron verrycruse was touting her on xbtv...of course like most horseplayers I can't get past the fact that I replaced her on what would have been a winning pick five ticket at the last minute and that the :3: couldn't get past the :8: in the first leg...could have been a really good day...good luck to all playing tomorrow

GMB@BP 01-27-2018 08:04 PM

I am just starting to handicap it, i have no issue posting opinions but it wont be until i finalize tomorrow.

I dont handicap gp, gonna assume any trainer with +.25 win percentage is on the take and must use no matter what the form.

sammy the sage 01-28-2018 08:49 AM

Well Lemon Drop Husker...I hope you HAVE that secret 10 million dollar ++ horse that NOBODY else handicapped....really...:pound:

Personally...think this will pay between $15 & $30 K...although last big one paid $85K...plenty to go around...:headbanger:

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...

GMB@BP 01-28-2018 10:43 AM

I couldnt get it down to a reasonable amount of combos, so its a pass for me.

Very tricky sequence. I thought there was maybe one single, in then 10th I think it was the #2 horse who is 2/1. He looks to be the speed and just better than these, but he does have the outside horse to deal with who outran him last time.

The other races, which feature some really bad horses, seem like wide open crap shoots.

AskinHaskin 01-28-2018 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage (Post 2267921)

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...


That horse is a puzzler...

Ward, obviously a fine trainer, is still 3-for-last-74 when going 2 or more turns on the GP turf.

But this individual has been working in tandem, and keeping up with Delectation, who won a trio of Gr III stakes in Germany and in Scotland, and who raced evenly in U.S. bow behind Zipessa in a stakes at KEE on October 7.


Such a challenge...

JohnGalt1 01-28-2018 12:27 PM

I just put my bets in for today's races.

I bet a horse or horses to win in 5 races. Races 4,11,12 I bet 2 horses to win.

Races 6,7, and 9 anyone can win in my opinion.

The ticket I did NOT play would be all/5/all/2/1,2,4/8,9,15. And I'm not that confident with the 3 horses in the last leg. I would have singled Sandru in the last race if he wasn't scratched.

I've learned through experience not to cut out horses for a cheaper ticket.

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 01:33 PM

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2ih87z7.jpg

RAINBOW 6 MANDATORY PAYOUT DAY

SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS (Races 7-12)

Race 7: 1 Mile Turf 36k purse Starter Allowance for older F/M.
A's=4,6,7 , B's=2,5,8,9 , C=3.
As you can see, this race requires a level of coverage. :4: and :6: are obvious contenders. I'm using the :7: as an A after she won her last race against the post-position bias.

Race 8: 7.5F Turf 61kN1x purse for 3yo Fillies.
A's=1,2,6,8 , B's=4,5 , C=3.
This race has two 'true' A's; :6: NOOTKA SOUND a talented Ward filly, and :8: (10/1ml!)DARK ARTIST for Jane Cibelli. Because of the short run to the first turn, and the nature of the ticket, I've upgraded two B's to the A designation. :1: CAMILA PRINCESS is stepping up in class and hopes to get a good trip to have a chance to contend. May be worth leaning against in single-race bets. :2: HONEY GRAEME has some value as a relatively talented 1st-turf filly. :4: ANABELLA QUEEN is worth a mention, although designated as a 'B'. She ran well against the post-position bias last time.

Race 9: 5.5F 21k purse for 3yo mdn clm.
A's=1,4 , B's=7,9 , C's=2,3,5,6.
Hopefully the high morning line scares players away from using :1: ATTORNEY AL(10-1!) as an 'A'. :4: Dreaming of Jo Jo has a good chance of running them off their feet save the 1.

Race 10: 5.5F 19k purse, Claiming 6250 F/M.
A'S=2 , B's=3,8 , C's=4,5.
Aptly named :2: FIRST DISTINCTION is also our first single. Lot of tickets will be riding on this horse. May be a race where contrarians will want to string some coverage to their other A's, hoping for chaos.

Race 11: 6F 36K purse Starter Allowance for 3YO Fillies.
A's=2,4 , B's=6,7 , C's=5
:4: DANCE RHYTHMS looks strong.

Race 12: 6.5F 29k purse Claiming 6250 for 4yo+.
A's=8,9,12,14,15 , C's=1.
This race simply has no true 'A' horse. :8: PADEN is perhaps the closest resemblance and could be a single/lean/prayer for the bare-minimum budget tickets. Fourteen unreliable bottom claimers try to sprint 6.5 furlongs, and we may see the race fall apart.

Good Luck!

GMB@BP 01-28-2018 02:30 PM

Good luck, that ticket is 2300 +/- for 0.20. Hope it doesnt chalk out and returns for you.

Seems like the 2 in the 10th is a very common single. It would be nice to see if you one could stand with another single and spread that race because if a longer priced horse wins it its going to make the payoff really worth it.

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2268075)
Good luck, that ticket is 2300 +/- for 0.20. Hope it doesnt chalk out and returns for you.

Seems like the 2 in the 10th is a very common single. It would be nice to see if you one could stand with another single and spread that race because if a longer priced horse wins it its going to make the payoff really worth it.

$1,205.60 for the whole ticket pictured.
(could 'emphasize' just the A's x3(60cents) for another $100($48 each 20c) (1,301.60).

Just the 'A's are $48.

A's+1b aprox $350.

This is a major carryover day, so the ticket is designed for pros or groups.


I agree that the 10th is interesting. If the 2 loses the 10th, it's going be a big boost to the payouts and is a chance for a player on a budget do something like string other A's while using maybe 5 horses in the 10th, hoping for an upset.






http://i67.tinypic.com/zlyjc5.jpg

Poindexter 01-28-2018 03:03 PM

Okay here are my fwiw top contenders. 1 A choice and B choices in each race(post positon order not order of preference).

7th A) 4 B)5-7-9
8th A) 6 B)1-4-8
9th A) 4) B) 6-7-9
10th A) 2 B)3-5-7-8
11th A)7 B)2-3-4
12th) A)8 B)9-12-15

As far as legit singles there really are none. Stongest A choice would be in the 7th, next best the 10th but he is beaten chalk almost every time he run.

Good luck here.

sammy the sage 01-28-2018 03:10 PM

So am going to post my WISH tix before post....as am NOT playing...(no way to play currently...ie...money not the issue...will leave it at that..)...if it comes in...will be majorly :puke::puke::puke::pout::mad::mad:

7th...4,5,7
8th...6,8
9th...1,4,5,7,9,
10th..ALL 8 horses
11th..2,4,6,7
12th..4,8,14

$576 cost

B.O.L. all

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 03:16 PM

Good luck everyone!

sammy the sage 01-28-2018 03:47 PM

Nice call poindexter....now maybe...JUST maybe....Husker can tell us which horse is the $20 million dollar horse..???:rolleyes:

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 04:26 PM

Poindexter's ticket is looking very good.

In race 9, the :4: is obvious. I was hoping that the :1: will pull a 'Navarro'. Not getting bet down on the board. I don't know if that's a bad sign, but it's not a positive that I was sort of expecting (5-1, 6-1 range?).
:4: is a bit 'antsy' on the track, I don't know if he's always nervous? Could get interesting.
I know I'm rooting for 4 or 1 here. Need another 'A' leg.

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 05:13 PM

4 down... 2 to Go!
 
Can easily lose with an 'X' or a 'C'. I'll be happy if I hit, even for a loss(and then kick myself for not 'emphasizing' combos such as everyone's single :2: FIRST DISTINCTION...), however I can afford 1 more 'B', so seeing that I have spread A's in the last race, I'm rooting for a 'B' here in race 11. :6:STARCLOUD may be the best possibility.


Also rooting for Poindexter, jay68802 and anyone else still alive :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

GMB@BP 01-28-2018 05:21 PM

So far all the winners are very logical, had I played my 1200 dollar ticket I would be 47/47..but I would think i may be hard pressed to break even unless the longer prices were to hit. I have no feel for these things, maybe a lot money was spent trying to hit the longest tix.

linrom1 01-28-2018 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2268263)
So far all the winners are very logical, had I played my 1200 dollar ticket I would be 47/47..but I would think i may be hard pressed to break even unless the longer prices were to hit. I have no feel for these things, maybe a lot money was spent trying to hit the longest tix.

It's a $20million boondoggle.:D:D:D ....people spending thousands for a ticket that could be had for less than $50. The math didn't make any sense: you have a $4million carryover with $16million NEW money wagered?

GMB@BP 01-28-2018 05:59 PM

35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

Robert Fischer 01-28-2018 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2268303)
35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

Agreed. That was pretty much impossible to use.

Only logical way to have hit that would be on a ticket that singled a couple horses and mashed the 'all' button...

Denny 01-28-2018 06:07 PM

Has to make you wonder if these type of bets are worth it?

Need a 35/1 to to win for a 15k payoff!

AltonKelsey 01-28-2018 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denny (Post 2268306)
Has to make you wonder if these type of bets are worth it?

Need a 35/1 to to win for a 15k payoff!

uh, thats for 20c

linrom1 01-28-2018 06:11 PM

You do realize that both 8 and the 9 had one of the lowest Pick 5 payouts.

GP is more crooked than Penn! The home of falling jockeys and horses never getting out of the gate.

garyscpa 01-28-2018 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2268303)
35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

Most lightly raced horse in a field of broken down claiming horses.

RunForTheRoses 01-28-2018 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by linrom1 (Post 2268314)
You do realize that both 8 and the 9 had one of the lowest Pick 5 payouts.

GP is more crooked than Penn! The home of falling jockeys and horses never getting out of the gate.

That was bullshit, was alive with 8 9 12 14 on a $153 ticket, that start was uh just a little strange. In retrospect 5 wasn't that crazy but would he really have gotten an easy lead if 8 and 9 broke OK.

Was fun for a little while...

RunForTheRoses 01-28-2018 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyscpa (Post 2268323)
Most lightly raced horse in a field of broken down claiming horses.

Had speed too, two back had bad start but...would he have gotten such an easy lead if 8 and 9 broke OK?

TMQ 01-28-2018 06:25 PM

I'm pretty shocked with the :5: winning the last leg at 35-1 it only paid $15,000


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