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- General Handicapping Discussion (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2)

- - What effects the odds mostly (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=74812)

misscashalot

09-02-2010 06:17 PM

What effects the odds mostly

Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?

Overlay

09-02-2010 06:43 PM

Figures (especially Beyers)

thaskalos

09-02-2010 09:16 PM

Sharp early speed, when combined with a 2+ level drop in class.

BELMONT 6-6-09

09-02-2010 09:19 PM

Hot jockeys and/or trainers can really pack an influence on the toteboard ie.Canani @ Arlington.

DeanT

09-02-2010 09:37 PM

From my DB, I would have to agree with Overlay. Speed figs.

If you had a two horse race and one horse was a 90 and one an 80, but the 80 was dropping in class with a hot new trainer, people would still make the 90 the chalk, I believe. The pull of the "fastest horse" will always win out. jmo

thaskalos

09-02-2010 09:47 PM

If the high beyer horses are going up in class, they are rarely favored...and they seldom win.

IMO, class is still the most influencial factor out there, as far as odds are concerned.

Just look at what happens when a horse with mediocre figures ships from a major to a minor track.

The "high class" shipper has much inferior numbers than the other horses...but gets bet "off the board".

DeanT

09-02-2010 10:55 PM

I dunno Thask.

For 2010.

Code:

By: Class Shift (Using Purse Value)

 

         Class Shift (PV)           Gain           Bet           Roi   Wins  Plays         Pct         Impact

                                    0   -3848.50  26684.00        0.8558   4884  13342   .3661         0.9902  no change

                                    1   -1615.40  11062.00        0.8540   1997   5531   .3611         0.9766  class riser

                                    2   -3876.70  26594.00        0.8542   5012  13297   .3769         1.0196  class dropper

For top fig horses

Code:

Rank           Gain           Bet           Roi   Wins  Plays         Pct         Impact

                                    1   -3107.00  26846.00        0.8843   5540  13423   .4127         1.1164  

                                    2   -1783.00  13542.00        0.8683   2522   6771   .3725         1.0075  

                                    3   -1478.80   8600.00        0.8280   1472   4300   .3423         0.9260  

                                    4   -1119.80   6044.00        0.8147        974   3022   .3223         0.8718

Robert Goren

09-02-2010 11:10 PM

"Smart Money" If the word is out on a horse, it will get bet regardless of any other factors. This is true everywhere, from Saratoga to Fonner Park and every place in between.

Ocala Mike

09-03-2010 07:41 AM

What effects the odds mostly

An "in the money" finish in the horse's last race is still a huge factor in influencing its odds.

Ocala Mike

SMOO	09-03-2010 10:19 AM

"What effects the odds mostly"

I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.

misscashalot

09-03-2010 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMOO

"What effects the odds mostly"

I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.

I knew there was a brilliant player out there somewhere. :lol:

Fingal

09-03-2010 11:02 AM

The flavor of the month ( or week ) when it comes to jockey & trainer.

46zilzal

09-03-2010 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by misscashalot

Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?

Last Line itis

Stillriledup

09-03-2010 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by misscashalot

Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?

What appears to be lone speed, OR, a horse ridden by the leading rider and trained by the leading trainer at the meet.

skate

09-03-2010 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMOO

"What effects the odds mostly"

I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.

What about the amount Not bet on the horse?

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