Massive early show bet
 

Hi guys,

What do you think of a morning line favorite that immediately gets a big show bet? Does this mean that they think the horse won't win? Are they confident that the horse will win but at extremely low odds such that win payouts will be about the same as show payout? Would appreciate your help in interpreting this.

Thanks!

Sometimes it's just an ultra consistent type that fits the race extremely well but strongly prefers to run second or third. A horse like that might be crushed to show. Not that there's any value in it ... like $2.40 would be a gift :)

I feel like when there is a huge pool to show it is a bet that show bettors know that they can cash easily since the horse has a high %tage to get 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Maybe they are trying to scare off the fellow bridge jumpers, hoping that $2.10 will creep up.

They want to encourage $$$$$ bet on other horses by the contingent of bridge jumpers beaters.

1-100 the horse has a chance

K I S S method :kiss::kiss:

Thanks, everyone! The horse finished second. I bet several horses to show and it didn't pan out. Oh well.

And that answers your question. The bridgejumper hopes lots of folks do what you did. Even if it increases their value 20 cents, they make out big.

Sometimes it just indicates someone has some cash to launder. They don't file an explanation sheet with the bet.

I like this take on your question.

I had never considered this scenario but say I bet $100K to show on a horse at a small track that didn't take much money. It would encourage people to bet that horse to win or place. Two minutes to post, I remove the $100K bet and bet $2K to show. The horse pays $3.00 and I make a $1K on a horse I may have made $100.

I would hope to God that there are people watching to make sure this doesn't happen. But it could as I understand the system today.

-Mick

I think the term bridgejumper may have different meanings to different people here. In my mind if you're "bridgejumping" you're looking to make your 5% (or 10% in WV & wherever else) and don't give a damn about the rest of the pool. I think this hoping a payout creeps up a dime/pool manipulation talk is completely irrelevant when it comes to this type of bet.

Actually, odds manipulation could take another form. In my scenario, say people do as I suggest and start betting WP on a horse I don't like. That drives up the odds on other horses and I remove my unwanted large wager 2 minutes to post and bet the horse I like at better odds. It sounds ridiculous to me that someone would do this as there is a risk you take but I think it could happen.

The parimutual system with this on line bets should have algorithms to look for foul play. I doubt that they do but it would be interesting to know.

I tracked large, early show bets about 20 years ago, for several years. The ROI was negative, for the Santa Anita - Hollywood - Del Mar circuit. The only bet that was reliable, and it was rarely made, was when Bruce Headley was the trainer.

Not sure what the policies are on internet wagers and other tracks, but Lone Star has a sign saying no refunds over $500.

Years ago, at Finger Lakes, an enormous show bet was made on an obvious favorite, however this horse was half of an entry. The ENTRY MATE bumped another horse hard mid back stretch, almost knocking him down, while the favorite cruised to an easy win.

Rules of racing: what part of an entry does affects the the parimutuel on BOTH. So, the entry was DQ'd to fifth (have to be placed behind the horse that the 1A interfered with)